922
FXUS61 KBUF 290129
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
929 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes through the first
half of tonight with showers and scattered thunderstorms producing
widespread, beneficial rain. The widespread rain will end from west
to east overnight, but a few widely scattered lake effect rain
showers will continue through Friday southeast of the Lakes. The
coolest airmass since mid June will arrive Friday with temperatures
well below average. Mainly dry weather and a warming trend will then
arrive for the Labor Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A sharp mid level trough will close off into a mid level low over
southern Quebec tonight through Friday night, with an associated
surface cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes through the
first half of tonight. Strong forcing in the DPVA and height falls
ahead of the trough and strong convergence along the advancing cold
front will be aided by additional lake generated instability to
support widespread showers and embedded scattered thunderstorms
along and ahead of the front. The rain will peak in coverage across
the area through late this evening before tapering off from west to
east through the overnight. This will bring beneficial rain to our
region, with 0.25" to 0.50" on average and embedded pockets of
around 1.0" where lake enhanced convection develops east of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.

A much cooler airmass will pour into the Great Lakes behind the cold
front, supporting scattered lake effect rain showers overnight
through Friday morning southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The
airmass dries out quickly Friday, so most of the lake effect showers
will end by midday. Another spoke of vorticity orbiting the mid
level closed low will clip the eastern Lake Ontario region late
Friday afternoon and evening, and this may support a few more
scattered showers over and east/southeast of Lake Ontario.

The coolest airmass since mid June will arrive Friday, with highs
only in the low to mid 60s for lower elevations and 50s across
higher terrain. Lows Friday night will drop well into the 40s inland
from the immediate lakeshores, with some upper 30s possible in
sheltered Southern Tier valleys and the Tug Hill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The center of a stacked low pressure system will slowly drift from
southern Quebec to New Brunswick through Sunday morning, then east
across the Canadian Maritimes through Monday while further
weakening. Cool cyclonic flow around this system will allow for at
least a couple more days of below normal temps, though moderating
temps aloft will translate to sfc temps will see a more notable day
to day warming trend. By Monday daytime highs will average close to
normal for the first of September though with nighttime lows
remaining on the cool side through Monday night.

While the initial overhead airmass will be cool enough aloft to
cause a lake response over the weekend, with strong high pressure
building in there appears to be too little synoptic moisture to
meaningfully add chances for lake effect showers at this juncture.
Even the typically aggressive CMCreg has been mostly dry through the
period for the past couple of runs. The best chances for any precip
are thus expected to be closer to the departing trough up near the
Western Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An expansive sfc to mid level ridge will extend to the Ohio Valley
and Mid-Alantic regions from the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday through
Wednesday. Mainly dry weather with seasonably warm temperatures will
prevail as a result. The next deep longwave trough will then dig
southward into the Great Lakes heading into the second half of the
week, forcing the next strong cold front into the region with
increasing chances for precip. Low confidence in timing of showers
and potential thunderstorms associated with this system, as long
range guidance appears to have a poor handle on the degree of
phasing between the northern and southern stream jets.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will sweep east across the eastern Great Lakes through
late this evening, with a period of widespread showers and a few
scattered thunderstorms. Initial VFR CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR
lower elevations and IFR higher terrain a few hours after the rain
begins, with lower CIGS lingering behind the cold front overnight.
Intermittent MVFR/IFR VSBYS will be possible with any heavier
showers/thunderstorms.

The widespread rain will taper off from west to east overnight, but
scattered lake effect rain showers will linger southeast of Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie into Friday morning. MVFR CIGS (and higher
terrain IFR) Friday morning will gradually improve to mainly VFR by
the afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night...A few lake effect showers and MVFR CIGS possible east
and southeast of Lake Ontario. Otherwise VFR.

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river valley fog
each late night and morning across the Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move east across the lower Great Lakes this
evening into the early overnight. Moderate to strong southwesterlies
ahead of the front will continue to produce solid Small Craft
Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will become
northwest behind the front tonight, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions continuing on Lake Ontario through early Friday morning.

Northwest winds will remain elevated Friday through Saturday,
especially on Lake Ontario, producing a moderate chop.

Conditions will be very favorable for waterspouts through late this
evening into the early overnight with deep instability over the
lakes and strong convergence along bands of lake enhanced showers
and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front. A few more
waterspouts are possible in lake effect rain showers on eastern Lake
Ontario second half of tonight through Friday evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 AM EDT Friday for NYZ003>007.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Friday for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JM
MARINE...Hitchcock/JM