729
FXUS61 KBUF 031107
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
607 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Subtle changes to increase winds and gusts in the wake of a cold
frontal passage Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unusually warm weather is expected Today and Wednesday, with
forecast temperatures potentially reaching record highs for early
November.

2) High probability for widespread showers Wednesday night through
Thursday due to the passage of a cold front. Unsettled weather is
expected to continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unusually warm weather is expected Today and
Wednesday, with forecast temperatures potentially reaching record
highs for early November.

A mid-level ridge will continue to build east across the Atlantic
seaboard through mid-week, supporting surface high pressure to
persist off the eastern Atlantic. Overall this will support
generally dry weather, however weak warm air advection and
isentropic lift associated with a passing weak warm front may
generate a few widely scattered showers across western New York this
morning, reaching and then passing across eastern New York late this
morning through this afternoon. In the wake of the front, dry air
advection and subsidence will support a decrease in cloud cover from
west to east Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. A 25 to 30
knot low-level jet will move into the western Southern Tier tonight,
supporting a south-southeast surface wind within a modest inversion.
As such, gusty downslope winds of up to 30mph along and to the lee
side of the Chautauqua Ridge is likely. Gusts will lessen on the lee
side of the Ridge Wednesday.

Despite clouds and a few showers impacting the region today, 850mb
temperatures are expected to reach +12C, supporting maximum
temperatures to reach the low 70s across western New York and the
mid 60s across north-central New York. As the aforementioned ridge
builds further north Wednesday, 850mb temperatures will
continue to rise, peaking to +13C. As such another very warm day
for early November is expected, where maximum temperatures will
range in the mid to upper 70s. As winds are forecast to remain
southerly, lake breeze influences will likely be limited and
therefor allow temperatures to soar well above climatological
norms. See Climate section for more information regarding record
temperatures.

Cooler air will build into the region from west to east Thursday,
however it will remain warm especially from the Finger Lakes region
into north-central NY. Cooler weather, although still above normal
is expected Friday into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High probability for widespread showers Wednesday
night through Thursday due to the passage of a cold front. Unsettled
weather is expected to continue into the weekend.

Deep troughing and associated closed low will move into the Great
Lakes for the later half of the work week. A deep southerly flow
originating from the Gulf and southern Atlantic Ocean will support a
plume of moisture into the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday
night through Thursday morning. This deep moisture combined with
forcing from the surface to 500mb due to a passing cold front will
support widespread showers across the region, and provide some much
needed relief to the recent dry spell. However should note that the
shower`s residence timing will be quick, as the plume of
moisture will move east of the region by Thursday afternoon.
Forecast rainfall amounts will generally be less than a quarter
of an inch by Thursday afternoon.

In the wake of the cold front, expect gusty southwest winds
northeast of Lake Erie with gusts of 25 to 30 mph impacting much of
the Niagara Frontier.

The trough will move overhead Friday and this weekend, where another
cold front is progged to pass across the region, where chances for
showers are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An approaching weak warm front is supporting lowering and thickening
cloud cover as of 11Z, along with a few scattered showers across far
western New York, where MVFR or lover conditions are occurring this
morning. These clouds and showers will push northeastward this
morning reaching KART by 15Z.

In the wake of the warm frontal passage, dry air advection and
subsidence will result in any MVFR or lower VFR cloud cover to
scatter out from west to east this afternoon and evening.

VFR conditions will then persist overnight tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...Restrictions possible with showers
likely at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure centered off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic
this mornign will drift further out to sea today. As such, light to
modest south/southwesterly winds will prevail through today. Then,
southerly flow will strengthen Wednesday ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. While this may produce some modest chop
on area lakes, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A few spotty showers will be possible this morning, however
dry, warm weather and very dry fine fuels will persist through
mid-week. An initial cold front will pass across the region
Wednesday night through Thursday, supporting a better chance
for more widespread showers. Chances for showers will then
persist throughout the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Unusually warm weather across western and north-central New York
is expected Today and Wednesday. Forecast temperatures are
expected to be around 20 degrees above normal for part of the
first week of November. Here is a list of record high
temperatures, record high minimum temperatures, and normals for
the next few days.

                 Record High Temperatures(F)

                        Buffalo     Rochester    Watertown

Tuesday, November 3     80(1961)    75(1938)     74(1961)
Normal                  53          54           52

Wednesday, November 4   74(2022)    78(2015)     73(2015)
Normal                  52          54           51

                 Record High Minimum Temperatures(F)

                        Buffalo     Rochester    Watertown

Tuesday, November 3     58(1938)    58(1975)     57(1961)
Normal                  38          38           34

Wednesday, November 4   57(1935)    58(1987)     56(1987)
Normal                  38          38           33

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAL
FIRE WEATHER...EAL
CLIMATE...EAL/HSK