555
FXUS61 KBUF 161857
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
257 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Summertime heat and humidity expected through Thursday, along
with a few rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with
the greatest coverage of storms expected through this evening
from the Southern Tier into the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes.
While a few storms may produce localized gusty winds and heavy
rainfall, other areas may receive little or no rain. Following
the passage of a cold front, drier and cooler air will then
overspread our region for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Heat Advisory remains in place through 8 pm for from northern
portions of the Niagara Frontier eastward across the Finger
Lakes and lower elevations of north central New York for heat
index values reaching the mid to upper 90s.

Convection developing along Lake Erie lake breeze this afternoon
from the Southern Tier northeastward across interior portions of the
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes. Given PWATs near 2 inches and
only weak shear in place, the main threat from any storms will
be for localized heavy rainfall/flooding, with a secondary risk
for isolated strong gusty winds attendant to any stronger
convective cores.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should increase across western
New York into this evening as a shortwave trough moves into the
region. This wave will eject northeastward into the Upper Saint
Lawrence Valley, bringing a period of scattered to numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms to the eastern half of the
area, while he convection taking on a diminishing trend farther
west. The threat for localized heavy rainfall/flooding will
continue. Otherwise it will be another warm and humid night,
with lows ranging from the mid/upper 60s across the interior to
the lower 70s across the lake plains.

Cold front advances into the region Thursday. Another round
convection expected, primarily for the eastern half of the area.
Main threat looks to be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall in a very moist environment ahead of the front. Front
shifts southeast of the area Thursday night, lessening chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A large area of Canadian sourced high pressure builds in behind the
cold front bringing a much cooler and drier change to our airmass on
Friday, with 850mb temps briefly falling to around +10C. Afternoon
highs topping out in the 70s, surface dew points solidly in the 50s,
and a light northerly breeze will make for a pleasantly refreshing
end to the work week. High pressure slides east right over the area
Friday night. Mainly cloud-free skies and light winds, along with a
less humid airmass in place will allow for a very comfortable night
with lows generally in the 50s. Upper 40s possible across the Tug
Hill/western Dacks and closer to 60F along the lakeshores.

High pressure slides east of the area on Saturday, making way for a
warm front over the Ohio Valley associated with an area of low
pressure located over the mid/upper Mississippi Valley to approach
from the southwest, bringing increasing chances for a few showers
and storms Saturday afternoon, mainly from the Finger Lakes region
westward. Weak southerly return flow on the back side of the high
will boost temps and humidity levels some, however conditions will
remain very tolerable for being just about to the climatologically
warmest time of the year with highs ranging from the upper 70s to
lower/mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure and associated warm front quickly scoot east, crossing
the Lower Great Lakes Saturday night, then into New England by
Sunday. Increasing lift and moisture with these features will bring
areawide high Chc to Lkly PoPs for some showers and a few storms
Saturday night. Chances for a few showers/storms will linger into
Sunday as the lagging mid level trough passes across the area.
However, a general west to east drying trend is expected through the
afternoon.

Next area of Canadian sourced high pressure builds in Sunday night
bringing dry weather along with another batch of refreshingly cooler
and less humid conditions to start the new work week. High pressure
slides east of the area on Tuesday, but should keep dry weather
intact through the bulk of the day. Another warm front
approaches/moves into the area toward mid week, bringing the next
threat for unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A shortwave making its way northeast from the Ohio Valley will
combine with diurnal heating of our very warm/increasingly humid
airmass to generate some scattered showers and thunderstorms south
of Lake Ontario through early this evening, with the greatest
coverage likely found from the Southern Tier northeastward
across portions of the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes, along and
to the lee of a developing lake breeze boundary off Lake Erie.
KJHW and KROC appear to have the greatest chance of convection
and any associated brief/localized restrictions. Outside of the
storms, flight conditions will be predominantly VFR.

Tonight the shortwave will eject northeastward to the Upper Saint
Lawrence Valley...and in the process will bring a period of
scattered to potentially briefly more numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms to the eastern half of the area...with localized/brief
reductions again possible with these. Meanwhile further west...the
pcpn should generally tend to wane over time with increasing
subsidence/drying aloft in the wake of the shortwave. Otherwise
initially largely VFR flight conditions should tend to give way to a
mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings across the Southern Tier...with patchier
MVFR ceilings becoming possible elsewhere overnight.

Outlook...

Thursday...Localized/brief restrictions with mainly scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Localized IFR possible in fog
each late night and early morning.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms and
associated brief restrictions.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light to modest winds (at or below 10 knots) will prevail
through tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will also develop, with
locally higher winds and waves possible near any storms.

A cold front will approach the area Thursday, then will cross Lakes
Erie and Ontario Thursday night and early Friday. Southwest winds
will increase markedly ahead of the cold front Thursday, then will
become northwest following the passage of the front Thursday night
and Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely on both lakes
Thursday through Thursday night...with calmer conditions then
returning on Friday as high pressure builds across the region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>007-013-
     014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JJR/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR/TMA