603
FXUS61 KBUF 271729
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
129 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers are expected tonight into Monday, with best chances for
showers across Central NY as a slow moving Nor`easter grazes the
area.

2) Warming trend mid-week ahead of the next rain shower bearing cold
front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are expected tonight into Monday, with best
chances for showers across Central NY as a slow moving Nor`easter
grazes the area.

Current satellite imagery displays a mature anomalously strong low
pressure system, centered over the southern Jersey shore, with bands
of rain showers now pushing into CNY and the Finger Lakes region.
This low will continue to fill as it wobbles over the Atlantic
waters and inland to southern New England through Tuesday.

As an inverted surface trough associated with this surface low
tracks slowly westward, we should see rain showers continue their
westward expansion through the evening, and to perhaps the far
western NYS border. Rainfall is expected to be minor, with perhaps a
third of an inch of rain in the Finger Lakes region...and less
elsewhere. Rain chances will quickly taper down by late evening
hours tonight, with a few spotty light rain showers remaining across
the North Country through Monday afternoon.

As surface high begins to press eastward tonight and Monday as the
surface low spirals eastward, rain showers will diminish, though the
northern flow and lingering low level moisture will likely maintain
a blanket of clouds over our region through at least Monday night,
with perhaps some sunshine emerging Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend mid-week ahead of the next rain shower
bearing cold front.

Our wind flow will become southerly by Wednesday of this week,
allowing a warm autumn airmass to push into our region. In
conjunction with a ridge aloft, and 850 hPa temperatures rising into
the upper teens, surface high temperatures will become some 10
degrees or more above normal, with Thursday the likely warmest day
this week. Models have slowed a bit with the approach of the next
cold front with the suite of ensembles (ENS, GEFS, and GEPS) now
focusing highest chances for measurable rainfall now Thursday night.
This rainfall is also expected to be light, with chances for over a
tenth of an inch of rain in a 6-hour window generally less than 25
percent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong coastal low off the New Jersey coast will bring
strengthening NNE flow across area terminals today, with gusts 25 to
30 knots at times. As the precipitation shield begins to migrate
westward we will see not only some showers but also lowering cigs
and then reduce vsbys as we progress through the day into this
evening. VFR cigs will dip to low end VFR to MVFR late this
afternoon and then this evening a range of MVFR across the North
Country to IFR-LIFR at all other terminals overnight.

Outlook...

Monday...Showers and areas of drizzle will slowly diminishing from
west to east, otherwise continued MVFR/IFR CIGs.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly dry weather. Improvement to VFR
Tuesday, with VFR then prevailing afterward.

Friday...VFR to MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A freshening north-northeasterly flow will continue through this
evening as anomalously strong low pressure along the east coast
makes its closest approach to our region. This will bring solid
Small Craft Advisory conditions to the nearshore Lake waters from
the Niagara River to the Saint Lawrence River, while conditions
remain a little below advisory levels elsewhere. The filling low
will allow for northeast winds to relax overnight, with small craft
advisory conditions ending.

Winds and waves will subside Monday as low pressure moves away
from the region and high pressure takes back control. Winds will
shift out of the south by midweek with speeds generally less than
15 knots.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ002>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042>044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...Thomas