735
FXUS61 KBUF 300604
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
204 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes with this issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler and dry today behind the front.

2) Another extended period of dry weather and above average
temperatures this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler and dry today behind the front.

A cool northwest flow and associated upslope flow and shallow lake
induced instability will support plenty of cloud cover, maybe even a
passing shower through at least midday today, with only
partial/gradual clearing in the afternoon. Temperatures will be much
cooler than the past few days but very close to average for the end
of October.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another extended period of dry weather and above
average temperatures this weekend through early next week.

Surface high pressure will settle over the eastern Great Lakes
Saturday, then gradually drift off the southern New England coast
Sunday through Monday. This feature will maintain dry weather across
the eastern Great Lakes with temperatures trending above average.

A more active pattern may develop by the middle to end of next week
as a deep trough moves slowly east across the CONUS, possibly
evolving into a closed low as it reaches the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes. There is considerable spread in ensemble members and
deterministic model runs with the timing of this system, but once it
arrives it will likely bring a wetter pattern that lasts for at
least a few days later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Areas of MVFR-IFR northwest upslope cigs will persist through this
morning as a shallow layer of low level moisture becomes trapped
beneath the inversion. Clouds may linger a bit into the afternoon in
some areas, but low level drying and diurnal mixing will allow CIGS
to return to VFR in most areas.

Tonight...surface high pressure slides in over the Lower Lakes with
mainly VFR conditions. Some valley fog will be possible in wind
sheltered area.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue today for the
nearshore zones from the Niagara River to Cape Vincent in the post-
frontal WNW flow. Winds and wave action will diminish from west to
east tonight.

Surface high pressure will moving overhead will support light wind
flow and minimal wave action over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will return today and then last through the
weekend. As a result, fine fuels and leaf litter will once again
become very dry.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR
FIRE WEATHER...AR/Hitchcock