686
FXUS61 KBUF 271731
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
131 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minimal changes this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Record warmth possible Thursday.

2) Abnormally dry conditions continue through the weekend. Brief
shot of light rain Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warmth possible Thursday.

Upper level ridging will start to build tomorrow with above
normal temperatures returning (mid to upper 60s). Low level
thicknesses build even further Thursday ahead of the next
frontal system, with widespread highs in the upper 60s to low
70s expected. Some records will be threatened or broken with
any additional heating into the mid 70s, which will be possible,
especially over the Genesee Valley due to downslope flow and
dry soils (see Climate section below). A strengthening SW breeze
may cap heating along the eastern Lakeshores in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Abnormally dry conditions continue through the
weekend. Brief shot of light rain Thursday night.

Dry high pressure will remain over the area through Thursday
before a weak cold front moves through the region overnight and
provides chances for light rain showers. Very limited forcing
with this front will allow for only a few hundredths of an inch
of rain to fall across most of Western and Central NY
unfortunately. This will prolong our dry stretch of weather,
with some fire weather concerns due to the dryness of fuels and
leaf litter. Luckily, winds and RH levels won`t reach close to
critical levels through the weekend. See Fire weather section
below for more details. High pressure builds back over the Great
Lakes Friday and into this weekend, with dry weather continuing
until perhaps late Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period with high
pressure building in from the east. A weak warm front will lift
through the airspace overnight, which will lead to increasing
mid and high level clouds, but ceilings should remain at or
above 5000 ft. Overnight cloud cover will keep any fog formation
at bay with limited cooling, with skies clearing by mid morning
tomorrow and VFR conditions continuing.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Generally VFR conditions
expected. Some brief interruptions to MVFR conditions are
possible Thursday night into Friday morning as a weak frontal
system moves across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will bring fair boating conditions through
Thursday morning with winds generally less than 15 kts, ENE this
afternoon and then veering to the SE/S by tomorrow morning.
Waves will mostly be 2 feet or less and nearly flat at times.

Thereafter, winds will increase to SW 15-20 kts as the gradient
tightens ahead of an approaching frontal system the rest of
Thursday, and Small Craft conditions are likely to develop
across eastern portions of Lake Erie, and western portions of
Lake America. Small Craft conditions will spread eastward across
Lake America Friday as winds shift to the west. Waves will build
to 2-3 ft across Lake Erie over this period, and 3-4 ft across
Lake America. Improving marine conditions this weekend with
weaker winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No measurable rain has fallen for nearly two weeks in most of
our region. The extended period of dry weather and sunshine has
cured fine fuels and leaf litter, bringing some increase in
wildfire risk. Luckily, the forecast does not show a significant
overlap of strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity values
through this weekend.

A weak cold front and weather disturbance should generate light
and periodic rain showers Thursday night, but resulting
rainfall amounts should be less than 0.10". Dry weather will
follow until another chance for rain showers return this Sunday
due to another weather disturbance. As a result, fine fuels and
leaf litter should remain very dry.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday, October
30th.

Buffalo,   NY   74 (1971)

Rochester, NY   76 (1896)

Watertown, NY   73 (1955)


&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SGK
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...SGK
FIRE WEATHER...Hitchcock/SGK
CLIMATE...SGK