936
FXUS61 KBUF 180010
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
810 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and any thunderstorms will diminish this evening and
tonight, with showers and thunderstorms forming slightly further
East on Wednesday. A cold front will move through on Wednesday night
into Thursday, bringing the potential for severe weather Thursday.
Building high pressure across the Great Lakes late this weekend will
bring unseasonably warm temperatures and increased humidity through
the start of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers (stratiform rain) and storms will stay focused across the S.
Tier this evening. That said...an incoming frontal boundary in
concert with ample low level moisture will support a few spotty
showers throughout the overnight period, especially from the
Southern Tier northeastward across the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake
Ontario region. Additionally with the lingering moisture and cooling
temperatures toward the dewpoint tonight, patches of fog are likely
to form across the terrain of the Southern Tier.

A mid-level trough will then push east into the Great Lakes
Wednesday as a cold front crosses the central Great Lakes towards
the lower Great Lakes, placing the forecast area beneath the warm
sector ahead of the front. Increasing warmth and humidity along with
diurnal instability will support the chances for showers and
thunderstorms again Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly inland
from the lakes. Similar to today, thunderstorms should be of the
garden variety as shear values are unfavorable however, heavy
downpours will be possible due to ample moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A prefrontal trough and cold front push through the area Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, with an additional round of showers and
thunderstorms. Unfavorable timing should limit severe threat, but
precipitable water value over 1.5" suggests the potential for
locally heavy rainfall. Some guidance tracks a weak secondary sfc
low along the front, increasing the potential for heavier showers.
There may be enough instability for the eastern half of the forecast
for some strong to severe thunderstorms. The greatest potential for
severe thunderstorms is for far eastern Lewis County, where SPC has
a `Slight Risk` for severe thunderstorms. There is also a `Marginal
Risk` for excessive rainfall from WPC for the entire forecast area
on Thursday as well, with the heaviest rainfall expected along and
ahead of the front. Convection will gradually diminish late Thursday
as the cold front exits. Some guidance continues a few showers
through the night on Thursday with the trough axis of the larger
scale trough over the region.

Friday, some showers will be possible with the remnants of upstream
convection and a shortwave trough within a northwest flow. Guidance
is starting to back off some on the potential for showers/storms, but
this will be closely monitored.

Temperatures will reach the mid 70s to near 80 across much of the
area for the period. With the passing front on Thursday,
temperatures will be coolest to warmest from west to east. On
Friday, as temperatures start to warm some, the coolest areas will
be across the North Country, where cooler air will be slowest to
warm.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next stout upper level ridge will slide across the Gulf States
Saturday before amplifying northeastward Sunday and into the start
of next week. This upper level feature will bring steady increasing
heat and humidity into the region for the weekend and into the start
of the new work week. However, an ill-timed shortwave ridge-runner
will support the possibility for a few rounds of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday before surface high pressure
then dominates overhead for the start of the week. As alluded to
previously, the combination of 500 mb heights building to near 600dm
over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes would support very hot
and humid conditions with heat index values climbing well into the
90s starting Sunday, and continuing through the rest of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR-LIFR will be found across the S. Tier where earlier storms
formed and now straiform rain is falling. Elsewhere...VFR is
anticipated to continue at all other termianls this evening.

Tonight...some patchy fog is likely to form, especially in areas
(KJHW-KELZ) that received precipitaton. Where fog occurs
termianals will see IFR-LIFR conditions overnight.


Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms
likely.

Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly east of KROC.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light southerly flow becomes southwest late tonight and then
strengthens a bit on Wednesday. This will `likely` produce some chop
on the lakes but remain well below small craft conditions. A low
pressure system passing to our west on Wednesday, and its cold front
drawing near to the region will further strengthen southwest flow
across the lakes through Thursday. This will potential bring a
period of SCA criteria on both lakes, with higher wave action found
on eastern half of Lake Ontario. High pressure builds back across
the region Friday, with diminishing winds and lower wave action as
we head into the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/EAJ
NEAR TERM...AR/EAJ
SHORT TERM...SW/TMA
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR