Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
113 FXUS61 KBUF 301802 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 202 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes made with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain showers will taper off across the North Country, while rain chances will increase across WNY through tonight. 2) Unsettled weather will persist through much of the week with occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance of showers and thunderstorms to arrive late Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon. Broad ridging across the central Plains today, will continue to build, while a trough digs southeast across Quebec. Between these two features, a well defined thermal packing is set up across the Great Lakes, where a corresponding warm front is strengthen across the upper Great Lakes into New York. This being said, strong frontogenetic forcing and ample moisture advection overhead the upper Great Lakes this afternoon through this evening, where moisture and lift overhead the eastern Great Lakes are supporting few showers across the area this afternoon. The front will sag south across WNY this afternoon and evening where an area of showers associated with the front across Lake Erie towards Michigan are pushing east into WNY as of 1330LT. This area of showers will continue to advect into WNY tonight, though the frontal boundary will remain west of the Finger Lakes. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather will persist through much of the week with occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Aforementioned strong ridge across the Central Plains Monday and Tuesday will extend into the lower Ohio Valley while, troughing across Quebec will continue across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast. Meanwhile in the lower levels, a well defined thermal gradient will remain across the Great Lakes towards New York and Pennsylvania through early next week. This boundary will waiver north/south at times as a few shortwave passages round the base of the upper level trough. The first shortwave will round the base of the trough Monday Monday night , the frontal zone will meander northeast across the region which will result in the rain showers to move from the southwestern portions of the forecast area to the northeastern portions. Instability looks to be limited Monday, resulting in a slight chance of thunderstorms. The pattern will become more conducive to strong to severe thunderstorms midweek,as a plume of an elevated mixed layer is forecast to slide northeastward across the Ohio Valley and possibly the eastern Great Lakes. As this feature arrives, antecedent conditions will feature a warm and humid airmass, thus resulting in the potential for moderate to strong instability as the shortwave passes by to the north. Additionally, with the passing of the shortwave, resultant flow will be modified to support increasing shear profiles. This all being said, the potential for severe weather midweek, however mesoscale details will continue to be monitored in the coming days as the details for severe weather to become more clear. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Two main areas of showers are passing east across the eastern Great Lakes as of 18Z Sunday. The first batch is pushing east from Rochester to Watertown. While the second batch of more steadier rain are diving southeast across Lake Erie, making its way into WNY. This first batch of showers will exit the eastern portions of the area this evening, resulting in MVFR conditions to improve to VFR. Meanwhile, with the steadier rain showers arriving to WNY, expect VFR conditions to deteriorate to MVFR and localized IFR across the higher terrain this evening and tonight. Lingering moisture beneath a shallow stable layer tonight and early Monday morning across the eastern portions of the area will result in some patchy fog to develop. This being said expect MVFR/IFR CIGS and VSBYs, impacting KART. Outlook... Monday...Widespread MVFR/IFR in the morning in low stratus and patchy fog, improving to VFR/MVFR in the afternoon. Showers likely at times with a chance of a few thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday through Thursday...VFR/MVFR with occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Storms and heavier showers will produce brief/local IFR. Friday...Showers to taper off from north to south, with conditions returning to VFR. && .MARINE... A southwesterly breeze of 5 to 10 knots on both lakes this afternoon and evening will continue to produce a light chop. Winds and waves will continue to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A northwest to southwest orientated frontal zone will continue to remain across the eastern Great Lakes throughout much of the week, where it will meander slightly north to south across the lower Great Lakes. As such, clusters of showers and thunderstorms will pass across the eastern Great Lakes. Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period, with occasional periods of light to moderate chop. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EAL AVIATION...EAL MARINE...EAL