Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
620 FXUS61 KBUF 261700 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 100 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain showers are expected tomorrow into Monday, with best chances across Central NY as a slow moving Nor`easter grazes the area. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain showers are expected tomorrow into Monday, with best chances across Central NY as a slow moving Nor`easter grazes the area. An unseasonably strong coastal low off the Delmarva will remain in place today while maturing and occluding. The coastal low will then complete a cyclonic loop to the south of Long Island tonight through Sunday, nearing the Jersey shore by late Sunday and Sunday night. The westward drift in the position of the vertically stacked low will advect Atlantic moisture westward across NY/PA, with thickening and lowering clouds. The first chance of showers will reach central NY Sunday morning, then progress gradually westward as an inverted trough axis north of the low center rotates westward. Showers may reach the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes by early to mid afternoon. Far western New York should stay dry most of Sunday, although a few light showers should arrive by late afternoon or evening. The coastal low is then forecast to slowly meander northeast along the New England coast Sunday night through Tuesday, weakening with time. The greatest rain chances and greatest western extent of the rain shield will be Sunday night, with showers then gradually tapering off and ending from west to east late Sunday night through Monday as the low weakens and moves northeast. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to persist this afternoon and tonight with high pressure remaining over the Great Lakes. By tomorrow morning, a slow moving Nor`Easter will make its closest approach to the region as it moves just south of NYC. This will result in moisture moving westward into central and eventually western NY begging by late morning. Rain showers and lower end VFR ceilings are likely as far west as Rochester by early afternoon, with conditions deteriorating moreso thereafter into tomorrow evening. Outlook... Sunday Night...Rain showers continue, most widespread over central NY. MVFR conditions are likely, with some potential for IFR conditions over the Finger Lakes up to the North Country. Monday...Chance of showers gradually ending from west to east. Mainly VFR, with some MVFR across the higher terrain of Central NY and the North Country. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly dry weather and VFR expected. && .MARINE... Winds will continue out of the north-northeast this afternoon on the lower Great Lakes, producing a moderate chop for much of the area. The highest winds and wave action in the nearshore zones will be found from Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay, where conditions will approach low end Small Craft Advisory criteria today. Winds will increase further late tonight and Sunday as a coastal low along the east coast makes its closest pass. This will bring solid Small Craft Advisory conditions to the Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay nearshores, with marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions elsewhere. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043-044. && $$ DISCUSSION...SGK/TMA AVIATION...SGK MARINE...SGK/TMA