Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
133 FXUS61 KBUF 301737 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 137 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above average temperatures through Thursday, with a warm front bringing the chance for scattered light showers tonight into Thursday, before a cold front generates a round of beneficial rain showers Thursday night into the day on Friday. 2) Below normal temperatures are expected early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above average temperatures through Thursday, with a warm front bringing the chance for scattered light showers tonight into Thursday, before a cold front generates a round of beneficial rain showers Thursday night into the day on Friday. GOES satellite imagery shows a mix of high clouds and sunny skies across the forecast area this afternoon. An airmass change is on the way with an abundance of cloud cover upstream across the Great Lakes region. An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will move east of the forecast area tonight. Multiple shortwave troughs will sag southward from the Mid-West to the New England, while a plume of anomalously deep moisture begins to enter the region overnight. A 40kt low level jet is expected to nose into the forecast area tonight. Forcing at the nose of the jet and increasing moisture will support scattered showers across western NY tonight, then spread into north-central NY late tonight through Thursday morning. Overall, amounts will be widely scattered and less than 0.15". The main axis of moisture will lift north of the region Thursday. Drier air and increasing southwest winds will support breezy conditions northeast of the Lakes, especially northeast of Lake Erie. A tightening pressure gradient and funneling up the Lake will support wind gusts up to 30 mph across the Niagara Frontier. Overall, mostly dry weather is expected Thursday afternoon. A strong upper level trough will move into the Upper Great Lakes region Thursday night. A cold front will move across the forecast area Thursday evening through Friday morning. A narrow corridor of deep moisture, increasing 500mb vorticity, and a strong surface baroclinic zone will support a swath of light to moderate showers across the forecast area. Showers will move east of the region, with additional development of scattered showers across interior western NY to north-central NY Friday afternoon. Forecast rainfall amounts will range from 0.25-0.90", with the highest amounts across far western NY and on the Tug Hill Plateau. KEY MESSAGE 2...Below normal temperatures are expected early next week. A 500mb trough will move across eastern Canada and the eastern Great Lakes region early next week. A cold front is expected to usher in cool weather with 850mb temperatures falling to sub-zero readings. Forecast high temperatures are in the 50s Monday and Tuesday with low temperatures falling to the 30s. The airmass is dry with low chances of showers. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WSW`erly to WNW`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect Western and Central NY through 18Z/Thurs. Simultaneously and at the surface, our area remains along the northwestern flank of a high pressure ridge. Our regional surface winds trend S`erly to SW`erly around 5 to 15 knots. These winds should gust up to 20 knots at times after 15Z/Thurs as diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer taps into stronger flow aloft. Abundant cloud cover associated with the disturbances aloft persists over our region through 18Z/Thurs. Initially mid/upper-level cloud cover will thicken/lower gradually and yield ceilings near 5kft AGL generally from west to east between ~01Z/Thurs and ~12Z/Thurs. Scattered rain showers associated with a stronger disturbance aloft should overspread our region generally from west to east between ~00Z/Thurs and ~14Z/Thurs. These showers should then begin to exit E`ward after ~13Z/Thurs and by 18Z/Thurs, lingering showers should be found across North-Central NY, including KART. Brief MVFR ceilings/visibility are possible with steadier showers. Outlook... Thursday afternoon through Friday...Periodic rain showers with MVFR or worse expected. Friday night through Sunday...Dry weather and mainly VFR likely. Morning fog is possible, especially along/near the river and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North- Central NY. Sunday night through Monday. Periodic rain showers with MVFR or worse possible. && .MARINE... Southerly breezes will be 10 knots or less today with waves mainly less than one foot. Pressure gradient will slowly tighten tonight through Thursday well ahead of an approaching cold front, with moderate to perhaps even fresh south-southwesterly breezes bringing near-SCA conditons on Thursday, with potential for some low-end SCA conditions on portions of the Lakes. Winds veer westerly and decrease to around 10-12 knots Thursday night into Friday morning, before veering northwesterly and increasing, bringing a period of near-SCA conditions from Hamlin Beach to near the Saint Lawrence River later Friday afternoon and Friday night. Surface high pressure will bring a return to light winds and small waves on the Lakes this weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...HSK/JM