544
FXUS61 KBUF 021112
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
612 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low pressure will pass south of the area early this morning,
supporting widespread accumulating snow to overspread the area from
southwest to northeast through midday today. Snow accumulations will
be relatively minor, however due to the timing of the peak coverage
and intensity lying during the morning commute impacts will be
possible. The snow will rapidly taper off from west to east this
afternoon, with limited lake effect snow showers adding another
coating of snow south of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this evening. A
strong cold front will pass across the area Wednesday night through
Thursday supporting the next round of accumulating snow to the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current radar imagery this morning is depicting snow showers
blanketing New York State this morning in response to upper level
jet dynamics, a low/mid differential temperature advection and
associated frontogenesis in response to a partially phased mid-level
trough advancing eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Snow will continue to spread across western New York this morning
and into the eastern Lake Ontario region by daybreak. The bulk of
the activity of accumulating snow across western New York will occur
during the predawn hours through mid morning and between daybreak
through early afternoon for the eastern Lake Ontario region.
Snowfall amounts will be relatively minor, widespread 2 to 4 inches
are possible, with some local 5 inches possible across the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier and the southern Tug Hill region. While
some locations will fall short of the 4 inch advisory criteria, but
due to the timing and peak intensity of snowfall occuring during the
morning commute, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect due to the
expected impacts on travel.

Snow will rapidly taper off from west to east mid-day through early
afternoon as the surface low pulls east into the Atlantic. A cold
northerly wind will support a limited lake response south of Lakes
Erie and Ontario this afternoon and evening. As such, an additional
coating of snow (up to an inch of snowfall) will fall across the
Chautauqua Ridge and across the Rochester metro/western Finger
Lakes. Lake effect will mainly end tonight as a ridge of high
pressure and associated dry air builds into the lower Great Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry conditions are expected to start the period on Wednesday
as brief ridging crosses the area. Winds will start to increase out
of the southwest ahead of a strong cold front approaching the
region. The cold front will extend south from a sfc low up near
James Bay. The front will track across far WNY a few hours before
sunrise on Thursday morning and should just be clearing out of the
entire BUF forecast area by around sunrise or soon after.

Out ahead of the cold front, a tightening pressure gradient over the
region will start to increase winds out of the southwest. Wind gusts
of 30 to 35 mph is expected with some gusts to 40 mph possible.
Currently, guidance doesn`t have too strong of a LLJ with the sfc
low far to the north, so this will limit winds some. The strongest
winds during the period will be just ahead of and with the frontal
passage. Cold air advection behind the front and a continue strong
pressure gradient will keep gusty winds through Thursday evening.

A weak shortwave trough will cross the area with the southwest flow
out ahead of the front and cool temperatures aloft. This will lead
to the development of some lake enhanced precipitation, mainly in
the form of snow northeast of the lakes starting during the later
portion of the evening on Wednesday. Snow along the front will
become heavy at times, for around an hour or so, but a slightly more
prolonged period of heavier snow will be possible northeast of the
lakes as the front approaches and surface convergence increases over
the lakes. 1 to 3 inches can be expected northeast and just east of
the lakes, with marginal temperatures ahead of the front limiting
some of the snowfall accumulations.

Behind the front on Thursday morning, winds will veer to the
west/northwest through the day. This will push any lingering lake
effect snow south, focusing the lake snows on areas east and then
southeast of the lakes through the day on Thursday. Lake effect snow
will start to taper off by the mid evening on Thursday as the sharp
trough behind the cold front pushes east and ridging increases and
drier air start to push into the region. Snowfall amounts will be in
the range of 1 to 3 inches across WNY, with the higher amounts found
for areas of higher terrain south of Buffalo. East southeast of Lake
Ontario, where a better lake fetch and slightly longer lake response
is expected, 2 to 4 inches of snow can be expected for Thursday,
with some higher amounts possible for the Tug Hill.

Temperatures will remain below normal for the entire period,
especially for Thursday behind the passing cold front. Temperatures
on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 30s for most areas, and cool
to the mid 20s to near 30 for Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday
will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Overnight lows on Thursday
night will drop to the single digits for most areas, with sub zero
values possible for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly dry weather is expected for Friday into the morning on
Saturday as high pressure quickly passes across the region. A
southern stream system will pass well south of the area on Saturday
and a few northern stream sfc lows will track across ON/QC. One of
these systems to the north will drag another strong cold front
across the region. This will again develop lake effect northeast of
the lakes Saturday afternoon, which will then shift east Saturday
night and then southeast of the lakes on Sunday as winds veer with
and behind the passing front. Lake effect snow off the lakes will
taper off by Sunday evening.

High pressure will quickly pass just south of the area, providing
for mainly dry weather for Monday. A quick passing clipper will dive
southeast out of Canada and bring the next chance for snow showers
on Tuesday.

Well below normal temperatures will once again return for Sunday
into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Light widespread snow will continue to spread across the region this
morning, dropping flight conditions down to MVFR/IFR/LIFR across
western New York and eastern Lake Ontario. As low level moisture
deepens through the 08Z to 14Z period, ceiling heights will remain
as IFR. This is also the period the snow could be heaviest, with the
lowest visibilities.

Snow will rapidly end from west to east between the midday to
afternoon hours today, as mid-level moisture depletes. There will be
some lingering lake effect/upslope snow showers will be possible
south of Lakes Erie and Ontario, impacting KJHW and KROC this
afternoon through tonight. Visibilities within the lake effect
showers will fluctuate between IFR to MFVR.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of light snow showers.

Wednesday night through Thursday...IFR in snow, especially
east/northeast of the lakes. Improving later Thursday.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of light snow showers.

Saturday...MVFR/local IFR with chance of snow showers, especially
east of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will stay relatively light at 15 knots or less through early
Wednesday morning.

A strong cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes Wednesday
night. Southwest winds will increase Wednesday ahead of the front,
then veer to west and northwest behind the front late Wednesday
night and Thursday, producing a round of high end Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ001>006-008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/Hitchcock