Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
440 FXUS61 KBUF 241727 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 127 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal change to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather will continue through Sunday night. 2) A cold front will bring a chance of a few scattered light showers to northern New York Monday, followed by a brief cooldown Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather will continue through Sunday night. Chamber of commerce weather will continue through the end of the weekend with dry weather and clear skies through Sunday evening. Tonight will be cool once again, with lows dropping back into the 30s areawide, and some 20s in the colder Southern Tier Valleys and Tug Hill region. There may be a small amount of river valley fog across the Southern Tier late tonight through Sunday morning. Full sunshine will continue Sunday as strong high pressure remains anchored along the southern New England coast. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today, with highs in the mid 60s for lower elevations and around 60 on the hilltops. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will bring a chance of a few scattered light showers to northern New York Monday, followed by a brief cooldown Tuesday. A mid level trough will sharpen and dig southeast across Quebec Monday, dragging an associated cold front south across the eastern Great Lakes. The majority of the stronger forcing and deeper moisture will remain displaced well north of the area. A few scattered light showers may cross the Saint Lawrence Valley and higher terrain of the North Country. Otherwise, the front will likely pass through the rest of the area dry with nothing more than an increase in cloud cover. Cold advection behind the departing front will bring a brief one day cooldown Tuesday. Highs will reach the low to mid 50s across Western NY and 40s for the North Country. A ridge surface and aloft will quickly build back into the eastern CONUS Wednesday and last through the end of next week. This will bring another long period of dry weather and above average high temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will remain anchored over southern New England through Sunday evening, with clear skies and VFR prevailing. The one exception may be a small amount of river valley fog across the Southern Tier late tonight through Sunday morning with local IFR. Forecast soundings do not support this fog impacting the hilltop KJHW airfield. Outlook... Monday...Scattered light rain showers across northern NY. Areas of MVFR CIGS possible areawide. Tuesday through Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds will become SSW overnight through Sunday on both lakes, with a light chop developing mainly in offshore waters. A cold front will approach the lower Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday, with southwest winds increasing further and bringing a moderate chop to both lakes. The cold front will cross the area by Monday afternoon, with winds veering to the northwest late Monday and then northeast Monday night. A brief period of low end Small Craft Advisory conditions is possible Monday night through Tuesday morning in some areas before winds diminish Tuesday afternoon. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock