642
FXUS61 KBUF 110604
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
204 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend with at
least periodic chances for some showers and scattered thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

2) A brief period of cool and dry weather is expected on Monday,
before unsettled weather arrives mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer and more humid conditions return this weekend
with at least periodic chances for some showers and scattered
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Surface high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the
Northeast through tonight. Clearing skies and calm winds will likely
result in patchy to areas of fog early this morning. Most of the fog
will be confined to valley locations inland from Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Fog will erode shortly after daybreak this morning, and dry
and calm weather will continue across the forecast area through
tonight.

Increasing southerly flow on the backside of the departing surface
high will bring warmer and more humid weather into the forecast area
Saturday. Dewpoint temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to
upper 60s across western NY by Saturday afternoon. The upper level
pattern suggests that a shortwave trough may move from the Tennessee
Valley to the Northeast. The combination a warm and moist airmass
ahead of an advancing trough will support increasing chances for
showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Ensemble
guidance suggests that the highest probability of rain will be from
the western Southern Tier to the eastern Lake Ontario region. Heavy
downpours are possible in any thunderstorms.

A cold front associated with low pressure near Hudson Bay is
expected to move across the forecast area late Saturday night
through Sunday. The plume of deep moisture will be exiting to the
east, and chances of showers and a few storms are higher across the
eastern lake Ontario region Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A brief period of cool and dry weather is expected
on Monday, before unsettled weather arrives mid-week.

An upper level trough will dig across the Northeast Monday, with
surface high pressure building across the area. A cool, northwest
flow will move into the forecast area with mean 850mb temperatures
falling to around +7C by Monday afternoon. Because the airmass is
very dry, little lake response is expected. High temperatures are
expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s.

An upper level ridge will briefly build across the Great Lakes
region Monday night before flattening out through mid-week. Warmer
air will move back into the region Tuesday with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s. A series of frontal boundaries may move across the
region and bring periods of showers and thunderstorms. Uncertainty
is high in timing of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the eastern
Great Lakes region through tonight. A shield of mid to high level
clouds will exit the region early this morning. Calm winds and clear
skies will support patchy to areas of fog inland from Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario early this morning. Fog is expected to be most
prevalent across the valleys of the western Southern Tier into the
Finger Lakes region and the Black River Valley. IFR or below
conditions are likely at KJHW while confidence is lower at KART.

Fog will erode shortly after daybreak and widespread VFR conditions
are expected across the region through most of tonight. There is a
low chance of patchy valley fog late tonight into Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Occasional showers/thunderstorms with
MVFR or worse are forecast during most of the time period, but dry
weather and VFR are likely Monday through Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will weaken across the waters this morning. West to
northwest winds 15 to 20 knots will support SCAs on
southeastern Lake Ontario early this morning.

Surface high pressure will cross the region today, with light winds
and negligible waves through tonight. South to southwest flow will
increase some over the weekend, however conditions are expected to
remain below SCA criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
         LOZ044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JM