112
FXUS61 KBUF 271814
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
214 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will gradually diminish east-southeast of Lake
Ontario today. A cold front will drop southeast across the area
Thursday, bringing the next round of rain and storms along with
another bout of cooler air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will pass over western and north-central NY
today. A cool airmass resides across the region, with a cumulus
field developing over the land. Lake enhancement will support
showers southeast of Lake Ontario today, however drier air will
limit coverage. A brief period of mid-level ridging will suppress
activity into the evening hours.

Surface high pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and Mid-
Atlantic region tonight. Mid-level ridging will slide off to the
east, while a cold front approaches from the northwest. This should
keep a light, gradient wind across the region. Low temperatures will
range from the low to mid 40s across the interior Southern Tier to
the mid 50s across the lake plains.

An upper low will move south from northern Quebec Thursday through
Thursday night. This will drive a cold front through the region
Thursday night. Initially, dry weather will persist across the
region the first part of Thursday. Moisture convergence and low-
level forcing will increase as the cold front nears the eastern
Great Lakes Thursday afternoon. Showers with lake enhancement will
develop  across the Niagara Peninsula around noontime. As the front
moves southeast, showers and a few thunderstorms will drop south
across far western NY and Saint Lawrence Valley through afternoon.
Some thunderstorms may produce heavy downpours and gusty winds,
however due to marginal instability and shear, the severe risk is
low. The actual front will move into the forecast area Thursday
evening, with showers and thunderstorms becoming more scattered.
Lake effect showers will persist east of the Lakes into Friday
morning. Rainfall amounts will average from 0.50-1.00" with
lesser amounts across central NY Thursday through Thursday
night.

It will become breezy Thursday afternoon, especially northeast of
the Lakes, with wind gusts up to 35 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An anomalously cool post-frontal airmass will circulate into the
region Friday and through the weekend as a closed upper level low
wobbles about southern Quebec and New England. Temps at 850H may
bottom out as low as +1 to +3 degrees celsius by Friday morning,
well within the 10th percentile for the date before warming several
degrees. This will naturally translate to a period of below normal
sfc temps with highs Friday and Saturday struggling to escape the
60s in most areas. This will especially be the case on Friday when
the higher terrain areas could remain in the 50s.

This pattern will also facilitate the the transition from
synoptically driven rains with the front to a cyclonic, lake
enhanced, and upslope driven shower regime. Overall coverage and
timing remains somewhat uncertain as the overhead airmass looks
quite dry outside of some reinforcing shots of synoptic moisture,
though coverage showers should be greatest through the first half of
the day Friday before becoming spottier. The greatest chances for
precip through Saturday will then likely be S/SE of Lake Ontario.
Subsidence from high pressure building across the Great Lakes should
then taper off the last of the lake response Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure ridging across the Great Lakes will slowly migrate
southeast and gradually settle off the East Coast through Wednesday.
This will lead to mainly dry weather accompanied by a warming trend
back towards near to above normal temps for early September.
Guidance continues to back off on the potential for a coastal low
bringing precip to the region around mid-week, though the next
trough digging southward across Ontario Province will cause another
strong cold front to approach the eastern Great Lakes with
increasing chances for showers from the west later Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cumulus field developed across western and north-central NY today.
VFR conditions will continue, with an isolated shower possible at
KROC. VFR conditions will continue overnight as surface high
pressure moves by to our south.

A cold front will approach the terminals Thursday. Southwest winds
will increase through the day with wind gusts up to 30kts at
KIAG/KBUF/KART. Showers will begin to develop west of the terminals
late Thursday morning, before moving into western and north-central
NY Thursday afternoon. Flight conditions will lower to low-end MVFR
across the far western NY terminals late Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night into Friday...MVFR/IFR with showers and thunderstorms
with a frontal passage.

Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A light chop will continue on the waters today. Surface high
pressure will maintain relatively quiet conditions on the waters. A
cold front will approach from the north, and a southwest wind will
increase through Thursday. Winds and waves will approach small craft
conditions Thursday on Lake Erie and by Thursday night on Lake
Ontario. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely with the front,
with lake effect showers lingering into the weekend.

Waterspouts are possible on the Lakes late Thursday through
Thursday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK