337
FXUS61 KBUF 011850
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
250 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above average temperatures today before a cold front
generates a round of more substantial rain showers tonight
through the first half of Friday.

2) Below-average temperatures with frost potential early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above average temperatures today before a cold front
generates a round of more substantial rain showers tonight
through the first half of Friday.

Primarily fair weather is expected for the time being as a
subtle shortwave ridge moves generally E`ward across our CWA and
is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence. However, ahead of this
shortwave ridge, a shortwave trough axis will continue to move
E`ward across Central NY through this late afternoon. Moist isentropic
ascent ahead of this shortwave trough axis will trigger isolated
to scattered rain showers. Abundant cloud cover will limit the
depth of diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer and the
mixing`s ability to tap into stronger flow aloft. However, the
limited mixing along with a tightening MSLP pressure gradient
ahead of an approaching cold front will elevate SW`erly surface
winds and gusts, especially northeast of the eastern Great
Lakes, where winds should gust up to 30 mph through this early
evening, especially across the Niagara Frontier. Late afternoon
highs are expected to reach the 70`s to 80F across most of
Western and Central NY, but mid 60`s to mid 70`s are expected in
North- Central NY due to greater cloud cover and the later
departure of the latest round of rain showers.

A sharper trough will then dig across the upper Great Lakes forcing
the aforementioned cold front southeast through western and
north-central NY overnight tonight through Friday morning.
While PWAT values will be nearing the 100th percentile for this
time of year, along with a stout 35-45 knot SW`erly LLJ, the
distribution of rain showers will be mainly ana-frontal and
thus not be able to take full advantage of the more plentiful
moisture and much stronger forcing for ascent along the surface
portion of the front. Thus, while there will be a period of
beneficial showers, the heavy rainfall/flooding threat will be
near zero. The main window for more persistent showers will be
late tonight through midday/early afternoon Friday, just behind
the surface cold front and associated with moist isentropic
ascent along the upper-reaches of the front. A general one-third
to two-thirds of an inch of rainfall is still expected. A few
widely scattered light showers may linger in the wake of the
cold front Friday afternoon, otherwise dry and seasonable
weather is on tap for the upcoming weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Below-average temperatures with frost potential early next
week.

A strong cold front with cross the area Sunday night, ushering in
the coolest airmass we`ve seen since last spring. 850 mb
temperatures should plunge to near 0C to -2C during the first
part of next week, with daytime highs not getting out of the 50`s
for much of the region, and possibly only upper 40`s for highs
across the Tug Hill and western Dacks by Tuesday.

The axis of a strong upper-level trough axis will cross the
area Monday, possibly producing a few showers, otherwise mainly
dry weather is expected. The main impact will be frost potential
Monday night, and possibly again Tuesday night, especially
farther inland from the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aloft, W`erly flow and embedded disturbances affect Western and Central
NY through 18Z/Fri. These disturbances will generate abundant
cloud cover, including in the mid/upper-levels. At the surface,
a cold front should sweep SE`ward across our area between
~05Z/Fri and ~13Z/Fri. Ridging will precede and follow the
front. The front`s passage will cause SW`erly winds around 5 to
15 knots to veer to NW`erly. The SW`erly winds are expected to
gust up to 20 to 25 knots through this early evening, especially
northeast of the eastern Great Lakes. Note: a SW`erly low-level
jet of 40 to nearly 60 knots at/near 925 mb should develop over
our area this evening and then translate generally E`ward with
the surface cold front passage. This low-level jet may result
in low-level wind shear.

Isolated to scattered rain showers across Central NY early this
afternoon and associated with one the disturbances aloft should
exit E`ward by ~20Z/Thurs. Brief MVFR are possible with these
showers. Otherwise dry weather and VFR are expected for the time
being. Isolated rain showers should develop this evening and
overnight tonight, along the surface cold front and associated
with enhanced/moist ascent resulting from the low-level jet.
Behind the surface cold front, widespread rain showers, steady
to heavy at times, and MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected along
the upper-reaches of the front. Periodic MVFR to IFR visibility
and LIFR ceilings are possible with the steady to heavy showers.
These showers should begin to exit generally E`ward after
~14Z/Fri and by 18Z/Fri, lingering rain showers should be
confined along and especially east of a roughly KJHW to KART
line. The widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings should linger through
18Z/Fri.

Outlook...

Friday...Lingering rain showers, possibly accompanied by
periodic MVFR visibility, should exit generally E`ward by
evening, as should widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings.

Friday night through Sunday...Dry weather and mainly VFR likely.
Morning fog is possible, especially along/near the river and lake
valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North-Central
NY.

Sunday night through Monday...Periodic rain showers with MVFR
or worse possible.

Monday night through Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR
likely. Morning fog is possible, especially along/near the river
and lake valleys of the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes,
and North-Central NY.

&&

.MARINE...
Pressure gradient will continue to slowly tighten today well ahead
of an approaching cold front. Expect moderate SSWerly breezes on
both Lakes today, with perhaps a brief period of fresh SSWerly flow
bringing near-SCA conditions on the northeast ends of both
lakes. However, the mainly offshore wind component will keep
the larger waves confined to the open waters.

Winds veer SW and W tonight with wind speeds 10-15 knots through
Friday morning, before veering NWerly and increasing, bringing a
period of low-end SCA conditions from the Niagara River to near the
Saint Lawrence River later Friday afternoon through a portion of
Friday night.

High pressure will bring a return to lighter winds and lower wave
action on the lakes this weekend, before a strong cold front
plows across the lower Great Lakes Sunday night, with freshening
NWerlies likely bringing a round of solid Small Craft Advisory
conditions later Sunday night into Monday night. Marine
conditions should improve gradually on Tuesday, when a ridge
should advance E`ward across the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka/JM
AVIATION...Jaszka/JM
MARINE...JM