274
FXUS61 KBUF 080608
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
208 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing heat this week. Heat indices could reach the mid 90s
by the end of next week.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return mid-
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing heat this week. Heat indices could reach
the mid 90s by the end of next week.

Mid level will build into the eastern Great Lakes early this week.
Surface high pressure will move across the Northeast, before
settling off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday. Mid-level flow
will veer through Tuesday and warm air will move into the
region. The mid level ridge axis will cross the region Tuesday
and warm air advection will strengthen. A warming trend is
expected through Tuesday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s,
potentially hitting the low 90s across the lake plains and
valleys in the Finger Lakes region. Lower maximum temperatures
are expected near the lakeshores.

As the ridge breaks down across the region the second half of the
work week, increasing clouds and increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms will bring maximum temperatures slightly down
Wednesday. Warm and moist conditions are expected to linger into
Thursday and Friday, however confidence is lower due to an unsettled
period. Heat headlines are possible for some locations across the
area late in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
return mid-week.

A shortwave trough will approach the region with warm and moist
area spreading across the region late Tuesday through Wednesday
morning, increasing the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A mid-level ridge is expected to move into the
region towards the end of the week, however the warm and moist
airmass will reside across the region. Shear profiles look weak
weak through Thursday night. The primary impact from any showers
or thunderstorms will be heavy rain, as PWAT values are expected
to exceed 1.5", which is above the 90th percentile for this time
of year. Drier air is expected to move into the region for the
start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found as a deep upper
level trough and its associated cloud cover slides eastward, with a
fair weather ridge nudging towards the eastern Great Lakes region.

Some fog will form through early this morning, especially in the So.
Tier river valleys and the Black River valley east of Lake Ontario
where recent rain/wet ground will be conducive for fog formation.
Fog here will likely remain just to the SE of KART, through the
restricted valley through the night. For KJHW, a decent flow of
8-12 knots through the boundary layer will likely produce enough
mixing and prevent the river valley fog from encroaching up and
over the airport, but will place a VCFG into the TAF as it will
be nearby.

Otherwise VFR flight conditions the remainder of this TAF cycle
with a light wind influence this afternoon by local lake breeze
effects.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier
showers or storms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into the lower Great Lakes will maintain
quiet conditions through early next week, with generally light to
modest winds and minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA