748
FXUS61 KBUF 012335
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
735 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from the possibility of a few widely scattered showers Tuesday
afternoon...dry and comfortable weather will continue through
midweek as high pressure slowly drifts eastward and off the New
England coastline. A cold front will then bring a period of fairly
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday
night...with cooler and at least somewhat unsettled weather at
points then expected from Friday on through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broad/weak upper-level low over the mid-Atlantic states will
continue to slowly drift north into Southern Ontario through this
period. Associated shield of high cloud cover continues to
overspread the eastern half of the CWA as of this writing...with
these expected to continue pivot northwestward tonight...before
withdrawing further northward on Tuesday as the core of the low
passes north of our latitude.

As the weak mid-level low with this pattern slowly transitions
northward, some diurnally-driven light rain showers will become
possible across the north-country Tuesday. Precipitation totals will
be quite light with a low chance (~10%) of exceeding 0.25" mainly
along the higher elevations in the Tug Hill where the terrain along
with relatively cooler temps aloft will aid convective shower
development. Otherwise, dry weather should continue to prevail
through Tuesday as surface high pressure begins to slowly slide off
the east coast.

With the increased high cloud cover and/or continued modification of
our airmass...lows tonight should run a little milder than those of
last night...and should range from the 40s across the interior of
the Southern Tier (where skies will be mainly clear) to the lower
50s elsewhere. Highs on Tuesday will then be similar to or slightly
higher than those of today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expecting a return to dry weather Tuesday night for areas that may
have observed isolated showers earlier in the day. The mid-level low
will lift north and become absorbed into the overall troughing
pattern dropping into the upper Great Lakes Wednesday and remaining
over much of the region for the remainder of the week. Beforehand,
Wednesday looks to be the last nice, dry day from this overall quite
weather pattern. Afternoon temperatures will range from the mid-70s
to around 80 for most. South to southwesterly winds will begin to
increase in the afternoon across the Niagara Frontier as pressure
gradients begin to tighten ahead of the approaching cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deep upper level troughing will dive across the region and maintain
in place Thursday through the next weekend, while allowing for a few
shortwave troughs to round its base. Overall this will support the
return of active weather to grace the Great Lakes in addition to a
cooler airmass.

Looking into the details, a surface cold front will cross from west
to east Thursday and Thursday night supporting widespread rainfall
to the region. Latest NBM probability of exceeding 0.5" of
precipitation is fairly high for this lead time around 50-75% for
most areas across western and north-central NY. However, will need
to continue to monitor as minor uncertainties remain with the
passage timing and position of the upper level system.

In the wake of the front, the combination of a much cooler airmass
and general cyclonic flow aloft will support the potential for some
lake enhanced rain showers east/southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario
Friday through Saturday night. Activity will then fade Sunday
afternoon as ridging and drier air arrives to the lower Great Lakes.
Gusty winds are also possible Thursday and Friday as 850mb winds
behind the initial front will exceed the climatological 90th
percentile for early September based on the latest NAEFS.

Circling back to the arrival of the much cooler airmass in the wake
of the front Thursday, expect temperatures late in the week to
tumble back to below normal for early September.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will largely predominate through Tuesday...with a
swath of high clouds overspreading portions of the area tonight...
then receding to our north on Tuesday. Localized valley fog will be
possible again across interior portions of the Southern Tier
overnight...with some isolated light rain showers then possible east
of Lake Ontario Tuesday...though these should bring only minimal
impacts to flight categories.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river
valley fog possible across the Southern Tier.

Thursday...MVFR with rain showers and gusty winds along a cold
frontal passage.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with lingering rain showers and
gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal waves are expected through midweek as high
pressure drifts east and off the New England coastline.

A cold front will then cross the area between Thursday and Thursday
night...with increasing southerlies to southwesterlies expected out
ahead of the front Thursday...and fairly brisk southwesterlies to
westerlies following in its wake Friday and Saturday. Eastern
portions of Lake Erie and western Ontario could see conditions reach
low-end SCA criteria for a time Thursday...with more widespread
advisory-level conditions then appearing more likely Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...Brothers/JJR
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...Brothers/EAJ
AVIATION...Brothers/JJR
MARINE...JJR