Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
832 FXUS61 KBUF 282320 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 720 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased areal extent of fog and low clouds tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light showers end this evening, with low clouds and fog lingering into tomorrow morning. 2) Warming trend mid-week ahead of the next rain shower bearing cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Light showers end this evening, with low clouds and fog lingering into tomorrow morning. A mature nor`easter continues to spiral across the Northeast this afternoon, with the storm center located just south of Long Island. Wrap around moisture will continue to blanket our region with clouds this afternoon and evening, with a few showers across the North Country. As the low level inverted trough and forcing associated with this now weakening low exits to the east showers will end, but low level moisture will remain abundant. This low level moisture will again bring low stratus and fog to much of our region tonight. Areas of fog and low clouds will shroud the hill tops in fog, with perhaps a bit of drizzle at times. Patches of fog are likely to be forming as well across the Lake Plain. Drier air pushing southward tomorrow will aid in eroding fog and low clouds from north to south, with clouds across the inland Southern Tier fading last by early Tuesday evening. The now mainly clear skies tomorrow night may allow for river valley fog to form, though increasing high clouds from the west may limit the areal extent of the fog. Will include fog with this forecast package update for our eastern areas where fog will be most likely. KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend mid-week ahead of the next rain shower bearing cold front. Our wind flow will become southerly by Wednesday of this week, allowing a warm autumn airmass to push into our region. In conjunction with a ridge aloft, and 850 hPa temperatures rising into the upper teens, surface high temperatures will become some 10 degrees or more above normal, with Thursday the likely warmest day this week. A few sites, especially within the Genesee Valley, will make a run at 80F on Thursday. The ensemble suite (ENS, GEFS, and GEPS) continues to highlight Thursday evening and overnight for the next chance for rain showers. Activity is expected to be light upon the front with most areas around a tenth of an inch or less...with a spotty two-tenths possible across the Southern Tier. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mixture of VFR to mostly MVFR clouds this evening with drizzle and showers diminishing as well. Reintroduction of low level moisture tonight will bring lowering flight conditions, and formation of fog. Expect IFR or lower flight conditions for the Southern Tier (KJHW) while low clouds area also likely for the North Country (KART) even the lower elevations of the lake plain may have patches of fog or low ceiling heights, though MVFR flight conditions are likely to be the rule. Surface high pressure to our west will near the TAF region tomorrow, with light wind flow continuing. This will make for a slow improvement to the flight conditions, with most areas returning to MVFR by 12-14Z. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Thursday night and Friday...VFR to IFR with a chance of showers. Saturday...Showers with MVFR flight conditions return. && .MARINE... Behind a nor`easter and approach of an upstream surface high pressure, light northerly wind flow will be found across the lakes. The light winds may even go variable through Tuesday with patches of fog overnight on the lakes. Tuesday night winds will become southerly ahead of the next surface trough, with wind speeds increasing to around 10 knots or so on Wednesday. Winds will increase further on Thursday ahead of a cold front with a SSW flow around 15 knots over the Lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thomas AVIATION...EAL/Thomas MARINE...Thomas