846
FXUS61 KBUF 310619
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
219 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes with this issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and dry weather today.

2) A warming trend begins Sunday with mild weather expected through
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and dry weather today.

Surface high pressure will build in over the eastern Great Lakes,
with dry weather and near average temperatures. Highs today will be
found in the upper 40s to around 50F east of Lake America, with a
range of 50s elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A warming trend begins Sunday with mild weather
expected through early next week.

The surface ridge overhead will sink east and southeast to the Mid-
Atlantic tonight. This will encourage a warming trend and overall
extend a dry period through the first part of next week. After
that...the picture becomes a bit unclear as a deep through begins to
take shape over the middle of the CONUS. As was previously noted
there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the overall evolution
(track/strength) of the low as it moves east. That said...chances
for showers have been delayed again and it appears we will stay dry
through Wednesday but unsettle condition may return by Thursday. One
thing does appear certain that above normal temperatures are
expected mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes today, which
will support VFR areawide.

Tonight...surface ridge will sink east and southeast to the Mid-
Atlantic but will maintain VFR.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and wave action will subside today as high pressure begins to
build in over the eastern Great lakes.

The surface ridge overhead drifts slowly east and southeast towards
the Mid-Atlantic states Sunday. This will bring light winds and flat
wave action through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another extended period of dry weather and warming temperatures
is expected beginning Sunday and lasting through the first half
of next week. This will continue to result in very dry fine
fuels and leaf litter.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
FIRE WEATHER...AR