300
FXUS61 KBUF 011753
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather is expected through the middle of the week,
other than a few scattered showers for Tuesday afternoon.
Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels is also expected
for much of the first half of the week. A cold front will bring
the next round of showers and thunderstorms starting on
Thursday, with periods of wet weather continuing through next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest GOES WV imagery shows a rex block over the northeastern US
into eastern Canada that continues to support dry weather across
much of the Great Lakes region. A weak mid-level low centered over
the Mid-Atlantic continues to detach from the upper jet off the
eastern seaboard with high clouds spreading over portions of north-
central NY. Temperatures aloft continue to gradually rise across
western NY with surface temperatures this Labor Day in the 70s for
most and overnight temperatures a couple degrees warmer than the
previous nights.

As the weak mid-level low with this pattern slowly transitions
northward, light rain showers will be possible across the north-
country Tuesday. Precipitation totals will be quite light with a low
chance (~10%) of exceeding 0.25" mainly along the higher elevations
in the Tug Hill where the terrain along with relatively cooler temps
aloft will aid convective shower development. Otherwise, Tuesday
will be fairly similar to Monday as surface high pressure begins to
slowly slide off the east coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expecting a return to dry weather Tuesday night for areas that may
have observed isolated showers earlier in the day. The mid-level low
will lift north and become absorbed into the overall troughing
pattern dropping into the upper Great Lakes Wednesday and remaining
over much of the region for the remainder of the week. Beforehand,
Wednesday looks to be the last nice, dry day from this overall quite
weather pattern. Afternoon temperatures will range from the mid-70s
to around 80 for most. South to southwesterly winds will begin to
increase in the afternoon across the Niagara Frontier as pressure
gradients begin to tighten ahead of the approaching cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep upper level troughing will dive across the region and maintain
in place Thursday through the next weekend, while allowing for a few
shortwave troughs to round its base. Overall this will support the
return of active weather to grace the Great Lakes in addition to a
cooler airmass.

Looking into the details, a surface cold front will cross from west
to east Thursday and Thursday night supporting widespread rainfall
to the region. Latest NBM probability of exceeding 0.5" of
precipitation is fairly high for this lead time around 50-75% for
most areas across western and north-central NY. However, will need
to continue to monitor as minor uncertainties remain with the
passage timing and position of the upper level system.

In the wake of the front, the combination of a much cooler airmass
and general cyclonic flow aloft will support the potential for some
lake enhanced rain showers east/southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario
Friday through Saturday night. Activity will then fade Sunday
afternoon as ridging and drier air arrives to the lower Great Lakes.
Gusty winds are also possible Thursday and Friday as 850mb winds
behind the initial front will exceed the climatological 90th
percentile for early September based on the latest NAEFS.

Circling back to the arrival of the much cooler airmass in the wake
of the front Thursday, expect temperatures late in the week to
tumble back to below normal for early September.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across area terminals through the forecast
period. Diurnal cumulus clouds around 5 kft are present across
western NY, while increasing upper level cloud cover arrives from
the south for terminals east of Lake Ontario. Localized valley fog
will be possible once again, especially for the Southern Tier.
Isolated light rain showers will develop east of Lake Ontario
Tuesday, but minimal impacts to flight categories expected at this
time.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river
valley fog possible across the Southern Tier.

Thursday...MVFR with rain showers and gusty winds along a cold
frontal passage.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with lingering rain showers and
gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and low wave heights are expected through the mid-week
period as high pressure over the region slides east.

A cold front later in the week will bring the potential for
increased winds and waves starting Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...Brothers
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...Brothers/EAJ
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...SW