527
FXUS61 KBUF 171845
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
245 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of increasingly cloudier skies this afternoon, mainly dry
weather will prevail into this evening. A few stray showers may be
possible as a warm front approaches the region tonight through
Saturday, though the first half of the weekend should be primarily
quiet. A pair of slow-moiving systems will support the potential for
periods of beneficial rainfall and breezy winds Sunday into the
start of the next week. Active weather will then continue through
the first half of the week with another pair of systems crossing the
Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery as of this afternoon is depicting
increasing cloud cover from north to south across western New York
and into north central New York. Additionally, the regional radar
mosaic combined with surface stations across southern Canada and far
northwestern New York are depicting a few scattered rain showers and
mainly virga. As this activity continues to slide southeast into the
area, the chance for a few sprinkles will persist through the
remainder of the afternoon.

Meanwhile, well to the northwest of the area (across southern
Manitoba) sits an occluding low pressure system, sprawling its
associated cold front south across the central United States and a
warm front across the Great Lakes. In fact this warm front is
responsible for the showers and virga across southern Canada and
northwestern New York. Probabilities for scattered showers will
increase across western New York tonight, due to increasing low
level moisture, warm air advection and increasing lift. Overall
tonight, rainfall amounts will remain on the lighter side, with less
than a tenth of an inch possible.

Surface high pressure over the region today, will continue to slide
east into New England Saturday allowing for the aforementioned
surface system to continue to advance towards the region. While warm
air and moisture is advected northward into the region Saturday, the
chance for a few rain showers will be possible. However this being
said, mainly dry weather will prevail across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Elongated surface high pressure along the east coast into Saturday
will give way to the next weather system. As this system tracks
northeast across the Upper Great Lakes, its warm front will push
north across the central and lower Great Lakes, though remain north
of the forecast area through Saturday morning. While the track
remains north of the area, a few stray showers can`t be ruled out
across western New York Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned surface low, will drag its potent cold
front across the central United States Saturday and Saturday night.
As the trough axis sweeps across the front, a secondary low will
form along the front, near/over southern Lake Michigan Saturday
night. As this secondary low strengthens, it will continue to
progress northeastward into southern Ontario and Quebec. With the
passage of the low to the northwest of the region, expect widespread
rain showers/rain to expand eastward throughout the day on Sunday.
Along with the rain, some rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out
Sunday afternoon where there will be some, though limited amount of
shear with the prefrontal trough. Rainfall may be heavy at times as
a plume of moisture from the Gulf advects into the region. Expect
rainfall amounts of up to an inch possible Sunday and Sunday night.
Most recent guidance trends are slower with the approach of the
system and its frontal boundaries, resulting in the bulk of the rain
expected for the late afternoon/evening for WNY & the evening for
the North Country.

Aside from the rainfall, should note that this system will also
bring some gusty winds to the region. The track of the low continues
to track further northwest of the area, supporting lower winds, a
slight shift eastward would bring brisker winds. How much the system
weakens during the occlusion process, will also play a monumental
role on how blustery of a day it will be Sunday.

As the low exits northeast, a tertiary surface low will develop
either overhead of the region or over Pennsylvania Sunday night and
into Monday. Overall, cool cyclonic flow will support lingering
showers to persist for the start of the work week. Some of these
showers, especially east of the lakes Monday will allow for a lake
response.

Temperatures for Saturday, behind the passing warm front will warm
to the low to mid 70s for WNY and to the mid 60s for the eastern
half of the forecast area. Temperatures on Sunday will remain warm
for the entire forecast area in the upper 60s over the higher
terrain to the mid 70s for the lower elevations. Temperatures for
Sunday will be dependent on timing of FROPA, and if it ends up
tracking across the region a bit earlier, then cooler temperatures
can be expected for WNY. Monday, behind the passing cold front,
temperatures will cool to back to near normal, in the mid 50s to
near 60 for the entire area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief ridging at the surface and aloft will spread across the region
Monday night through Tuesday morning, supporting a very brief
timeframe of dry weather.

A few troughs tracking across the region later Tuesday through the
rest of the period will bring a few additional rounds of showers
through the rest of the period. With the cooler nature of the
passing troughs, showers will also be lake enhanced downwind of both
lakes at times.

Temperatures for the entire period will remain near to below normal
for the entire area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to exit east this afternoon and
Saturday. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northeast across the
central Great Lakes tonight. This being said beneath the surface
high, light winds are spread across the region. However, with the
warm front, cloud cover has increased across the region today from
north to south, along with the chance for some virga across
northwest New York. Overall, VFR conditions prevail across the
region.

The chance for a few showers will continue tonight with the warm
front lifting north of the area. While VFR conditions will mostly
prevail, isolated MVFR ceilings will be possible with any shower
that develops.

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail Saturday as the surface high
exits the area and the warm front lying well north of the region.
However, a few showers may develop due to increasing warm air,
moisture and lift.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Mainly VFR with increasing cloud cover from west to
east.

Sunday...IFR/MVFR in rain. Isolated thunder and gusty winds possible
across WNY.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers.

Wednesday...IFR/MVFR in rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and low wave action expected through tonight as high
pressure drifts to the east coast. A gentle to moderate, mainly
offshore southerly flow will develop on Saturday, with winds and
waves remaining below headline criteria.

Winds will further strengthen Saturday night and especially Sunday
as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a strengthening
area of low pressure moving from the lower Ohio Valley northeast
through the central Great Lakes Sunday, with mainly fresh to strong
varying southerly through westerly breezes expected to persist
through at least mid week.

Small Craft headlines and possible are likely through much of the
Sunday through Wednesday timeframe. There is an increasing chance
for gale force gusts Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/JM/TMA