190
FXUS61 KBUF 020952
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
452 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure will press towards our region today,
diminishing lake clouds and allow for increasing amounts of
sunshine. Afternoon temperatures will be close to normal today with
a light wind. The next storm system will arrive Monday, with a gusty
southwest wind ahead of a cold front that will bring another round
of showers through the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Regional radars display the lake response all but ended for showers
this early morning as winds begin to back and drier air flows into
our region. This dry airmass will erode the remaining lake clouds
through the day, with increasing amounts of sunshine.

Mainly clear skies tonight, though as the surface high fades to our
southeast we`ll see an increase in high level clouds later through
the night as well as an uptick in the southerly flow.

A vigorous PV anomaly down to around 500 hPa will deepen a shortwave
trough...with the PV anomaly tracking along Lake Ontario and to
points eastward. An increase in the surface pressure gradient within
the surface trough will bring gusty southwest winds to our region
Monday, with the strongest gusts found downwind of the Lower Great
Lakes where gust speeds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Ahead of a cold front rain showers will develop and pass through our
region by late morning and through the afternoon hours. Highest
chances will be towards the north, closer to the base of the mid
level trough and deeper moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level trough will move across the Northeast Monday evening.
Post-frontal conditions with elevated west-northwest flow aloft will
continue a moderate breeze (10-15 mph) overnight, especially near
the Lake Ontario shoreline. Lingering post-frontal moisture will
maintain low to medium (25-40%) chances of rain showers east of Lake
Erie and medium to high (65-80%) chances east of Lake Ontario Monday
evening. Temperatures at 850mb will fall to -3C overnight, leading
to the potential for a lake response, however a dry airmass will
build into the region. An upstream connection in combination with
winds aligned with the long axis of Lake Ontario will support a
subdued lake response southeast of Lake Ontario. Any showers
will lead to very light rainfall amounts. Low temperatures will
fall to the upper 30s to low 40s, low to mid 30s across the
higher terrain.

A uniform west-northwest flow will continue across the region
Tuesday. A strong surface high will remain across the southeast U.S.
Breezy conditions are expected across parts of the forecast area.
Mostly dry weather is expected, however there may be some lingering
lake showers east of Lake Ontario. Highs will reach the mid to upper
50s, low 50s across the North Country. Surface high pressure will
move off the east coast Tuesday night. A quick moving jet streak is
expected to move across the upper Mid-West, while a wave of low
pressure approaches the Great Lakes region. Mostly dry weather is
expected, with an increasing chance of showers late Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The pattern remains progressive going into the end of the work week
and start of next weekend. A trough is expected to move over the
Northeast, while a fast moving wave moves near the eastern Great
Lakes region Wednesday. There is decent agreement in forcing and
moisture profiles that support showers Wednesday through Wednesday
night, with snow showers mixing with rain showers across the Tug
Hill region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Surface high
pressure is expected to move into the region with a weak lake
response through Thursday.

Another trough may dig into the eastern CONUS Friday through
Saturday leading to another round of showers for the region. The
temperature outlook shows no big swings in temperatures, with
maximum and minimum temperatures slightly below normal or slightly
above normal through the Long Term.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS, thinning lake effect clouds with bases in the
low VFR range are found southeast of the Lower Great
Lakes...with these clouds diminishing through the morning and
early afternoon hours today.

Surface high pressure will advance across our region today and will
maintain light winds through the remainder of the TAF
cycle...with these winds becoming southerly and increasing in
speeds tonight behind the surface high pressure and ahead of an
inbound sharp mid level trough.


Outlook...

Monday...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR. Breezy southwest gusts downwind of
the Lakes. Rain showers likely. Lowering ceiling heights across
higher terrain and east of Lake Ontario. Rain showers taper off
Monday night.

Tuesday...Becoming mainly VFR. A chance of a shower east of Lake
Ontario.

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR. Rain showers late.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will bring light winds and minimal waves to
the eastern Great lakes today.

Behind this surface high, a southerly flow that will increase
through the night to bring waves to 4 feet by the end of the night.
The bulk of these higher waves will be within Canadian waters.

Monday a deepening trough will approach our region, with winds
becoming southwest ahead of a cold front. Speeds may reach gale
force Monday along and behind the cold front on Lake Ontario, and a
gale watch will be in place for this potential.
Elsewhere...including the rivers...small craft conditions are likely
for Monday.

Through the remainder of the week choppy conditions are expected on
both Great Lakes with several cold fronts passing across the Lower
Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas