Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
521 FXUS61 KBUF 242326 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 726 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A gradual warming trend will continue, with a few spotty showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday afternoon. 2) Unsettled weather will return Monday and Tuesday with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...A gradual warming trend will continue, with a few spotty showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Dry weather will continue to prevail tonight through Saturday morning as surface high pressure remains in place from the eastern Great Lakes to New England. Expect patchy river valley for across the Southern Tier overnight through Saturday morning with limited areal extent. A weak mid level trough will drift into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday afternoon. Moisture will be very limited, but the weak synoptic scale ascent interacting with the Lake Erie lake breeze boundary may allow for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon and evening. The most probable location would be from the western Southern Tier into southern Erie and Wyoming counties, with dry weather prevailing elsewhere. The small amount of convection that develops Saturday afternoon will mostly end around sunset Saturday evening. Another, somewhat stronger shortwave will move southeast across the Great Lakes and reach Western NY Sunday afternoon. The shortwave will again interact with local lake breeze boundaries to support isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Expect coverage to be sparse with plenty of rain free time. Temperatures will continue to trend gradually upward in a weak warm advection regime. Highs Saturday will reach the low to mid 80s for lower elevations away from the immediate lakeshores, with similar high temperatures Sunday. Dewpoints will begin to creep upward with modest humidity by Sunday. Key Message 2...Unsettled weather will return Monday and Tuesday with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. A strong mid/upper level ridge will remain centered on the 4-corners region much of next week. A series of Pacific origin shortwaves will traverse the top of the ridge, maintaining a longwave trough position over eastern Canada and New England. The northwest flow across the Great Lakes will maintain a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms at times through at least the first half of next week. Latest model guidance continues to suggest the Monday afternoon through Tuesday night time frame will feature the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms as a stronger trough and associated cold front cross the eastern Great Lakes. If the timing of stronger forcing aligns with the diurnal cycle there may be at least some severe weather potential on Monday and/or Tuesday, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the timing details. The eastern Canada trough is forecast to move east and de-amplify later next week, with a trend towards drier weather for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue over all sites through the night and into Saturday. Limited fog in the valleys near KJHW should not impact the airfield. Some cumulus will start to develop from far SW NY northeastward during the day on Saturday, and a shower or two will be possible in the hills east of Lake Erie, however all of the site should remain dry. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm across the far western Southern Tier hills. Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance for showers/thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Monday through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms possible. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will remain in place from the eastern Great Lakes to New England through Saturday, with light winds and flat wave action. Sunday through Monday the high will drift off the east coast, allowing for a modest increase in southwest winds and a light chop at times on Lake Erie. Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through early next week. There will be a chance of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon, with a better chance Monday through Tuesday. A few storms may contain gusty winds and locally higher waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Fries MARINE...Hitchcock