034
FXUS61 KBUF 140744
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
344 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain stalled just to our south through the
weekend, with a series of weak low pressure systems rippling east
along the boundary. This will bring showers and a few thunderstorms
to the Southern Tier at times. Farther north, mainly dry conditions
expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-level shortwave trough will drift east into the Ohio Valley
today. Several weak waves of low pressure will ripple east along a
stalled frontal boundary draped across Ohio and Pennsylvania,
supporting a period of showers across the southern half of the area
this morning, before retreating back southward this afternoon. Areas
generally north of the NYS Thruway should remain dry through
today, with only an outside chance for a shower this morning.

Tonight, the more organized rain will stay south and east of our
area. A few spotty showers are still possible across the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes, otherwise dry weather is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian-sourced surface high pressure will dominate our weather
through the period, while the stalled out frontal boundary remains
to our south, stretching from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic
states. While this setup will feature the expected comfortable
temperatures with tolerable humidity levels by mid June standards,
it may not be `completely` dry as one would expect. This will be
owed to a weakness in the high that will be in the form of an
inverted trough extending north across our region from an area of
weak low pressure slowly tracking east along the stalled out
boundary to the south. Despite this, still expecting much of the
time to be dry, however can`t rule out a few scattered showers for
some areas. With a general lack of any strong synoptic forcing and
limited moisture, bulk of any scattered activity that does manage to
develop will be mainly during the hours of peak heating. Best
chances to remain completely dry will be toward the Canadian border.

High temperatures that will remain a bit below average for the
second half of the weekend will get a bit of an upward bump, nearing
normal levels to start off the new work week. This will occur as
high pressure translates off the coast of Nova Scotia, causing winds
to gradually veer from northeast to southeast creating a warming
return flow on the back side of the high.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A quasi-zonal flow pattern across the northern half of the CONUS to
start off the period, will see a more noticeable pattern change
heading into the midweek timeframe as a phasing shortwave pattern
over the upper Midwest causes a deeper, more robust trough to be
carved out across the Great Lakes. This system will also force the
stalled boundary over the Ohio Valley to finally lift back northward
as a warm front, which is expected to move through the eastern Great
Lakes on Wednesday, opening the door to a much warmer and more humid
summer-type airmass. The increase in low level jet forcing,
moisture, and instability in the warm sector behind this front could
set the stage for a rather active period of weather between
Wednesday and Thursday. Just looking at the overall setup, the
possibility for some stronger storms is definitely on the table.
That said...the timing, track, and intensity of the incoming trough
and associated surface low/attendant cold front remain in question
at this range, and thus uncertainty is high in the details and
overall potential for more robust convection. Confidence is higher
in a brief warmup with widespread high temperatures in the 80s
expected by Wednesday afternoon, and possibly Thursday afternoon as
well, just dependent on the timing of the cold front.

Temperatures, humidity levels, and shower/thunderstorm chances will
lower by the end of the work week behind the system, although some
medium range guidance does hint at a lingering upper level trough
over the area, which may keep things a bit unsettled. Confidence is
higher that a cooler and more refreshing airmass will be in place
for the tail end of the period, however chances for at least some
precipitation will linger.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers will continue south of a KBUF-KSYR line this morning. Cigs
this morning will remain high end MVFR/low end VFR, but IFR across
the Southern Tier including KJHW.

Showers will gradually retreat southward, with most areas becoming
dry by early afternoon. CIGS/VSBY will also improve back to VFR.
Farther north, expect mainly dry weather and VFR from the NYS
Thruway northward.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly across the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
especially southern portions of the area.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build slowly east across Quebec this weekend
while several waves of low pressure ripple along a stalled frontal
zone across Ohio and Pennsylvania. The pressure gradient between
these features will maintain northeast winds on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario, with a moderate chop on both lakes.

High pressure will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Monday,
with winds veering southeasterly and weakening on both Lakes. The
weakening and now offshore flow component will allow waves to
subside, with little to no chop expected for the start of the new
work week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/PP
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA