193
FXUS61 KBUF 280608
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
208 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few lingering showers today.

2) Warming trend mid-week ahead of the next rain shower bearing cold
front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A few lingering showers today.

Current satellite imagery displays a mature, anomalously strong low
pressure system centered over the southern Jersey shore. This low
will continue to fill as it drifts eastward today. A few spotty
light showers or some drizzle at times will remain across the
region this morning, perhaps lasting into this afternoon across
the North Country. A northerly flow and lingering low level
moisture will maintain a blanket of clouds through tonight, with
perhaps some sunshine emerging Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend mid-week ahead of the next rain shower
bearing cold front.

Our wind flow will become southerly by Wednesday of this week,
allowing a warm autumn airmass to push into our region. In
conjunction with a ridge aloft, and 850 hPa temperatures rising into
the upper teens, surface high temperatures will become some 10
degrees or more above normal, with Thursday the likely warmest day
this week. Models have slowed a bit with the approach of the next
cold front with the suite of ensembles (ENS, GEFS, and GEPS) now
focusing highest chances for measurable rainfall now Thursday night.
This rainfall is also expected to be light, with chances for over a
tenth of an inch of rain in a 6-hour window generally less than 25
percent.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will continue to spin along the east coast and
gradually weaken today. Northerly flow and high low level moisture
will result in widespread IFR to lower end MVFR CIGS through
this morning. MVFR/IFR VSBYs in fog are also likely across WNY
early this morning. A few spotty light showers or drizzle will
continue this morning. Expect gradual improvement through the
day with lower elevations becoming mainly VFR this afternoon,
with MVFR across higher elevations.

Outlook...

Tonight...Areas of MVFR/IFR in low stratus and patchy fog. IFR
favored mainly across higher terrain.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly dry weather. Improvement to VFR
Tuesday, with VFR then prevailing afterward.

Friday...VFR to MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A freshening north-northeasterly flow will continue early this
morning as anomalously strong low pressure along the east coast
makes its closest approach to our region. This will bring solid
Small Craft Advisory conditions to the nearshore waters from
the Niagara River to the Saint Lawrence River, while conditions
remain a little below advisory levels elsewhere. The filling low
will allow for northeast winds to relax toward sunrise, with
small craft advisory conditions ending.

Winds and waves will continue to subside through the day today
as low pressure moves away from the region and high pressure
takes back control. Winds will shift out of the south by midweek
with speeds generally less than 15 knots.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ002>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA