433
FXUS61 KBUF 221020
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
620 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much cooler today, with scattered showers ahead of a gradual warm
up through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Much cooler today, with scattered showers ahead of a
gradual warm up through the remainder of the week.

A strong cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes region
this morning. Elevated instability and deep moisture will support
showers and a few thunderstorms along the front. Cold air advection
within a westerly flow will bring an abrupt airmass change to the
region causing 850mb temperatures will fall to +6C by this afternoon
and limit high temperatures to the 60s to low 70s. Based on past
soundings at KBUF, +6C at 850mb is below the 10th percentile and
near the daily min for this time of year. Steepening low level lapse
rates under an upper level trough will support widely scattered
showers with lake enhancement focusing showers and lake clouds east-
southeast of the Lakes today.

High pressure will build in tonight and reside across the region
through Friday bringing dry weather and a gradual warming trend
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A much cooler airmass will filter into the region today. A mix
of low end VFR and MVFR ceilings are expected today. Scattered
showers will focus southeast of the Lakes through this evening.
High pressure moves into the region tonight and widespread VFR
is expected. The only exception is the potential for patchy fog
late tonight, however confidence is low.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance for showers/thunderstorms in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
West-northwest winds will increase on the Lakes behind a cold front
this morning. Small Craft conditions are expected on Lake Ontario
through tonight. Winds and waves are weakening on Lake Erie this
morning, however a moderate chop will continue on the waters
today. A cool airmass within westerly flow will support
scattered showers with a slight chance of waterspouts on the
eastern end of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today.

Light winds and calm waters are expected Thursday through Saturday
as high pressure builds into the lower Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK