378
FXUS61 KBUF 060026
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
826 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased winds and gusts Saturday, especially northeast of
Lake Erie.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms return Saturday with localized heavy
downpours and an isolated severe weather risk.

2) Mainly dry weather returns Sunday through early next week with
warm temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms return Saturday with
localized heavy downpours and an isolated severe weather risk.

A mid level trough will dig into the Great Lakes and New England
Saturday through Saturday night as the pattern amplifies across the
northern tier of the US. A weak cold front will move south across
the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday through Saturday night,
although most of the showers and thunderstorms will focus on a pre-
frontal trough and local lake breeze boundaries rather than the cold
front itself.

The first round of potential showers will cross the area from west
to east late tonight through early Saturday morning as a weakening
southern stream shortwave crosses the eastern Great Lakes. The most
organized area of rain with this feature will likely be north of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario on the Canadian side of the border,
although a few showers are likely across Western NY and the eastern
Lake Ontario region as well. Instability will be very limited,
although a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

Most areas will see a return to dry weather following the early
morning batch of showers. Additional showers and thunderstorms will
then develop as DPVA and height falls ahead of the sharpening mid
level trough encounter increasing diurnal instability. A moderate
southwest flow regime will be in place Saturday, supporting
extensive stable lake shadows over and northeast of Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario. Its possible the synoptic scale forcing may overcome
the lake shadows to some extent, but the best coverage of
thunderstorms will likely be inland from the lake shadows from the
Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and southern Tug Hill region.
Coverage of rain will be very uneven, with plenty of dry time
through the day Saturday.

Forecast soundings show favorable shear profiles for organized
convection Saturday afternoon and evening, with 30-40 knots of deep
layer shear and even some favorable hodograph curvature across the
Southern Tier where greater low level shear will be found. The
degree of destabilization is more uncertain, with morning clouds and
showers possibly holding down surface temperatures in some areas. The
greater severe weather risk will likely be across the Southern Tier
and Finger Lakes where greater instability is expected away from the
stable lake shadows. The main risk will be localized damaging wind
gusts, with a lower but non-zero risk of large hail and an isolated
tornado. The main severe weather risk will be roughly 2PM to 7PM
when instability and forcing maximize. Thunderstorms will also
produce brief heavy downpours, but fast storm motion and much drier
antecedent conditions compared to a few weeks ago should keep the
flooding risk very low.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry weather returns Sunday through early next
week with warm temperatures.

The mid level trough will move east across New England Sunday,
taking the majority of the showers with it. A few showers may linger
east of Lake Ontario in moist, cyclonic northerly flow behind the
departing trough, with dry weather prevailing farther west. Morning
clouds in northerly upslope flow will give way to some clearing in
the afternoon across Western NY.

An Omega Block will develop by Sunday night over the Great Lakes,
then drift slowly east to the east coast and flatten with time
through the middle of next week. This will support dry weather and
above average temperatures Sunday night through at least Tuesday. A
mid level trough and plume of deeper moisture over the Ohio Valley
may move far enough east to bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms again by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridge axis slides east of the area tonight, making way for an
initial shortwave trough riding northeast along the back side of the
ridge to cross the area bringing the possibility for a round of
showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two second half of tonight
into the first part of Saturday morning. CIGS will thicken and lower
through the night, but are expected to remain mainly VFR, with low
VFR CIGS possible by late tonight. Any VSBY restrictions will be
limited to localized heavier showers/isolated storms. It will be
breezy as well with widespread SW to WSW winds gusting 20-25 knots,
with 30-35 knots possible northeast of Lake Erie from midday on.

Flight conditions will further deteriorate ahead of an approaching
cold front with widespread MVFR CIGS developing Saturday, and some
IFR CIGS possible across the western Southern Tier and North
Country. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop Saturday afternoon ahead of the cold front as it crosses the
area. Some storms may produce strong gusty winds. However, a stout
lake breeze will develop northeast of the lakes with a lake shadow
setting up from midday on. This will limit convection for our
KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART sites through much of afternoon, however there
is the chance for a secondary line of showers and storms to cross
the area late in the day. If the lake shadow weakens enough, a few
of these may be able to make it into these aforementioned terminals.
Expect localized IFR conditons within any heavier showers and
thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly MVFR/VFR. Localized IFR in any showers and
thunderstorms east of Lake Ontario.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier showers or storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase tonight and especially Saturday ahead
of an approaching cold front. Winds will initially be strongest on
Lake Erie, where Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely
Saturday. Winds will increase on Lake Ontario from west to east
through the day Saturday, with low end Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon and early
evening, with a few storms producing locally stronger winds and
higher waves.

The cold front will move south across the lower Great Lakes Saturday
night, with post-frontal northwest winds still producing choppy
conditions on Lake Ontario Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Hitchcock