Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
233 FXUS61 KBUF 061739 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 139 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather will continue tonight through Tuesday. 2) A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Wednesday night, bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather will continue tonight through Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build south across the Great Lakes region tonight through Labor Day before drifting to the eastern seaboard by Tuesday. This will maintain dry and tranquil weather across the region through Tuesday. Cool low level northerly flow may produce a few more lake effect clouds tonight through Monday morning over and south of Lake Ontario. Otherwise, radiational cooling and light winds will allow some fog to develop overnight through Monday morning in the valleys of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. There may be some patchy thin fog elsewhere, but the most prevalent fog will be across the Southern Tier. Expect a similar distribution of fog again late Monday night through Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be quite cool tonight, dropping back into the lower 50s on the lake plains and mid 40s across the Southern Tier valleys and North Country. A day to day warming trend will then develop Monday through the middle of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Wednesday night, bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region. A sharp mid level trough will advance east across Ontario and Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, with the southern extent of height falls spreading east across the Great Lakes region. A narrow axis of greater moisture will be advected into the eastern Great Lakes just ahead of the system, with surface dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s by Wednesday afternoon and contributing to at least some instability. A pre-frontal trough is forecast to advance east across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night, with some timing differences still showing in latest model guidance. Increasing moisture and forcing for ascent along and ahead of the mid level trough and pre-frontal trough will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday through Wednesday night. Shear will increase as a belt of enhanced mid level flow near the base of the trough moves into the area. There may be at least some limited severe potential if the timing of forcing aligns with the diurnal heating cycle and sufficient instability develops. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Under cooler high pressure and light northerly flow, scattered to at times broken ceilings around 3000-5000 ft will continue the rest of the afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing. Tonight, high pressure builds closer allowing for mostly clear and calm conditions to develop. Strong radiational cooling will result, and with that the threat of fog development. With soils still saturated from the recent wet weather, fog could become locally dense across the valleys of the Southern Tier including KJHW, with patchier fog expected across the southern and western Finger Lakes region. IFR conditions will be possible in the valleys, with MVFR level fog elsewhere. Fog should quickly dissipate after sunrise with VFR conditions expected the rest of the day tomorrow. Outlook... Monday Night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Localized flight restrictions possible. Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Friday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Moderate northeast flow will continue to produce very choppy conditions on Lake Ontario this afternoon, with a light chop on Lake Erie. High pressure will then settle overhead tonight through Monday, with diminishing winds and improving boating conditions on the lower Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday. A cold front will then approach the lower Great Lakes Wednesday before crossing the area Wednesday night or early Thursday. Winds will increase both ahead and behind this cold front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely on both lakes Wednesday through Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hitchcock AVIATION...SGK MARINE...Hitchcock