811
FXUS61 KBUF 140918
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
518 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather will slowly return today behind the cold front but a
few showers or a thunderstorm will still be possible. Dry Tuesday
but heat and humidity will begin to return as we head into the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some stratus and areas of fog will be found across the area this
morning, which will begin to dissipate after sunrise.

The cold front slowly exits off to our east and southeast
today, followed by the trough axis moving through region. That
said...lingering moisture and building instability may support some
showers or an isolated thunderstorm. This will especially be the
case along convergence boundaries found along the lake plains south
of Lake Ontario, and also far interior sections of the S. Tier into
the Finger Lakes region. We should see lower humidity levels today,
along with somewhat cooler mercury readings with highs in the low to
mid 80s.

Weak surface based ridging builds into the region tonight with dry
weather lasting through Tuesday. Heat and humidity will also begin
to ramp back up on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, a few
spots may break the 90F mark across the Genesee Valley and Lake
Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies Tuesday
night. The trough will move east across the Northern Plains
Wednesday through Wednesday night before merging with a low
amplitude trough over southern Canada Thursday. An upper level ridge
will build across the eastern seaboard and southwest flow will
advect warmth and moisture into the eastern Great Lakes region.
Initially, dry weather will continue across the forecast area
Tuesday night. A weak wave will move across the Ohio Valley
Wednesday and ascent and moisture will move into the forecast area.
Showers and a few storms are possible with the greatest chance
during peak heating across the western Southern Tier into the Finger
Lakes region. Hot and humid weather is anticipated Wednesday with
heat indices 95-100F across the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and
Finger Lakes region. Cloud cover may suppress heating, however there
is medium confidence that heat indices will be reached.

A cold front with weak waves along it will approach the region from
the northwest Wednesday night through Thursday night. Timing of
these features is uncertain, however showers and a few storms will
be possible given the soupy, warm airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model consensus shows the cold front moving through the region
Friday, which will give relief to the warm and humid weather.
Showers and a few thunderstorms, potentially strong are possible
ahead of the front Friday.

An area of high pressure is forecast to move across the Great Lakes
region Saturday, before moving off the east coast Sunday. Models
have been trending drier Saturday. Troughing moves back into the
region Sunday with the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Stratus and fog possible this morning, mainly across interior
areas of the Southern Tier (KJHW).

VFR flight conditions will be found across area terminals after
stratus and fog dissipate. Again, there will be some showers or a
thunderstorm possible today, which may impact KIAG to KROC and
across interior section of the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes
region.

Tonight...VFR will prevail at all area terminals but there will be
some limited fog across the Southern Tier. Low confidence of it
impacting KJHW at this time.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will slowly work through the region today, a few
showers or an isolated thunderstorm will still be possible.

Otherwise...light winds and minimal wave action on the lakes today
through midweek.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR