562
FXUS61 KBUF 021755
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
155 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm possible through early
this evening. Otherwise...dry weather and warm conditions expected
through Wednesday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms Thursday,
turning cooler and quite breezy Friday with unsettled weather
continuing into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cu-field expanding across far WNY with scattered diurnally driven
showers, even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible this
afternoon. The best chance for showers or a stronger storm will
be found along any lake breeze boundary. The weak upper-level
low responsible for this activity will slowly drift north into
Quebec this evening. It will then get absorbed by the incoming
trough dropping southeast out of the Canadian Prairies tonight
and Wednesday.

Otherwise...most locales will see dry weather today and seasonable
temps with a range of 70s across the area.

Tonight...weak surface high pressure will continue to deliver dry
weather. Any remaining shower activity after sunset will quickly die
off. Lows mainly in the 50s, with the cooler spots seeing readings
in the upper 40s.

Surface high pressure drifts east to the coast Wednesday but will
continue to support dry quiet weather. A southerly breeze will help
to push temps firmly into the 70s, to low 80s in the Genesee Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will be in place for Wednesday to start the period as
weak ridging crosses the area. Partly to mostly sunny skies can be
expected. Winds will start to increase some out of the south later
in the day. Temperatures for Wednesday will warm to the low 70s to
low 80s from the higher terrain to the lower elevations,
respectively.

A large vertically stacked low will stall near James Bay from
Thursday morning through Friday night. This will bring the next
round of rain to the region as its first of two cold fronts tracks
across the area from mid morning through the afternoon on Thursday.
This will bring an organized line of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms across the area. Rain will be heavy at times as the
line crosses the area and as smaller waves of low pressure tracks
north along the front. Rainfall amounts of 0.50"-1.00" can be
expected for most area, with some localized higher amounts possible.
The fairly quick nature of the front should limit the rainfall to
those values, but if the front is a bit slower, then those rainfall
amounts will be higher. Winds will also increase ahead of the front
with increasing pressure gradient and as a llj moves over the area,
which will also help with the forcing for the rain. Wind gusts to at
least 30 mph look increasingly likely for Thursday. High
temperatures ahead of the front on Thursday will range from the mid
60s across the far southwestern portion of the area to near 80 for
the eastern portions of the area. Cooler temperatures in the low 70s
will be possible for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Showers will taper off from west to east early Thursday evening
through around midnight Thursday night behind the passing front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The vertically stacked system up by James Bay will slowly start to
track northeast through Saturday. But another cold front associated
with the system will track across the region on Friday evening as a
potent shortwave and sfc low get rapped into the larger scale
trough. This will send another round of showers across the area with
the passing cold front. Some timing issues still among guidance this
far out as well as strength of the passing front and the overall
rainfall amounts. Winds will once again increase ahead of and along
this front through the day on Friday, becoming weaker behind the
front. Elevated winds will still be possible on the lakes in the CAA
regime into the weekend.

Behind the passing cold front, cooling temperatures aloft and
cyclonic flow over the region will result in lake enhanced/effect
rain showers downwind of the lakes through at least Sunday night.
Some guidance continues the lake showers a little longer into the
start of next week with the associated trough a little slower to
push out of the region. High pressure will briefly push into the
region, bringing a dry day or two at the start of next week, before
the next system and round of showers approaches.

Temperatures will be near to a few degrees below normal to start the
period, with day-to-day cooling through the weekend to further
below. As high pressure shifts east of the area early next week,
temperatures will increase some, but still remain near to below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR but there is a low chance of a shower or isolated
thunderstorm this afternoon. Confidence in any of this activity
impacting area terminals is low at this time.

Shower potential ends tonight with mainly VFR. River valley fog is
possible in the Southern Tier overnight with localized IFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms. Gusty winds
also possible with the cold front.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with lingering rain showers and
gusty winds.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Spotty lake induced showers east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal waves are expected through Wednesday as high
pressure drifts east and off the New England coastline.

A cold front will then cross the area between Thursday and Thursday
night...with increasing southerlies to southwesterlies expected out
ahead of the front Thursday...and fairly brisk southwesterlies to
westerlies following in its wake Friday and Saturday. Eastern
portions of Lake Erie and western Ontario could see conditions reach
low-end SCA criteria for a time Thursday...with more widespread
advisory-level conditions then appearing more likely Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...Brothers
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR