867
FXUS61 KBUF 290622
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
222 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing cold front will continue to cross western and and north
central New York early this morning, supporting a line of scattered
showers. In the wake of the front, a few widely scattered lake
effect rain showers will linger today southeast of the Lakes,
especially Lake Ontario. Additionally, the coolest airmass since the
start of summer will arrive today and support temperatures to be
well below average. Then for the holiday weekend, expect dry weather
and a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid-level low over southern Quebec will continue to become closed
off this morning, supporting a cold front and associated line of
scattered rain showers from Chautauqua to Jefferson counties early
this morning. This front and associated showers will continue to
pass from west to east within the next few hours.

In the wake of the front this morning, the coolest airmass since the
start of summer will arrive into the lower Great Lakes, supporting a
few lake enhanced/upslope rain showers southeast of both Lakes
(mainly Lake Ontario) today. However, showers won`t last long this
morning and should end by midday as the airmass will dry out quickly.
Heading into this evening, a spoke of vorticity will orbit around
the aforementioned mid-level closed low and clip the eastern Lake
Ontario region late this afternoon and evening. Overall this will
spark a few more scattered showers over and east/southeast of Lake
Ontario.

Otherwise, with the coolest airmass in place overhead highs today
will warm into the low to mid 60s across much of the area, but
struggle climb out of the 50s across the higher terrain. Lows
tonight will tumble well into the 40s inland from the lakeshores,
with some upper 30s possible across the Southern Tier valleys and
Tug Hill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly dry conditions are expected for the entire period as high
pressure and a ridge build into the region from the west, pushing a
vertically stacked system (which is currently over the area now)
further to the east. Guidance is trending toward a scenario for
Monday where a cut-off mid-level low develops over or just south of
the area. This will occur as the incoming ridge cuts off the
departing negatively tilted trough over the weekend. If this
scenario does develop, then there will be an increased chance for
some showers on Monday afternoon, which some guidance is suggesting.

Day-to-day warming is expected for the holiday weekend as we reach
the end of meteorological summer. Temperatures for Saturday, while
comfortable will remain below normal for the entire area.
Temperatures on Sunday will be near normal with most of the area in
the low to mid 70s, and by Monday the entire area is expected to
warm to near to a few degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly dry weather is expected through Wednesday afternoon as the
mid-level cut-off low opens into an approaching trough from the
northwest over Canada. A few showers to start on Tuesday may be
possible until the low weakens and opens, but with a sfc high over
and just to the east, any showers should be limited.

As the approaching trough tracks closer to the area, digging
southeast out of Canada and amplifying in the process, showers will
approach the area along the systems warm and cold fronts starting
Wednesday evening. Showers will expand in spatial coverage just west
of the area as a weak southern stream sfc low and influx of Gulf
moisture surges north. Showers ahead of and along the cold front
will continue for the entire day on Thursday before the front passes
later in the evening on Thursday.

Above normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday in the low 70s
to low 80s will cool to near and below normal for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A line of scattered showers associated with a passing cold front
lies from eastern Chautauqua county to Jefferson county. North of
the front, mainly VFR conditions persist, however CIGS south of the
front have deteriorated to MVFR across the higher elevations and IFR
across the higher terrain. MVFR CIGS (and higher terrain IFR) this
morning will gradually improve to mainly VFR by the afternoon.

A few lake enhanced showers may spark up east and southeast of Lake
Ontario tonight supporting a return of MVFR CIGS. Otherwise with
high pressure building in across western New York will support VFR
conditions elsewhere.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river valley fog
each late night and morning across the Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
Breezy north-northwesterly winds on Lakes Erie and Ontario have
developed in the wake of a passing cold front this morning
supporting Small Craft Advisory conditions through daybreak.

Winds will gradually weaken but remain on the elevated side today
and Saturday, especially on Lake Ontario resulting in a moderate
chop.

Additionally, waterspouts will be possible on Lake Ontario this
morning and then again tonight with passing showers on the eastern
end of Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     NYZ003>007-010-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ