792
FXUS61 KBUF 031723
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1223 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Section for 18z TAF package. Updated Key
Message 1 with some tweaks.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unusually warm weather is expected This afternoon and
Wednesday, with forecast temperatures potentially reaching
record highs for early November.

2) High probability for widespread showers Wednesday night through
Thursday due to the passage of a cold front. Unsettled weather is
expected to continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unusually warm weather this afternoon and
Wednesday, with forecast temperatures potentially reaching
record highs for early November.

Temperatures already around 70F at KIAG and KROC. Record is 75F
at KROC so that has a shot to be broken.

A mid-level ridge will continue to build east across the Atlantic
seaboard through mid-week, supporting surface high pressure to
persist off the eastern Atlantic. Overall this will support
generally dry weather. The warm front has lifted through most of
the western and central areas, and should reach the east by
evenings. In the wake of the front, dry air advection and
subsidence will support a decrease in cloud cover from west to
east through tonight. A 25 to 30 knot low- level jet will move
into the western Southern Tier tonight, supporting a south-
southeast surface wind within a modest inversion. As such, gusty
downslope winds of up to 30mph along and to the lee side of the
Chautauqua Ridge is likely. Gusts will lessen on the lee side
of the Ridge Wednesday.

As the upper ridge builds further north Wednesday, 850mb
temperatures will continue to rise, peaking to +13C. As such
another very warm day for early November is expected, where
maximum temperatures will range in the mid to upper 70s. As
winds are forecast to remain southerly, lake breeze influences
will likely be limited and therefor allow temperatures to soar
well above climatological norms. See Climate section for more
information regarding record temperatures.

Cooler air will build into the region from west to east Thursday,
however it will remain warm especially from the Finger Lakes region
into north-central NY. Cooler weather, although still above normal
is expected Friday into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High probability for widespread showers Wednesday
night through Thursday due to the passage of a cold front. Unsettled
weather is expected to continue into the weekend.

Deep troughing and associated closed low will move into the Great
Lakes for the later half of the work week. A deep southerly flow
originating from the Gulf and southern Atlantic Ocean will support a
plume of moisture into the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday
night through Thursday morning. This deep moisture combined with
forcing from the surface to 500mb due to a passing cold front will
support widespread showers across the region, and provide some much
needed relief to the recent dry spell. However should note that the
shower`s residence timing will be quick, as the plume of
moisture will move east of the region by Thursday afternoon.
Forecast rainfall amounts will generally be less than a quarter
of an inch by Thursday afternoon.

In the wake of the cold front, expect gusty southwest winds
northeast of Lake Erie with gusts of 25 to 30 mph impacting much of
the Niagara Frontier.

The trough will move overhead Friday and this weekend, where another
cold front is progged to pass across the region, where chances for
showers are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
In the wake of the warm frontal passage, dry air advection and
subsidence will result VFR cloud cover to scatter out from west
to east this evening. MVFR lingering at KART should improve to
VFR during the afternoon.

VFR conditions will then persist overnight tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Restrictions possible Wednesday night
especially in the western airports after 06z.

Thursday through Saturday...Restrictions possible with showers
likely at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure centered off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic
this afternoon morning will drift further out to sea into
tonight. As such, light to modest south/southwesterly winds
will prevail through today. Then, southerly flow will strengthen
Wednesday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
While this may produce some modest chop on area lakes,
conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Unusually warm weather across western and north-central New York
is expected this afternoon and Wednesday. Forecast temperatures
are expected to be around 20 degrees above normal for part of
the first week of November. Here is a list of record high
temperatures, record high minimum temperatures, and normals for
the next few days.

                 Record High Temperatures(F)

                        Buffalo     Rochester    Watertown

Tuesday, November 3     80(1961)    75(1938)     74(1961)
Normal                  53          54           52

Wednesday, November 4   74(2022)    78(2015)     73(2015)
Normal                  52          54           51

                 Record High Minimum Temperatures(F)

                        Buffalo     Rochester    Watertown

Tuesday, November 3     58(1938)    58(1975)     57(1961)
Normal                  38          38           34

Wednesday, November 4   57(1935)    58(1987)     56(1987)
Normal                  38          38           33

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...Craven