Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
411 FXUS61 KBUF 050000 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minimal changes with this forecast update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Periodic showers and thunderstorms expected through this evening. Otherwise, quiet weather is likely through Labor Day. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Periodic showers and thunderstorms expected through this evening. Otherwise, quiet weather is likely through Labor Day. NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs impact Western and Central NY through tonight. At the surface, a high pressure ridge builds slowly from northern ON and vicinity. Periods of isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through this evening, roughly along and southwest of a Youngstown to Dansville line in our CWA, as primarily weak boundary layer instability is released by the following: low- level convergence and moist ascent along surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave troughs; downshear outflow boundaries interacting favorably with low-level vertical wind shear associated with moderate to strong deep-layer bulk shear. The greatest potential for a few thunderstorms exists in the Western Southern Tier, where boundary layer CAPE is expected to be greater. Despite the sizable deep-layer bulk shear magnitudes, severe thunderstorms are not expected due to relatively-limited instability. Showers and any storms are expected to end by midnight tonight as the boundary layer stabilizes via nocturnal cooling. After highs in the 70`s to near 80F late this afternoon, lows should reach mainly the upper 40`s to upper 50`s around daybreak Saturday courtesy of partial clearing, weak or calm surface winds, and a cooler/drier air mass associated with the building surface ridge. The partial clearing, weak or calm surface winds, and lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall should yield patchy steam and radiation fog along and near the river and lake valleys east of Lake Ontario, in the Finger Lakes, and in the Western Southern Tier around daybreak. Current odds continue to favor fair weather this Saturday through Labor Day as the surface ridge settles S`ward and over our region, and the ridge aloft builds from the north-central United States. However, isolated rain showers may impact the Eastern Lake Ontario Region at times on Saturday and Sunday as shortwave troughs embedded in the NW`erly flow aloft impact that part of our CWA. Near-average to slightly below-average daily high and low temperatures are expected through Labor Day as the aforementioned ridge is accompanied by a cooler and drier air mass. Mainly clear sky, weak or calm surface winds, and sufficient low-level moisture should yield patchy steam and radiation fog in/near the river and lake valleys east of Lake Ontario, in the Finger Lakes, and in the Western Southern Tier around daybreak on Sunday and Labor Day, respectively. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front resides near the NY/PA border this evening. Multiple shortwave troughs continue to move through northwest flow aloft and widely scattered showers remain possible across far western NY as well as the North Country this evening. Showers are expected to remain south of KBUF and KROC and east of KART. Drier weather is expected to move into the region late tonight. Partial clearing and calm winds will support patchy fog in valley locations overnight. MVFR/IFR conditions are likely at KJHW, with lower confidence at remaining TAF sites. A northerly flow is expected across the region Saturday. Mostly dry weather is expected, however increasing moisture ahead of a trough will support periods of MVFR ceilings at KART. Some hi-res guidance also shows a few showers are possible across the North Country late morning through afternoon. Further west, dry weather and VFR conditions are expected. Outlook... Saturday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. River valley fog with local IFR each late night and early morning across the Southern Tier. Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected through this Tuesday for eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. A ridge builds from northern ON and vicinity through Labor Day and will be accompanied by variable winds. That ridge should exit S`ward Monday night and be followed by a cold front sweeping S`ward across the lakes. Variable winds ahead of the front should become mainly NE`erly to E`erly behind the front. Mainly NE`erly to SE`erly winds should persist on Tuesday as another ridge builds from near James Bay. The ridge should exit SE`ward this Wednesday and allow a warm front to sweep NE`ward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The warm front passage is expected to cause SE`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to SW`erly and freshen to around 15 to 25 knots. Waves should build to as large as 4 to 7 feet. These forecast conditions may prompt the eventual issuance of a Small Craft Advisory. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka AVIATION...HSK MARINE...Jaszka