449
FXUS61 KBUF 092323
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
723 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Active pattern starting late tonight through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Active pattern starting late tonight through
midweek.

A more active pattern will begin late tonight as high pressure
over the region drifts east, allowing a warm frontal segment to
drift north in response to a mid/upper shortwave dropping into
the Upper Midwest. This will bring the next chance for showers
and storms into western New York well after midnight tonight,
shifting east across the rest of the area through early Monday
afternoon.

As the system moves northeast later in the day, a trailing cold
front will push south across western and north-central New York
Monday afternoon and evening. A moist airmass will be in place
within the warm sector ahead of the boundary, with PWAT values
in the 1.5"-1.75" range. This will contribute to at least
moderate diurnal instability to aid the development of scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

There will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall within the
moist airmass, for which WPC has a Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall (Level 1 out of 4). There will also be the threat of severe
weather, mainly across the Southern Tier where moderate shear
profiles will be in place, however instability may not be sufficient
to sustain more robust convection. Nonetheless, potential for a
stronger storm or two will exist, with the main threat being strong
winds. SPC maintaining the Marginal Risk of Severe Weather (Level 1
out of 5) across the Southern Tier. The greater severe risk remains
to our southwest at this time.

The cold front will stall just to our south Monday night, then
remain nearly stationary through midweek. Drier air will reside to
the north of the boundary Tuesday, with the better threat of showers
and storms across the western Southern Tier closer to the frontal
boundary. A potent mid level shortwave and associated surface low
will cross the lower Great Lakes Wednesday, bringing a renewed
threat of showers and storms by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
W`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect Western and
Central NY through 00Z/Tues. At the surface, a ridge exits
E`ward and allows a warm front to sweep NE`ward through our
region between ~06Z/Mon and ~14Z/Mon. After the warm front
passage, a cold front sweeps E`ward and should near a
CYOW/CYYZ/KDTW line by 00Z/Tues. Our regional surface winds
trend light and variable ahead of the warm front. Behind the
warm front and ahead of the cold front, SW`erly surface winds
around 10 to 15 knots are expected. These SW`erly winds should
gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times Mon afternoon through early
evening, especially northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Primarily VFR and dry weather are expected during the TAF
period. However, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected along and just ahead of the surface warm front.
Behind the warm front, a swath of rain showers associated with a
disturbance aloft should translate generally E`ward across our
region Mon morning through afternoon and impact each TAF site
for several hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may
develop along lake breeze fronts northeast and east of Lakes
Erie and Ontario from ~20Z/Mon through 00Z/Tues and during the
same time period, isolated showers and thunderstorms associated
with the approaching cold front may overspread portions of the
Niagara Peninsula of ON, eastern Lake Erie, and vicinity. Brief
MVFR to LIFR are expected with showers and especially storms.
The late afternoon and early evening storms may produce
brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 35 to 50 knots.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Friday...Periodic showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR or worse conditions are possible Monday night through
Thursday night. Current odds favor dry weather and VFR this
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes through
tonight, although 10-15 knot westerlies will continue on Lake
Ontario, with light to moderate chop across the eastern half of the
Lake this afternoon. Lighter winds and lower waves excepted for Lake
Erie.

Gradient flow through midweek looks to be generally under 20 knots,
with any marine headlines likely tied to thunderstorm activity.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...TMA