Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
943 FXUS61 KBUF 292345 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 745 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warmer weather is expected through mid-week, followed by a cold front that will bring an increasing chance of showers Thursday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer weather is expected through mid-week, followed by a cold front that will bring an increasing chance of showers Thursday through Friday. The coastal low off the southern New England coast will exit into the northern Atlantic tonight. An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes region through tonight. The mid-level ridge axis will move east of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon as a shortwave trough and cold front approach from the northwest. Lingering low-level moisture from the coastal low will maintain partly cloudy conditions through this evening. Patchy fog is anticipated across the higher terrain. Mid to high level clouds will spread across the region Wednesday. Temperatures will rise well above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s. A warm front will lift across the region Thursday morning. Isentropic lift and modest moisture may result in a brief window of scattered showers across western NY Thursday morning, and across north-central NY Thursday afternoon. Temperatures at 850mb will rise to +16C behind the front. Cloud cover from the upstream trough and cold front may limit the full potential for surface heating, however it will still be warmer than normal with high temperatures in the mid 70s. A 30-40knot low level jet will reside across the region Thursday, and southwest flow will result in breezy conditions downwind of the Lakes. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible, with weaker winds elsewhere. A stronger trough will dig into the Upper Great Lakes region Thursday night and aide in pushing the shortwave trough and cold front through the eastern Great Lakes region. A ribbon of vorticity, deep moisture, and low-level convergence will support showers Friday. There still remains uncertainty in the amount of rainfall late Thursday night through Friday, however the flood threat is near-zero. Cold air advection will occur immediately behind the cold front Friday through Friday night. Surface high pressure will move across the region through Saturday and mostly dry weather is expected. Temperatures will return to near normal values. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of early this evening lingering MVFR/low VFR stratus continue to erode from northwest to southeast in association with building surface high pressure and some modest subsidence and low level drying. This should result in lingering lower clouds across the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes/North Country mostly disintegrating by midnight. This being said...the resultant clearing skies coupled with light winds and our rather moist boundary layer will allow areas of fog to quickly develop from later this evening into the overnight hours...particularly across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier (including KJHW)...Finger Lakes...and North Country. Some fog also appears likely to develop across the lower elevations from KART to KFZY...and may also become possible around KIAG later on tonight. Otherwise general VFR conditions are expected. On Wednesday...any fog that forms tonight should largely dissipate by mid-morning with increasing daytime heating and mixing. This will allow for a return to VFR conditions areawide...albeit under increasing/gradually lowering high and mid-level clouds through the rest of the day. Outlook... Wednesday night...Mainly VFR, with a chance of showers/MVFR across far WNY overnight. Thursday...A chance of showers/MVFR crossing the area from west to east in association with a passing warm front...otherwise VFR. Thursday night and Friday...Deterioration to MVFR/IFR with showers developing in association with a cold frontal passage...followed by some possible improvement later Friday across far WNY. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Winds will become southerly tonight ahead of the next surface trough, with wind speeds increasing to around 10 knots by Wednesday. Winds will increase further on Thursday ahead of a cold front with a SSW flow around 15 knots. There is a growing confidence that small craft conditions may be met Thursday on eastern end of Lake Erie and the Upper Niagara River. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...JJR/Thomas MARINE...HSK/TMA