609
FXUS61 KBUF 292243
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
643 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes with this issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers tonight, cooler and dry on Friday in the wake of the cold
front.

2) Another extended period of dry weather and above average
temperatures this weekend through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers tonight, cooler and dry on Friday in the
wake of the cold front.

A low amplitude mid level trough will advance east across Quebec
tonight, with an associated surface cold front moving southeast
across the eastern Great Lakes this evening. Large scale forcing is
weak, but a focused ribbon of low level convergence along the front
and a narrow axis of sufficient moisture will support a band of
showers moving from northwest to southeast across the area through
the first half of tonight. The fast moving nature of the system will
keep rainfall amounts less than 0.25" in most areas, and less than
0.10" across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes as the
southwesterly boundary layer flow downslopes off the higher terrain
of the western Southern Tier. Rain will quickly end from northwest
to southeast after midnight following the cold frontal passage.

Cool northwest flow aloft and associated upslope flow and shallow
lake induced instability will support plenty of cloud cover through
at least midday Friday, with only partial/gradual clearing in the
afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler than the past few days
but very close to average for the end of October.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another extended period of dry weather and above
average temperatures this weekend through early next week.

A mid/upper level ridge will quickly build back into the central and
eastern CONUS this weekend and persist through early next week as a
deep trough moves slowly east from the Rockies. Surface high
pressure will settle over the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, then
gradually drift off the southern New England coast Sunday through
Monday. This feature will maintain dry weather across the eastern
Great Lakes with temperatures trending above average.

A more active pattern may develop by the middle to end of next week
as a deep trough moves slowly east across the CONUS, possibly
evolving into a closed low as it reaches the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes. There is considerable spread in ensemble members and
deterministic model runs with the timing of this system, but once it
arrives it will likely bring a wetter pattern that lasts for at
least a few days later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold font will cross the eastern Great Lakes from northwest to
southeast this evening, with a broken band of showers crossing the
region. The showers will only last for a few hours at any given
location, but a few brief moderate showers may drop VSBY to MVFR for
a short period of time. The showers will quickly end from northwest
to southeast overnight following the cold frontal passage.

Areas of MVFR CIGS will develop overnight and last through the first
half of Friday as a shallow layer of low level moisture becomes
trapped beneath the inversion behind the cold front. Northwest
upslope flow and lake effect clouds will help to maintain fairly
widespread low stratus through Friday morning. Clouds may linger
Friday afternoon in some areas, but low level drying and diurnal
mixing will allow CIGS to return to VFR in most areas.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwesterlies early this evening will veer to the
northwest tonight following the passage of a cold front. Marginal
Small Craft Advisory conditions will briefly develop in the
nearshore zones from Ripley to Buffalo for a few hours this evening
before winds and waves diminish overnight. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will last much longer in the nearshore zones from the
Niagara River to Cape Vincent in the post-frontal WNW flow, lasting
much of the time through Friday evening before diminishing from west
to east overnight.

Much lighter winds and flat wave action will return for the weekend
as high pressure drifts east from the Great Lakes to southern New
England.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No measurable rain has fallen for nearly two weeks (11 days) in
most of our region. The extended period of dry weather and
sunshine has cured fine fuels and leaf litter, bringing some
increase in wildfire risk. There have been a number of leaf,
brush, and grass fires across the region in recent days.

A weak cold front passing through tonight should generate
mainly light rain showers with rainfall amounts of 0.10" or less
in most areas. Dry weather will then follow Friday and last
through the weekend. As a result, fine fuels and leaf litter
will remain very dry.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday
         for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
FIRE WEATHER...Hitchcock