Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
736 FXUS61 KBUF 171738 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 138 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Any scattered showers will end this evening, with some patchy fog overnight across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier. 2) Dry weather will prevail Friday through Saturday. 3) A chance of showers will return Saturday night through Sunday, followed by a cooler pattern next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Any scattered showers will end this evening, with some patchy fog overnight across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier. A weak east-west oriented frontal zone will remain stalled across northern PA through this evening, with associated frontogenesis and moisture convergence supporting a wealth of cloud cover across the region. A few widely scattered showers will continue through early evening, mainly across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and possibly the Saint Lawrence Valley. Any remaining scattered showers will end this evening, leaving dry weather to prevail overnight as the frontal zone begins to move southeast in response to flow adjustments as a trough digs across Ontario and Quebec. Clouds will persist through the first half of the night before gradual north to south partial clearing late. Low stratus may intersect the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes at times from late evening through early Friday morning, with some hilltop fog. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather will prevail Friday through Saturday. Surface high pressure will build from northwest Ontario Friday to Quebec Saturday, with associated dry air and subsidence bringing a stretch of dry weather to the region. The timing of the next system has slowed by about 6 hours compared to guidance from yesterday, so most areas are now forecast to remain dry through Saturday evening. It will be quite cool Friday night, especially across the North Country where lows will drop back into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Some patchy frost cant be ruled out across the Tug Hill region and western foothills of the Adirondacks. KEY MESSAGE 3...A chance of showers will return Saturday night through Sunday, followed by a cooler pattern next week. The persistent east-west frontal zone stretching from the Midwest to the east coast will become more active again Saturday night through Sunday as moisture convergence and frontogenesis increase along the boundary. A frontal wave will move east across Ohio and PA late Saturday night through Sunday, forcing the frontal zone to temporarily move northward towards the NY/PA border. Increasing moisture transport and isentropic upglide along and north of the boundary will bring increasing chances of rain late Saturday night through Sunday, with the highest rain chances and rainfall amounts forecast over the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, rapidly diminishing with northward extent towards the Canadian border. Monday through the middle of next week, deterministic models and ensemble means have continued to trend steadily south with the position of the east-west frontal zone as high pressure surface and aloft strengthens over Quebec. The farther south frontal position continues to lower rain chances for Monday through Wednesday, and if this model trend continues the first half of next week may end up being mainly dry. The farther south frontal position will also yield cooler temperatures, with highs only in the 60s for the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A few widely scattered showers will continue this afternoon, mainly across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Saint Lawrence Valley. VFR will prevail across most of the area with a wealth of mid level clouds. Areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS will continue in low stratus across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Tonight, any scattered showers will end this evening. VFR will continue to prevail for most areas with a gradual north to south decrease in mid level clouds. Low stratus will continue to bring MVFR/IFR CIGS to the higher terrain of the Southern Tier. Some of the stratus may intersect the higher terrain with hilltop fog/mountain obscuration late evening through early Friday morning. Friday, any lingering low stratus across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier will scatter out by mid morning. This will leave VFR to prevail with some diurnal cumulus developing with daytime heating. Outlook... Saturday...VFR. Saturday night through Sunday...MVFR/IFR with rain across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. VFR/MVFR farther north near the Canadian border with a chance of showers. Monday through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers across the Southern Tier, VFR elsewhere. && .MARINE... North winds in the 10-15 knot range will continue to produce a light to moderate chop at times on the lower Great Lakes tonight through Friday, but winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds will become northeast Friday night, and then remain northeast through the rest of the weekend as high pressure builds east across Ontario and Quebec. This will continue to produce a moderate chop on both lakes through the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock