278
FXUS61 KBUF 011005
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
605 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather is expected through the middle of the week,
other than a few scattered showers for Tuesday afternoon.
Comfortable temperatures and humidity levels is also expected
for much of the first half of the week. A cold front will bring
the next round of showers and thunderstorms starting on
Thursday, with periods of wet weather continuing through next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clear skies and light winds are found across the area early this
morning. Some fog has developed in some of the valleys, but so far
is limited mostly to the interior western Southern Tier.
Temperatures across the area range from the mid 40s to the low 50s.

Today, fair dry weather expected for the entire forecast area for
this Labor Day holiday with a sfc high over the region. Afternoon
fair weather clouds can be expected, with greater cloud cover toward
the eastern half of the area later in the day as some synoptic
moisture increases in those areas associated with a mid level low.
Winds today will be light and variable, picking up a bit onshore as
lake breeze boundaries develop with the overall weak synoptic flow.
Temperatures today will be in the low 70s to near 80 from the higher
terrain to the lower elevations respectively.

Tonight, with high pressure centered to the east, the dry weather
will continue through the night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies,
especially for the eastern half of the CWA will lower the potential
for fog across the area, but at least some patchy valley fog can`t
be ruled out. Winds will remain light, shifting out of the south
through the night as the high pressure continues pushing east.
Increased clouds tonight and waa today will bump overnight lows some
for tonight into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expansive high pressure centered overhead of New England Tuesday
morning will gradually slide east into the Atlantic by Tuesday
night. Meanwhile aloft, the axis of weak broad troughing will lie
over central New York. While the surface high pressure will continue
to maintain mainly dry weather, along and to the east of the trough
axis aloft, the combination of moisture aloft and diurnal heating
may spark a few scattered showers Tuesday afternoon (especially
across the eastern Lake Ontario region). Shower activity will die
out quickly shortly after sunset due to the loss of daytime heating.

Aforementioned surface high pressure will continue to drift out to
sea Wednesday and Wednesday night, however the next upper level
trough will dig southeast out of the Canadian Prairies into the
upper Great Lakes. With this, expect a surface low to dive southeast
across the Ontario province, dragging its potent cold front across
the Great Lakes. Ridging overhead of the Northeast Coast will delay
the timing of the front to the region, with its arrival now expected
for late Wednesday night. This being said, after another dry day
Wednesday and Wednesday evening, expect the chance for showers to
increase after midnight Wednesday.

Otherwise with the exiting surface high, the region will be under a
warm air advection regime supporting highs Tuesday and Wednesday to
rebound to slightly above average for the start of September. Highs
will range in the mid to upper 70s each day with Wednesday being the
warmer of the two days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep upper level troughing will dive across the region and maintain
in place Thursday through the next weekend, while allowing for a few
shortwave troughs to round its base. Overall this will support the
return of active weather to grace the Great Lakes along in addition
to a cooler airmass.

Looking into the details, a surface cold front will cross from west
to east Thursday and Thursday night supporting widespread rainfall
to the region. In the wake of the front, the combination of a much
cooler airmass and general cyclonic flow aloft will support the
potential for some lake enhanced rain showers east/southeast of
Lakes Erie and Ontario Friday through Saturday night. Activity will
then fade Sunday as ridging and drier air arrives to the lower Great
Lakes.

Circling back to the arrival of the much cooler airmass in the wake
of the front Thursday, expect temperatures late in the week to
tumble back to below normal for early September.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected this morning and today with SKC found for
most terminals into at least the first few hours of daylight this
morning. Earlier fog at KART cleared out after an hour or two.
Afternoon sct diurnal clouds along with some increased bkn clouds
east of Lake Ontario will bring lower cloud bases, but are expected
to remain above 5kft.

Tonight, VFR with bkn clouds expected to continue east of Lake
Ontario at or above 5kft. Some clearing later in the night expected
for this area. Otherwise clouds south of Lake Ontario will remain
sct for the night. Low confidence on valley fog tonight, especially
with cloud cover and temperatures a bit warmer, but can`t be
completely ruled out.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river valley
fog each late night and morning across the Southern Tier. Chance of
a few widely scattered showers/storms Tuesday afternoon inland from
the Lakes and east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday...MVFR with rain showers and gusty winds along a cold
frontal passage.

Friday...Mainly VFR with lingering rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and low wave heights are expected through the mid-week
period as high pressure over the region slides east.

A cold front later in the week will bring the potential for
increased winds and waves starting Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW