965
FXUS61 KBUF 141836
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
236 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain stalled out a little to our south
through Monday. This could result in a few showers at times from the
Southern Tier northeastward to interior portions of the North
Country...with dry and uneventful weather otherwise expected. The
front will then lift back northward as a warm front Tuesday through
Wednesday...ushering in warmer and increasingly unsettled conditions
as we push through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
During this period a frontal boundary will remain stalled out to the
south of our region...while additional weak waves of low pressure
ripple eastward along this boundary. While the vast majority of the
convection attendant to these waves and the frontal boundary itself
will remain to our south...the presence of a weak inverted trough
extending along our southeastern periphery may still be enough to
generate a few showers at times across the Southern Tier and
interior portions of the Finger Lakes/North Country. Have covered
these with a mix of slight chance to chance (20-40 percent) PoPs in
the forecast for now...with areas further north and west expected to
remain dry.

Otherwise the rather stark nortwest-southeast bifurcation in cloud
cover currently seen on satellite imagery will tend to remain in
place through the rest of the day...with lower clouds hanging tough
across the Southern Tier owing to greater amounts of low level
moisture there...while clear largely skies will be found across
portions of the Niagara Frontier and North Country. Tonight
nocturnal cooling/moistening within the pool of lingering low level
moisture in the vicinity/south of the inverted trough will likely
result in the lower clouds expanding back somewhat northwestward
again...with some lower stratus/areas of fog expected to redevelop
across the higher terrain...especially across portions of the
Southern Tier where it rained last night and this morning. On
Sunday...the lower clouds should then tend to thin and lift from
northwest to southeast again with renewed diurnal heating and
mixing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian sourced high pressure will slowly loosen its grip on our
region this period as it migrates eastward, extending from Quebec to
the northwestern Atlantic by Tuesday before moving entirely offshore
Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a mid-level shortwave crossing into the
Ohio Valley from the central Mississippi Valley will cause a stalled
frontal boundary in the region to begin lifting back northwards
towards the eastern Great Lakes as a warm front. While stronger
forcing for showers and thunderstorms won`t arrive until the
shortwave and warm front move in on Tuesday, we may contend with
some spotty light showers at times through Monday night with weak
isentropic lift and weak low-level convergence in the vicinity. NBM
is much drier than global ensemble guidance for Monday in
particular, with the former showing null QPF and the latter (mainly
the GEFS/ENS) showing 60-80% for measurable rainfall over our
region. Have hedged above NBM though still only spotty light QPF
amounts given the nebulous forcing in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A phasing shortwave pattern will carve out a deeper longwave trough
across the Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday. A strengthening
wave of sfc low pressure ahead of this trough will track northeast
from the Upper Midwest to Quebec in tandem. This will lift the
previously stalled frontal boundary even further north and firmly
place the forecast area in the system`s warm sector, with much more
summer-like air advecting into the region. The increased heat,
humidity, and instability will be accompanied by stronger LLJ
forcing to also increase chances for showers and thunderstorms
across the area. Details remain murky at this range, mainly in
regards to track of the low and timing of the system`s cold front,
but the general setup could be supportive of heavy rainfall and more
robust convection should all the parameters favorably align.

Overall activity should begin to wind down Thursday night, though
could be some lingering showers as the upstream trough looks to hang
back quite a bit and not cross the region until later Friday. There
are indications that much stronger ridging (and thus warmer and
drier weather) may build across the central/eastern CONUS over the
weekend, though confidence is low in this being preceded by some
"ridge runner" shower/tstorm activity Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through Sunday a frontal boundary will remain stalled out to the
south of our region...while additional weak waves of low pressure
ripple eastward along this boundary. While the vast majority of the
convection attendant to these waves and the frontal boundary itself
will remain to our south...a weak inverted trough extending along
our southeastern periphery may still generate a few showers at times
across the Southern Tier and interior portions of the Finger
Lakes/North Country. Meanwhile...areas further north and west will
remain dry.

This being said...the presence of the inverted trough and lingering
low level moisture along and to its south will allow the mix of
IFR/MVFR ceilings along our southeastern periphery this afternoon to
expand back northwestward a bit and lower again tonight as nocturnal
cooling/moistening of the lower levels takes place...with areas of
low stratus and fog expected to redevelop across the higher terrain
of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Further north and west
conditions should remain VFR through tonight...though some lower-end
VFR ceilings will probably still make it into KBUF-KROC-KART for at
least a time. On Sunday renewed diurnal heating and mixing should
then result in improvement to higher-end MVFR/lower-end VFR across
the Southern Tier and interior of the Finger Lakes...with VFR
conditions prevailing elsewhere.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
especially southern portions of the area.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will slide from Quebec to offshore of the Canadian
Maritimes through the rest of the weekend...while several waves of
low pressure ripple along a stalled out frontal zone across Ohio and
Pennsylvania. The pressure gradient between these features will
maintain northeasterly winds on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with a
moderate chop on both lakes.

As the high shifts further eastward Sunday night and Monday...winds
will veer southeasterly and weaken on both Lakes. The weakening and
offshore flow component will allow waves to subside, with little to
no chop expected for the start of the new work week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR/TMA