061
FXUS61 KBUF 311727
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
127 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect an extended period of dry weather for the later half of the
Labor Day holiday weekend and into the first half of the week, as
surface high pressure dominates overhead of the Great Lakes. Cool
nights, will give way to mostly sunny and warm afternoons, as there
will be a day to day warming trend through the early portions of the
week. The next chance of rain will arrive in the later half of the
week with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Latest GOES satellite shows mostly clear skies across much of
western NY outside of diurnal fair weather cumulus development. WV
imagery highlights a dry airmass overhead as surface high pressure
remains positioned over much of the Great Lakes region this weekend.
Afternoon highs for Sunday have climbed around 70 degF so far with a
few warmer spots expected to climb into the upper 70s, such as near
Dansville later this afternoon. Overnight temperatures will not be
as cool as the past few nights, however 850mb temps around 10 degC
along with efficient radiation cooling will still support lows
around 50 and into the 40s along the higher terrain. Dry weather
will continue into Monday as surface high pressure remains over the
area, but begins to slide to our east over the northeast CONUS. The
gradual day to day warmup will continue as afternoon highs will be
in the mid to upper 70s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday high pressure draped from the mid-Atlantic states to New
England will only slowly drift to the east coast Meanwhile broad/
weak upper level troughing will remain in place aloft...with its
axis draped across central New York. Along and especially to the
east of this axis...the combination of somewhat better moisture and
diurnal heating could potentially lead to the development of some
isolated to widely scattered convection Tuesday afternoon. For our
area the best chances of this will be found across the North
Country...though it should be noted that some of the shorter-term
guidance continues to expand this potential a bit further westward.
Any convection that forms should then die out fairly quickly with
the loss of heating Tuesday evening...with fair dry weather
otherwise anticipated through Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Wednesday night the surface high will drift out into
the western Atlantic. Meanwhile aloft the initial upper trough will
eject out across Quebec...while a second and much deeper trough digs
from the Canadian Prairies to the Upper Great Lakes...with its
attendant surface low pushing its trailing cold front into the
central Great Lakes by the end of the period. The guidance suite
continues to slow the progression of this next system such that our
area will likely remain more under the influence of ridging and
therefore largely dry through most if not all of Wednesday night...
with just a lower-end chance of showers reaching far WNY late in the
period.

Otherwise...gradual warm advection/airmass modification will allow
temperatures to climb back to right around or a little above normal
by midweek...with an increasing southerly downslope flow out ahead
of the latter system then ensuring a mild to moderately warm
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday through Saturday deepening upper-level troughing will once
again overspread the Great Lakes and Northeast...with at least some
semblance of this then remaining across our region through Sunday.
Meanwhile at the surface...its attendant/elongated surface low and
at least one cold front will make their way east and across our
region...with forcing and moisture return along/ahead of these still
looking sufficient for another round of fairly widespread showers...
and perhaps a couple embedded thunderstorms depending upon its
timing.

Speaking of which...the various guidance packages continue to
exhibit a fair amount of spread with respect to the timing of this
next system...with this likely to be a function of just how much
phasing occurs with a possible southern stream trough/surface wave.
This results in an envelope of possibilities (albeit somewhat
narrower than seen yesterday) ranging from Thursday/ Thursday night
on the fast end to Friday/Friday night on the slow end...with the
consensus currently lying somewhere in the later Thursday/Thursday
night time frame. Have continued to place the highest PoPs
(categorical) in the latter with this package.

In the wake of the cold front...the arrival of a much cooler airmass
and general cyclonic flow will eventually result in the potential
for some more lake effect rain showers downwind of the lakes. The
exact timing of these remains in question due to lingering
uncertainty in the timing of the main cold front and the potential
for a period of low-level ridging/drying aloft in its wake...though
in general the best chances of this look to come Friday night into
Saturday...with the activity then slowly fading Saturday night/
Sunday as ridging and drier air arrive at the lower levels.

What is much more certain is that the gradual warming trend from
earlier in the week will be brought to an abrupt halt by the passage
of this system...with the much cooler airmass in its wake driving
temps back to notably below normal levels by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected across area terminals through the
forecast period with mostly clear skies this afternoon across
western NY outside of FEW daytime fair weather cumulus. Localized
valley fog will develop once again early Monday morning with light
winds and clear skies across the Southern Tier near KJHW as well as
in north-central NY near KART. Brief period of IFR visibility will
be possible through mid-morning. Clear and calm weather will
continue into Monday as high pressure remains over the area.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river
valley fog each late night and morning across the Southern Tier.

Thursday...MVFR with rain showers and gusty winds along a cold
frontal passage.

Friday...Mainly VFR with lingering rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure settling over the eastern Great Lakes for the
remainder of the holiday weekend with light winds and flat wave
action.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...Brothers
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Brothers
MARINE...Brothers/EAJ