Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
569
FXUS61 KBUF 032315
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
615 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near record warmth Wednesday with dry weather continuing through
late afternoon.
2) Showers return Wednesday night, with unsettled weather and cooler
temperatures lasting through next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record warmth Wednesday with dry weather
continuing through late afternoon.
A mid-level ridge will continue to build east across the Atlantic
seaboard through mid-week, supporting surface high pressure to
persist off the eastern Atlantic. Overall this will support a
continuation of dry weather through late afternoon Wednesday with
periods of mid/high clouds drifting across the region.
A belt of 25-30 knot southerly flow in the boundary layer will bring
some increase in winds tonight through Wednesday, most notably along
the lee slopes of the Chautauqua Ridge overnight through Wednesday
morning where downslope winds may gust to 30 mph at times.
As the upper ridge builds further north Wednesday, 850mb
temperatures will continue to rise, peaking at about +14C. The
anomalous warmth aloft will combine with some filtered sunshine,
mechanical mixing from the southerly breeze, and downslope
compressional warming to boost temperatures into the mid to upper
70s across lower elevations. See Climate section for more
information regarding record temperatures.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers return Wednesday night, with unsettled
weather and cooler temperatures lasting through next weekend.
Deep troughing and associated closed low will move into the Great
Lakes for the later half of the work week. A deep southerly flow
originating from the Gulf and southern Atlantic Ocean will support a
plume of moisture into the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday
night through Thursday morning. This deep moisture combined with
forcing from the surface to 500mb due to a passing cold front will
support widespread showers across the region, and provide some
modest relief to the recent dry spell. Rainfall amounts will not be
overly impressive however given the fast motion of the system and
narrow axis of moisture. Most areas will see 0.25" or less of rain
Wednesday night.
In the wake of the cold front, expect gusty southwest winds
northeast of Lake Erie with gusts of 25 to 35 mph impacting much of
the Niagara Frontier on Thursday.
The trough will move overhead Friday and persist into the weekend,
possibly evolving into a slow moving mid level low by late Friday
through Saturday over the eastern Great Lakes. The trough and
associated forcing and moisture will support a chance of showers
Friday into the weekend. Ongoing cold advection will also bring a
notable downward trend in temperatures, with highs this weekend back
to near average after the exceptional warmth this week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR will prevail tonight through Wednesday areawide. The warm sector
of the approaching system will become well established overnight as
the warm front moves northeast into Quebec and northern New England.
Areas of mid/high clouds will continue at times overnight through
Wednesday. Clouds will begin to thicken and lower later Wednesday
afternoon across Western NY as a cold front approaches, but CIGS
should remain VFR through early evening.
Outlook...
Wednesday night...Deteriorating to MVFR and higher terrain IFR with
occasional showers.
Thursday through Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of a few showers.
Saturday through Sunday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely at
times.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure will deepen as it moves to Wisconsin Wednesday, then
crosses the upper Great Lakes Wednesday night, reaching Quebec
Thursday. A trailing cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes
Wednesday night through early Thursday morning. Southerly winds will
run in the 10-15 knot range tonight through Wednesday with a light
to moderate chop in offshore waters on both lakes.
South winds will increase further Wednesday night, then become
southwest Thursday behind the cold front. This may bring a period of
Small Craft Advisory conditions, with the best chance on Lake Erie.
Winds will diminish Thursday night through Friday as the low over
Quebec elongates and weakens.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A long stretch of very dry weather continues across the region,
with minimal rainfall over the past three weeks. The long
stretch of dry weather has left fine fuels and leaf litter very
dry across the region.
Dry weather will continue Wednesday along with near record
warmth. A southerly breeze will increase into the 10 to 20 mph
range with some higher gusts. Afternoon minimum relative
humidity may drop into the 40 to 45 percent range Wednesday.
A cold front will then cross the region Wednesday night,
bringing a period of beneficial rain to the region. Rainfall
amounts will be light however, with 0.25" or less in most
areas. Another system will cross the eastern Great Lakes late
Friday through the weekend with additional rain chances, along
with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Unusually warm weather across western and north-central New York
is expected through Wednesday. Forecast temperatures are
expected to be around 20 degrees above normal for part of the
first week of November. Here is a list of record high
temperatures, record high minimum temperatures, and normals for
the next few days.
Record High Temperatures(F)
Buffalo Rochester Watertown
Tuesday, November 3 80(1961) 75(1938) 74(1961)
Normal 53 54 52
Wednesday, November 4 74(2022) 78(2015) 73(2015)
Normal 52 54 51
Record Warm Minimum Temperatures(F)
Buffalo Rochester Watertown
Tuesday, November 3 58(1938) 58(1975) 57(1961)
Normal 38 38 34
Wednesday, November 4 57(1935) 58(1987) 56(1987)
Normal 38 38 33
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Craven/Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
FIRE WEATHER...Hitchcock
CLIMATE...EAL/HSK