345
FXUS61 KBUF 090920
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
520 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes today will drift
to New England Friday, with dry and cool weather. There will be
widespread frost tonight through Friday morning, with below freezing
temperatures in some of the typical colder inland locations. Dry
weather will persist Saturday before a mid level low approaches from
the west and brings a chance of showers Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A northerly flow of chilly air will continue to produce some lake
effect and upslope clouds south of Lake Ontario early this morning.
Lake effect clouds and a light breeze will likely limit frost
potential in many areas south of Lake Ontario, with frost limited to
the North Country and the more sheltered valleys of the Southern
Tier.

While the airmass remains cold today, strong subsidence and drying
will bring an end to lake effect clouds later this morning, with
increasing amounts of sunshine for the afternoon. Despite the
sunshine, highs will only reach the mid 50s for lower elevations and
around 50 on the highest hills in this cool airmass.

Clear skies and diminishing winds will allow for good radiational
cooling conditions tonight. That said, with the center of the
surface high drifting east into New England overnight, forecast
soundings suggest winds will not go completely calm in most areas,
which will prevent the full potential of radiational cooling from
being realized. Even so, expect widespread frost overnight, with
below freezing temperatures across the typically colder Southern
Tier valleys and east of Lake Ontario. With this in mind, a Freeze
Warning has been issued for Cattaraugus, Allegany, Oswego,
Jefferson, and Lewis counties, with a Frost Advisory for the
remainder of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The stout sfc high drifts off the Northeast coast Friday, then
begins to consolidate with the ridge passing to our north Friday
night. Overall...dry weather is expected to be maintained and
temperatures will trend warmer. Highs Friday will be in the low/mid
60s, possibly a bit cooler across the Tug Hill.

Sfc ridge will `likely` maintain mainly dry weather for much of the
region Saturday. That said...a compact shortwave diving southeast
towards the region may introduce a few showers late across far
western New York. Otherwise...it will be even warmer Saturday with
mercury readings in the 60s everywhere, a few locations in the
Genesee Valley may see temps in the low 70s.

The compact shortwave and its interaction (consolidation) with a
coastal low will determine precipitation chances through Sunday
night. With that said...some guidance suggest moisture from this
coastal low will get drawn up into the area by Saturday night.
However...ensembles are still not in agreement and all over the
board for Sunday through the Sunday night time frame. For now...will
make little deviation from NBM guidance with chance PoPs over our
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The stout ridge over the Quebec/New Brunswick will determine the
progression or suppression of the coastal low Monday, and then its
eventual departure. After that...weak sfc ridge looks like it will
build in Tuesday which will then provide dry weather and seasonable
temperatures through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chilly northerly flow will continue to produce areas of lake effect
and upslope clouds south of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie early this
morning, with VFR bases in the 4-6K foot range. The center of strong
high pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes today, with
associated strong subsidence and drying bringing an end to lake
effect clouds by late morning, with mainly clear skies this
afternoon.

The surface high will drift east into New England tonight with clear
skies and VFR prevailing.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...VFR.

Sunday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northerlies will continue across the Lower Great Lakes
through early this morning. This will continue to bring Small Craft
Advisory conditions to areas along the south shore of Lake Ontario
through mid morning.

As surface high pressure builds towards our region today winds and
waves will relax further, and then remain below small craft
thresholds through the weekend with the area of high pressure nearby.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ001>005-010>014-019-085.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ006-019>021-
     085.
     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ006>008-020-021.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock