Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
298 FXUS61 KBUF 070628 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 228 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Increasing heat this week. Heat indices could reach the mid 90s by the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing heat this week. Heat indices could reach the mid 90s by the end of next week. After a comfortable day today, an upper level ridge will build across the region Monday and Tuesday, as surface high pressure drifts to the east coast. This will support a warming trend, with temperatures reaching the 80s Monday and nearing 90F by Tuesday. Humidity levels early in the week look to stay low enough to keep these readings from feeling oppressive. Temperatures for the rest of the week will remain in the 80s to around 90F, but increasing humidity will bring the potential for heat index values reaching the lower to mid 90s by Thursday and Friday, with the warmest readings across portions of the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lingering moisture and cyclonic flow may produce widely scattered showers across the North Country (KART) today, with dry conditions expected elsewhere through the TAF period. In terms of flight conditions, there is fairly high confidence that the North Country will see a period of MVFR ceilings (with patchy IFR ceilings across the higher terrain) through at least the early afternoon, with building surface ridge then bringing VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, nocturnal cooling/lingering low level moisture may lead to a period of some patchy IFR/MVFR early this morning, though the extent of this remains questionable. Potential for this looks to be greatest across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, though cannot rule out some lower ceilings making it into KBUF/KROC for a brief period early this morning. Whatever stratus/fog does form will give way to VFR conditions today as ridge builds in and diurnal heating/mixing helps to mix out the low level moisture. Outlook... Tonight...Mainly VFR. Monday and Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier showers or storms. && .MARINE... High pressure building into the lower Great Lakes will maintain quiet conditions today through early next week, with generally light to modest winds and minimal waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TMA AVIATION...TMA MARINE...TMA