Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
836 FXUS61 KBUF 070118 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 918 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated forecast to account for a small...slowly weakening cluster of showers/thunderstorms still holding together over the Niagara Peninsula. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Some showers across the North Country this evening, then mainly dry weather returns for Sunday through early next week along with warming temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Some showers across the North Country this evening, then mainly dry weather returns for Sunday through early next week along with warming temperatures. Over the past couple hours have been watching a small cluster of showers/thunderstorms dropping southeastward across the Golden Horseshoe region of southern Ontario...and while this recently has weakened/become more disorganized overall...radar trends suggest that at least some of this will survive long enough to make it into extreme far WNY late this evening...and have therefore updated the forecast to better account for this. Otherwise... The axis of a mid-level trough will cross the North Country this evening...with associated DCVA and deeper moisture bringing a round of short-lived but fairly widespread showers...with some leftover weak instability possibly supporting a couple isolated rumbles of thunder. The showers will then diminish later this evening and overnight as the trough axis and slug of deeper moisture slides off to our east...with leftover moisture and cyclonic flow possibly supporting a few more widely scattered showers across the North Country during Sunday. Otherwise mainly dry and uneventful weather will prevail tonight through Sunday as surface-based ridging over the upper Great Lakes and southern Ontario settles across our region...with dry weather then continuing into the early portions of the new work week as the surface ridge drifts to the east coast... and as a sharp upper level ridge builds overhead. The next chance for precipitation still looks to arrive across far WNY later Tuesday...as the next mid-level trough and its attendant plume of moisture slowly pushes eastward from the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes. After a day of comfortable temperatures (highs in the 70s) on Sunday...building heights/warming temperatures aloft will allow for a day-to-day warming trend Monday and Tuesday...with humidity levels also climbing to moderate levels during Tuesday. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A passing mid-level trough axis will produce fairly widespread showers across the North Country this evening...with the showers then diminishing late this evening and overnight following its passage. Lingering moisture and cyclonic flow may then produce a few more widely scattered showers across the North Country on Sunday...with mainly dry conditions expected elsewhere through the remainder of the TAF period. In terms of flight conditions...there is fairly high confidence that the North Country will see a period of MVFR ceilings (with patchy IFR ceilings across the higher terrain) from tonight through at least the early afternoon hours of Sunday...with building surface- based ridging then bringing about a return to VFR later Sunday and Sunday evening. Elsewhere conditions will start out VFR this evening...with nocturnal cooling/lingering low level moisture then possibly leading to a period of at least some patchy IFR/MVFR stratus and/or fog overnight into early Sunday morning...though the exact extent of this remains questionable as of this writing. Potential for this currently looks to be greatest across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and interior of the Finger Lakes... though cannot rule out some lower ceilings making it into the KBUF/KROC terminals for at least a brief period very late tonight/early Sunday morning. Whatever stratus/fog does form overnight will then give way to VFR conditions during Sunday as the aforementioned ridge builds in and diurnal heating/mixing helps to mix out the low level moisture. Outlook... Sunday night...Mainly VFR. Monday and Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier showers or storms. && .MARINE... Winds and waves across Lake Erie...the Upper Niagara River...and western portions of Lake Ontario have diminished enough to allow the Small Craft Advisories for these areas to expire as of this writing...with a continued gradual lowering of winds and wave heights in these areas expected tonight and Sunday. Across eastern Lake Ontario...winds and waves remain higher and will continue to support SCA-level conditions through the first half of tonight...before also dropping off overnight and Sunday. Looking further ahead...generally light to modest winds and minimal waves are expected through the first half of the upcoming week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ044-045. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJR AVIATION...JJR MARINE...JJR