500
FXUS61 KBUF 051846
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
146 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Well below normal temperatures will last into the start of next
week, first through the day today with what has been the coldest
airmass of the season thus far, then followed by another shot of
arctic air starting Sunday night. Dry weather is expected for today
as high pressure quickly crosses the region. Snow returns for
Saturday afternoon in the form of lake enhanced/effect ahead of and
with a passing cold front. Another round of more widespread snow is
possible Sunday afternoon/night with a weak passing surface low that
will also have lake enhanced snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly clear and dry on this chilly Friday afternoon as temperatures
remain in the 20s for most of western and north-central NY. A few
light snow showers could sneak into portions of Niagara Co late this
afternoon as southerly flow has brought lake enhancement into the
Niagara Peninsula. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions expected under
high pressure that is now beginning to exit the eastern seaboard.

A progressive shortwave ejecting out of the midwest will bring a
cold front toward the area associated with the larger scale
troughing over central Canada and the upper Great Lakes. Ahead of
the front, southwesterly winds along with 850mb temps around 7-8
degC below zero will be supportive enough for some lake
enhanced/effect snow showers initially northeast of Lake Erie and
Ontario.

Off Lake Erie, shallow moisture profiles with lake induced ELs only
slightly climbing above 5 kft and notable shear within the 925-850mb
layer will limit anticipated snowfall. However, there will still be
a period Saturday afternoon for locally moderate snowfall to develop
northeast of the lake before shifting east of the lakes as winds
veer behind the frontal passage. Latest NBM has snowfall totals from
under an inch to up to 2 inches, but it is worth noting that the
experimental NBM`s 90th percentile snowfall totals do exceed 3
inches across the Buffalo metro northeast towards Genesee Co.
Remaining bands of snow will continue through the evening and
overnight mainly across Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Co, through ELs
remain marginal with little/no saturation within the DGZ limiting
snowfall rates.

Off Lake Ontario, similar environmental conditions expected with
marginal lake enhanced boundary conditions. Forecast soundings
suggest slightly deeper profiles likely due to initial upstream
connection to the Lake Erie band and then possibly with Lake Huron
in the post frontal passage environment. Snowfall will initially
form up near Watertown around mid-afternoon before focusing mainly
east of the lake into the Tug Hill region with a couple inches
likely through early Sunday morning at higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A broad area of low pressure extending from the Ohio Valley into the
central Great Lakes will gradually become better organized while
lifting northeastward into our region during Sunday...before sliding
east across New England and out to sea Sunday night. Increasing
moisture/convergence attendant to the surface low and DCVA aloft out
ahead of a supporting northern stream shortwave will help to
generate a period of fairly widespread light to modest snowfall
Sunday afternoon and evening. The snow will then diminish to some
leftover flurries and scattered light snow showers overnight Sunday
night as an upslope northerly flow of much colder and drier air
overspreads our region following the passage of the surface low.
With this package...the guidance suite has trended a bit further
north overall with the track of the surface low...resulting in a
commensurate modest decrease in snowfall amounts from what was
previously suggested over the last 24 hours. Amounts generally now
look to be in the 1-3" range in most areas...save for the higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario where some 3-4" amounts still appear
possible.

Cold northerly upslope flow and lingering low level moisture will
then keep scattered light snow showers/flurries going south of the
lakes (particularly Lake Ontario) Monday morning...before building
low level ridging finally shuts these down from west to east Monday
afternoon. Otherwise Monday will easily feature our coldest daytime
highs of the young winter season so far...with highs only expected
to range from the upper teens across the North Country and higher
terrain south of Lake Ontario to the lower 20s elsewhere. Good
radiational cooling under the surface ridge will then allow temps to
tumble into the single digits to around 10 above south of Lake
Ontario and to below zero across portions of the North Country
Monday evening...before developing southerly return flow on the
backside of the departing ridge allows readings to begin rising
from west to east overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rather active/progressive pattern looks to continue through this
period with a veritable parade of shortwaves/attendant surface lows
crossing our region...with an initial weak system Tuesday looking to
be followed by a stronger surface low Wednesday...and then yet
another system arriving toward the end of the period...with each
likely to bring a period of fairly widespread precipitation.

With a cold enough airmass remaining in place...the first weak
system merely looks to produce some light snow on Tuesday...mainly
during the afternoon/evening. The second system should then bring
warmer temperatures Wednesday...though exactly how much warming (and
thus the exact pcpn types) we`ll see remains questionable with the
guidance suite offering low tracks ranging anywhere from a Georgian
Bay-Ottawa Valley axis (GFS) to right along the New York State
Thruway (ECMWF). For now have leaned toward recent trends/continuity
which suggest snow Tuesday night changing to a mix of mainly lower
elevation rain and higher elevation rain/snow during Wednesday...
though this exact scenario remains far from a lock given the above
uncertainty in the low track and still-early juncture.

In the wake of this second low...a shot of colder air should then
bring at least some renewed lake effect snow potential to areas
downwind of the lakes later Wednesday night into Thursday...before
the third system arrives late in the week with what appears to be
another round of snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions currently across area terminals with FEW-SCT passing
high clouds as well as BKN-OVC low level cloud cover moving up from
the south across the Southern Tier and into the Finger Lakes region
early this afternoon. Increasing cloud cover northeast of Lake Erie
may lead to MVFR ceilings over KIAG late this afternoon through this
evening with overall increasing cloud cover overnight. Lake effect
snow showers will develop Saturday morning northeast of the Lakes
with localized IFR conditions in moderate snowfall developing by
midday. This includes KBUF and KART before snow bands begin to shift
east of the lakes headed into the evening.

Outlook...

Saturday Night...Mainly VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow
showers. Localized IFR within lake effect snow east of the lakes

Sunday...Widespread snow showers with IFR/MVFR conditions.

Monday...Lingering lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario with
localized MVFR possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
With a cold front approaching and crossing the area Saturday from
the northwest, winds will start to increase across both lakes early
Saturday morning, continuing into at least the evening on Saturday.
SCA conditions will be possible during that time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...Brothers
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...Brothers/SW