870
FXUS61 KBUF 011805
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
105 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Maximum temperatures continue to trend up for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Bumped up the probability of widely scattered showers Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm weather will continue through the week, with the warmest
days expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Unsettled weather returns to the region late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm weather will continue through the week, with
the warmest days expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

An upper level ridge axis will move across the region today. The
center of a surface high will move off the east coast while
remaining stretched across the Northeast. Warm air advection and
mostly sunny skies will support temperatures mainly in the 60s
today, upper 50s across the higher terrain.

The pattern becomes more amplified across the CONUS with a deep
trough across the Plains and a building ridge across the east
through midweek. Surface high pressure will persist across the
eastern seaboard and maintain mostly dry weather through Wednesday.
During this time, warm air advection will strengthen across the
region. Weak isentropic lift and increasing moisture will support
widely scattered showers across western NY Tuesday morning, and
across north-central NY late Tuesday morning through Tuesday
afternoon. Dry air will move back into the region from west to east
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

While clouds and a few showers impact the region Tuesday, 850mb
temperatures are expected to reach +11C. Max temperatures are
expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s. The upper level
ridge is expected to build further north on Wednesday. Another
very warm day for early November is expected with maximum
temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. Forecast southerly
winds will likely limit lake breeze influences across the
region. This setup translates to a very unusual event for the
region for early November according to the ECMWF EFI.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns to the region late in the
week.

A deep trough and closed low will move from the Mid-West to eastern
Canada late in the work week. A deep southerly flow orginating from
the Gulf and the southern Atlantic Ocean will move into the eastern
Great Lakes region Wednesday night through Thursday. Forcing from
the surface to 500mb and deep moisture will support medium to high
confidence for showers across the region. This will provide some
relief to the recent dry spell, however confidence in rainfall
amounts remains low. Cooler air will build into the region from west
to east Thursday, however it will remain warm especially from the
Finger Lakes region into north-central NY. Cooler weather, although
still above normal is expected Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR weather will prevail through tonight as surface high pressure
drifts towards the Mid Atlantic. Some limited valley fog is possible
late tonight.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A few scattered showers possible.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Restrictions possible with showers likely.

Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong surface high over the lower Great Lakes will drift to the
Mid Atlantic States through Monday, then off the eastern seaboard
Tuesday. Light winds will become south to southwest through Tuesday,
but winds and waves will remain well below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather and warming temperatures through Monday. This will
continue to maintain very dry fine fuels and leaf litter. There
is a chance of showers Tuesday but dry weather will resume
Wednesday, unsettle weather potentially returns Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...AR
FIRE WEATHER...AR/Hitchcock