337
FXUS61 KBUF 240555
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
155 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Cool weather and periodic showers and thunderstorms, some
of the lake-effect variety, are expected through Tuesday.

2.) Dry weather expected region-wide this Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Cool weather and periodic showers and
thunderstorms, some of the lake-effect variety, are expected
through Tuesday.

Surface low pressure near far SW Quebec this early morning will
slowly fill as it lifts northeastward today, while aloft a mid/upper
level closed low will pass across our region. Two noted short-wave
troughs, one near Lake Erie this morning, and a second near the
eastern waters of Lake Ontario this afternoon will bring added lift
to enhance showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Under this upper level low, 850 hPa temperatures will lower to
around +7C that with plenty of clouds around will leave temperatures
through the afternoon in the 60s...or about 10 to 15 degrees below
normal.

This cool airmass will also generate a fair amount of lake enhanced
rain showers as well as diurnally driven showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Initial showers and thunderstorms this morning near
Lake Erie and far WNY will diminish through the mid morning hours.
As daytime instability increases showers and a few thunderstorms
will increase inland, in addition to periodic lake enhanced batches
of showers arriving near the lake shores off the Lakes. This
secondary shortwave will enhance the coverage area of convection
this afternoon towards the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario
region.

Tonight, while inland convection will begin to wane, the still cool
cyclonic flow over the warm lake waters will continue to generate
periodic showers off the warm lake waters. Deeper moisture will be
found over Lake Ontario, and will place higher PoPs, and greater
amount of QPF here tonight for continued lake effect rain showers,
while scattered and lighter rain showers will be found off Lake
Erie.

On a WNW flow Tuesday rain showers will begin to taper off south and
southeast of first Lake Erie and then Lake Ontario as deeper
moisture wanes. A few afternoon showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
near the exiting upper level low will remain east of Lake Ontario.

Key Message 2...Dry weather expected region-wide this Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

By Tuesday night a mid level shortwave ridge will replace the
recently departed upper level low, with a surface ridge of high
pressure expanding northeastward across our region from the Ohio
Valley. This will bring clearing skies Tuesday night, with some
valley fog across the Southern Tier/Black River Valley. The surface
high pressure will crest over our region Wednesday, and with a light
southeasterly flow afternoon temperatures will return back to normal
under a mix of sunshine a fair weather cumulus.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cool moist cyclonic flow around the mid-level low will support
rounds of showers and some thunderstorms that may at times impact
terminals through Monday night. As diurnal heating returns, shower
and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across the area by early
this afternoon. Any amount of sunshine will quickly support cloud
development with MVFR/ low end VFR CIGS of 2500-3500 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage beginning Monday night
but a few storms will still be possible once again overnight as a
cool upper level low rotates across the Lower Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Showers and maybe a thunderstorm
will still be possible with localized restrictions.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions
possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A cool upper level low passing across the eastern Great Lakes region
today will continue a southwesterly flow of 15 to 25 knots over the
Lakes that will bring continued small craft advisory conditions to
the Lakes.

Behind a surface trough winds will veer to more westerly tonight
with waters remaining choppy, but diminishing through the night.
This flow will veer slightly further Tuesday with a WNY flow Tuesday
morning beginning to diminish in the afternoon with the exiting
upper level low, and the approach of a surface high pressure.

Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements remain in
effect. Lake-effect rain showers and thunderstorms may produce
waterspouts through Tuesday, amidst sizable lake-induced instability
as cool air associated with cyclonic flow around an upper-level low
crosses the warm lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NYZ001>007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...Thomas