710
FXUS61 KBUF 010031
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
831 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of a few inland widely scattered showers/isolated storms
Tuesday afternoon, expect an extended period of dry weather and
seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the Labor Day holiday
weekend through the first half of the work week with surface high
pressure dominating our weather. Cool and comfortable nights will
give way to mostly sunny and warm afternoons. The next chance of
rain will arrive in the later half of the work week with an eventual
cold frontal passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WV imagery highlights a dry airmass overhead as surface high
pressure remains positioned over much of the Great Lakes region.
With that in mind, expect mainly clear skies tonight, with just some
typical Southern Tier valley fog developing late tonight into the
first part of Monday morning. Overnight temperatures will not be as
cool as the past few nights, however with a dry air mass in place
and 850mb temps around 10 degC, along with efficient radiational
cooling conditions...expect lows to drop back to around 50 and into
the 40s across the higher terrain.

Dry weather will continue into Labor Day as surface high
pressure remains over the area, but begins to slide to our east
over the northeast CONUS. The gradual day to day warmup will
continue as afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s for
most. Dry weather persists Monday night, with overnight lows
mainly low to mid 50s and some mid and upper 40s for the higher
terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday high pressure draped from the mid-Atlantic states to New
England will only slowly drift to the east coast Meanwhile broad/
weak upper level troughing will remain in place aloft...with its
axis draped across central New York. Along and especially to the
east of this axis...the combination of somewhat better moisture and
diurnal heating could potentially lead to the development of some
isolated to widely scattered convection Tuesday afternoon. For our
area the best chances of this will be found across the North
Country...though it should be noted that some of the shorter-term
guidance continues to expand this potential a bit further westward.
Any convection that forms should then die out fairly quickly with
the loss of heating Tuesday evening...with fair dry weather
otherwise anticipated through Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Wednesday night the surface high will drift out into
the western Atlantic. Meanwhile aloft the initial upper trough will
eject out across Quebec...while a second and much deeper trough digs
from the Canadian Prairies to the Upper Great Lakes...with its
attendant surface low pushing its trailing cold front into the
central Great Lakes by the end of the period. The guidance suite
continues to slow the progression of this next system such that our
area will likely remain more under the influence of ridging and
therefore largely dry through most if not all of Wednesday night...
with just a lower-end chance of showers reaching far WNY late in the
period.

Otherwise...gradual warm advection/airmass modification will allow
temperatures to climb back to right around or a little above normal
by midweek...with an increasing southerly downslope flow out ahead
of the latter system then ensuring a mild to moderately warm
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday through Saturday deepening upper-level troughing will once
again overspread the Great Lakes and Northeast...with at least some
semblance of this then remaining across our region through Sunday.
Meanwhile at the surface...its attendant/elongated surface low and
at least one cold front will make their way east and across our
region...with forcing and moisture return along/ahead of these still
looking sufficient for another round of fairly widespread showers...
and perhaps a couple embedded thunderstorms depending upon its
timing.

Speaking of which...the various guidance packages continue to
exhibit a fair amount of spread with respect to the timing of this
next system...with this likely to be a function of just how much
phasing occurs with a possible southern stream trough/surface wave.
This results in an envelope of possibilities (albeit somewhat
narrower than seen yesterday) ranging from Thursday/ Thursday night
on the fast end to Friday/Friday night on the slow end...with the
consensus currently lying somewhere in the later Thursday/Thursday
night time frame. Have continued to place the highest PoPs
(categorical) in the latter with this package.

In the wake of the cold front...the arrival of a much cooler airmass
and general cyclonic flow will eventually result in the potential
for some more lake effect rain showers downwind of the lakes. The
exact timing of these remains in question due to lingering
uncertainty in the timing of the main cold front and the potential
for a period of low-level ridging/drying aloft in its wake...though
in general the best chances of this look to come Friday night into
Saturday...with the activity then slowly fading Saturday night/
Sunday as ridging and drier air arrive at the lower levels.

What is much more certain is that the gradual warming trend from
earlier in the week will be brought to an abrupt halt by the passage
of this system...with the much cooler airmass in its wake driving
temps back to notably below normal levels by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected tonight under mostly clear skies
across western and north-central NY. Only potential restriction will
be our typical Southern Tier valley fog developing once again late
tonight and persisting until a couple hours after sunrise. This will
bring the potential for a brief period of localized IFR VSBY through
mid-morning, possibly impacting KJHW as well.

Other than the localized Southern Tier valley fog for to start the
day, widespread VFR conditions will continue through the day Monday
as high pressure remains in control. Similar to Sunday, some fair
weather diurnal cu will develop inland from the Lakes for the second
half of the day, while mid and upper level clouds increase across
the eastern half of the forecast area associated with a weak upper
low approaching from the south. Winds remain light through the
period.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in river
valley fog each late night and morning across the Southern Tier.
Chance of a few widely scattered showers/storms Tuesday afternoon
inland from the Lakes.

Thursday...MVFR with rain showers and gusty winds along a cold
frontal passage.

Friday...Mainly VFR with lingering rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the lower Great Lakes will dominate for the
remainder of the holiday weekend through mid-week with mainly light
winds and flat wave action.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/JM
NEAR TERM...Brothers/JM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Brothers/EAJ/JM