099
FXUS61 KBUF 291714
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
114 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Another cold front will cross the area this evening with a few
showers, followed by below normal temperatures Saturday.

2) Near to slightly below normal temperatures through the first half
of next week, with a few showers possible at times east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Another cold front will cross the area this
evening with a few showers, followed by below normal
temperatures Saturday.

A compact and vigorous mid level closed low will drop southeast
across eastern NY and New England tonight, with a trailing cold
front moving south across the area this evening. The stronger
forcing and deeper moisture associated with this system will pass
east of the area, with the greatest coverage of showers this
afternoon and evening east of Lake Ontario. Farther west, the low
level front will have little in the way of large scale support or
deep moisture, with just a low chance of a few sprinkles or
scattered light showers. Showers will end in most areas by mid to
late evening, although a few additional showers will cross the
eastern Lake Ontario region overnight.

Strong cold advection behind the front will drop temperatures into
the 40s overnight, with even some upper 30s possible across the Tug
Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks. Unseasonably cool weather will
continue Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 60s for lower
elevations and upper 50s higher terrain. High pressure will build
into the Great Lakes Saturday night, supporting another chilly night
with lows in the 40s areawide, and even upper 30s in some of the
colder Southern Tier Valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Near to slightly below normal temperatures through
the first half of next week, with a few showers possible at times
east of Lake Ontario.

Relatively benign weather is expected Sunday through the middle of
next week. A deep trough will remain in place downstream across
eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes, with the eastern
Great Lakes situated in northerly flow aloft between this trough and
an Omega Block over the Canadian Prairie Provinces. A series of mid
level shortwaves will move through the mean longwave trough and
support a chance of a few showers at times east of Lake Ontario late
Sunday through Tuesday, but rainfall amounts will be light with each
round. Farther west, mainly dry conditions are expected from the
Genesee Valley westward.

Temperatures will remain near or slightly below average through the
first half of next week. Highs most days will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s for lower elevations Sunday through Tuesday, with mid 60s
higher terrain. A warming trend will likely develop towards the end
of next week as the ridge over central North America begins to
flatten and build east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level closed low and associated weak but compact surface
low over Southern Quebec this afternoon will slide across lower New
England through tonight. This will force a cold front southward
through the eastern Great Lakes this evening. Conditions are
expected to prevail in VFR range at most of the TAF sites, though
periods of MVFR cigs are expected south and east of KROC (including
KART) through Saturday morning. The primary timeframe for these MVFR
cigs will be behind the front from 03z to 15z Saturday.

Breezy southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the front with
gusts in the 25-30kt range. A wind shift from southwest to northwest
and then northerly with then occur this evening with the frontal
passage, with KBUF/KIAG/KROC seeing northerly winds by roughly 01z-
02z. Winds will subside some overnight, though a 5-15kt northerly
breeze will persist.

The cold front will also spark a few rounds of showers through about
09z Saturday morning. While a stray light shower or two cannot be
ruled out in most areas, deeper moisture and thus chances for rain
and occasional MVFR vsbys are expected to be greatest across the
North Country. Precip chances range from 15-20% at KBUF/KIAG to near
70% at KART, greatest from 20z to 00z this afternoon.

The closed low will pivot east-southeastward away from the New
England coast through the day Saturday, pulling moisture away from
the region with it. This will lead to an improvement back to
areawide VFR dry weather by the afternoon. Winds will remain north-
northeasterly, diminishing to 10kts or less after the 18z TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Saturday Night...Mainly VFR. River valley fog possible in the
Southern Tier.

Sunday...VFR.

Sunday Night...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers across the North
Country.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, with a slight chance of
showers/MVFR east of Lake Ontario.

Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
West-southwest winds will increase into the 15-20 knot range this
afternoon on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie ahead of an approaching cold
front, producing Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes. The
front will move south across the lakes this evening, with winds
becoming northerly and still strong enough to produce Small Craft
Advisory conditions overnight on both lakes. Very choppy conditions
will continue through Saturday morning before winds quickly drop off
Saturday afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes across the lower
Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ007.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ010-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for
         LOZ045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...Hitchcock