101
FXUS61 KBUF 201016
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
616 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A chance of showers across the Southern Tier today, otherwise
dry and uneventful through Friday.

2) Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...A chance of showers across the Southern Tier today,
otherwise dry and uneventful through Friday.

As we push through today...a wave of low pressure will ripple by to
our south across Pennsylvania. While the vast majority of any
rainfall attendant to this wave will remain to our south...a few
light showers on its northern periphery could brush the Southern
Tier through midday/early afternoon. Elsewhere this system will just
produce a wealth of cirrus-level cloudiness through early this
afternoon...with skies then clearing from west to east through the
balance of the day. Otherwise we can expect dry and comfortable
weather to prevail today through Friday as Canadian high pressure
slides from the Upper Great Lakes to New England.

Key Message 2...Periodic showers and scattered thunderstorms this
weekend into early next week.

Conditions will turn more unsettled this weekend...then will last
into early next week as upper level troughing over Ontario Province
digs southeastward and eventually closes off over southern
Ontario/southwestern Quebec. At the surface...an attendant elongated
surface low will push its warm front into our region during
Saturday...followed by its trailing cold front sometime between
Saturday night and Sunday morning. Initially...the encroaching warm
front and increasing moisture and modest/moderate diurnal
instability should support the development of some showers and
scattered thunderstorms Saturday and early Saturday evening...with
another round of more widespread showers and a embedded storms then
likely following Saturday night into Sunday morning as the cold
front crosses our region. In the wake of the front...progressively
cooler cyclonic flow/upper troughing will then support some
additional scattered to numerous instability-driven showers/storms
from the balance of Sunday through Monday...with some enhancement
from the lakes also becoming likely.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As we push through today...renewed daytime heating/ mixing will help
to dissipate any fog by mid morning. While a wave of low pressure
passing across Pennsylvania could produce a few additional light
showers across the Southern Tier through midday/early afternoon...
VFR conditions will continue to prevail with widespread mid/high
clouds through early afternoon giving way to clearing skies from
west to east later in the day.

Tonight...high pressure will settle directly across our region and
provide us with widespread VFR conditions...save for developing
localized river valley fog and associated IFR/LIFR across the
Southern Tier overnight.

Outlook...

Friday...Southern Tier river valley fog early...otherwise mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Periodic showers and scattered
thunderstorms with brief/localized MVFR/IFR conditions possible.
Mainly VFR outside of convection.

Monday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
A modest northwesterly to northerly flow across Lake Ontario and
northeasterly flow over Lake Erie will gradually weaken today as
surface high pressure settles across the Lower Great Lakes...with
the overall synoptic gradient weakening enough to support the
development of locally onshore flow across Lake Ontario this
afternoon.

The surface ridge will then slide east across our region tonight and
to New England Friday...with generally light/variable winds turning
more easterly/northeasterly during Friday. Modest southeasterly to
southerly flow will then develop Friday night and Saturday as the
ridge exits off the east coast, and elongated low pressure pushes
east across the central Great Lakes and Southern Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR