


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
527 FXUS61 KBUF 171845 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Outside of increasingly cloudier skies this afternoon, mainly dry weather will prevail into this evening. A few stray showers may be possible as a warm front approaches the region tonight through Saturday, though the first half of the weekend should be primarily quiet. A pair of slow-moiving systems will support the potential for periods of beneficial rainfall and breezy winds Sunday into the start of the next week. Active weather will then continue through the first half of the week with another pair of systems crossing the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Visible satellite imagery as of this afternoon is depicting increasing cloud cover from north to south across western New York and into north central New York. Additionally, the regional radar mosaic combined with surface stations across southern Canada and far northwestern New York are depicting a few scattered rain showers and mainly virga. As this activity continues to slide southeast into the area, the chance for a few sprinkles will persist through the remainder of the afternoon. Meanwhile, well to the northwest of the area (across southern Manitoba) sits an occluding low pressure system, sprawling its associated cold front south across the central United States and a warm front across the Great Lakes. In fact this warm front is responsible for the showers and virga across southern Canada and northwestern New York. Probabilities for scattered showers will increase across western New York tonight, due to increasing low level moisture, warm air advection and increasing lift. Overall tonight, rainfall amounts will remain on the lighter side, with less than a tenth of an inch possible. Surface high pressure over the region today, will continue to slide east into New England Saturday allowing for the aforementioned surface system to continue to advance towards the region. While warm air and moisture is advected northward into the region Saturday, the chance for a few rain showers will be possible. However this being said, mainly dry weather will prevail across the region. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Elongated surface high pressure along the east coast into Saturday will give way to the next weather system. As this system tracks northeast across the Upper Great Lakes, its warm front will push north across the central and lower Great Lakes, though remain north of the forecast area through Saturday morning. While the track remains north of the area, a few stray showers can`t be ruled out across western New York Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the aforementioned surface low, will drag its potent cold front across the central United States Saturday and Saturday night. As the trough axis sweeps across the front, a secondary low will form along the front, near/over southern Lake Michigan Saturday night. As this secondary low strengthens, it will continue to progress northeastward into southern Ontario and Quebec. With the passage of the low to the northwest of the region, expect widespread rain showers/rain to expand eastward throughout the day on Sunday. Along with the rain, some rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out Sunday afternoon where there will be some, though limited amount of shear with the prefrontal trough. Rainfall may be heavy at times as a plume of moisture from the Gulf advects into the region. Expect rainfall amounts of up to an inch possible Sunday and Sunday night. Most recent guidance trends are slower with the approach of the system and its frontal boundaries, resulting in the bulk of the rain expected for the late afternoon/evening for WNY & the evening for the North Country. Aside from the rainfall, should note that this system will also bring some gusty winds to the region. The track of the low continues to track further northwest of the area, supporting lower winds, a slight shift eastward would bring brisker winds. How much the system weakens during the occlusion process, will also play a monumental role on how blustery of a day it will be Sunday. As the low exits northeast, a tertiary surface low will develop either overhead of the region or over Pennsylvania Sunday night and into Monday. Overall, cool cyclonic flow will support lingering showers to persist for the start of the work week. Some of these showers, especially east of the lakes Monday will allow for a lake response. Temperatures for Saturday, behind the passing warm front will warm to the low to mid 70s for WNY and to the mid 60s for the eastern half of the forecast area. Temperatures on Sunday will remain warm for the entire forecast area in the upper 60s over the higher terrain to the mid 70s for the lower elevations. Temperatures for Sunday will be dependent on timing of FROPA, and if it ends up tracking across the region a bit earlier, then cooler temperatures can be expected for WNY. Monday, behind the passing cold front, temperatures will cool to back to near normal, in the mid 50s to near 60 for the entire area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Brief ridging at the surface and aloft will spread across the region Monday night through Tuesday morning, supporting a very brief timeframe of dry weather. A few troughs tracking across the region later Tuesday through the rest of the period will bring a few additional rounds of showers through the rest of the period. With the cooler nature of the passing troughs, showers will also be lake enhanced downwind of both lakes at times. Temperatures for the entire period will remain near to below normal for the entire area. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to exit east this afternoon and Saturday. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northeast across the central Great Lakes tonight. This being said beneath the surface high, light winds are spread across the region. However, with the warm front, cloud cover has increased across the region today from north to south, along with the chance for some virga across northwest New York. Overall, VFR conditions prevail across the region. The chance for a few showers will continue tonight with the warm front lifting north of the area. While VFR conditions will mostly prevail, isolated MVFR ceilings will be possible with any shower that develops. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail Saturday as the surface high exits the area and the warm front lying well north of the region. However, a few showers may develop due to increasing warm air, moisture and lift. Outlook... Saturday night...Mainly VFR with increasing cloud cover from west to east. Sunday...IFR/MVFR in rain. Isolated thunder and gusty winds possible across WNY. Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers. Wednesday...IFR/MVFR in rain showers. && .MARINE... Light winds and low wave action expected through tonight as high pressure drifts to the east coast. A gentle to moderate, mainly offshore southerly flow will develop on Saturday, with winds and waves remaining below headline criteria. Winds will further strengthen Saturday night and especially Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a strengthening area of low pressure moving from the lower Ohio Valley northeast through the central Great Lakes Sunday, with mainly fresh to strong varying southerly through westerly breezes expected to persist through at least mid week. Small Craft headlines and possible are likely through much of the Sunday through Wednesday timeframe. There is an increasing chance for gale force gusts Sunday and Sunday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EAJ NEAR TERM...EAJ SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...EAJ/JM/TMA