546
FXUS61 KBUF 040223
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1023 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary cold front will pass across the area through the
early overnight bringing seasonable conditions later tonight and
Friday. The upcoming weekend promises to be unsettled with
another soaking rain Saturday into at least Sunday morning. A
shot of cold air Monday night into Tuesday will likely bring
snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winds will veer northwest and continue to weaken behind a secondary
cold front that will move southeast across western and northcentral
NY late this evening into the early overnight, before stalling
out over the Mid Atlantic region later tonight. Only potential
for a couple scattered showers will be toward the NY/PA line as
a weak wave passes northeast along the aforementioned boundary
as it passes southward through Pennsylvania, with the northern
edge just grazing the western Southern Tier. Otherwise, high
pressure building east into the central Great Lakes will bring
dry weather elsewhere.

High pressure builds right over the lower Great Lakes providing dry
weather and light north to northwest winds. Any lingering cloud
cover to start off the day will clear from north to south through
the morning hours with a good deal of sunshine for the afternoon
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A wave of low pressure pushes up the Ohio River Valley and into
the eastern Great Lakes by Friday night and Saturday bringing a
slug of rain to the area.l A second wave of low pressure
arrives along the slow moving WSW-ENE boundary by Saturday night
with yet another wave of rain. 3 day rainfall ending Sunday
morning should be heaviest far southwest New York and lightest
in the Watertown area. 25th-75th percentile PQPF in Watertown
area is 0.75-1.50", and 1.75-2.50" around Jamestown. For Buffalo
the range is 1-2".

Significant cooling and drying starts on Sunday with 850 mb
temps falling to about -7C by evening and there is an outside
chance that the precipitation ends as a mix Sunday afternoon in
the southern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deep low with 500 mb center around 5200 meters crosses Michigan
Monday and New York on Tuesday, with strong surge of cold air
behind it in northwest flow regime. Dynamics are strong and
height falls of 150 meters or more are expected over western New
York by early Tuesday.

It will be cool and dry Sunday night, but a potent cold front
will cross area Monday with 850 mb temps plunging past -10C
Monday evening on their way to -14 to -16C by Tuesday morning.
Strong cold advection and lake enhanced snow showers are on tap
and the potential for a Huron to Erie snow band forming south of
Buffalo. For now we have likely snow showers but it bears
watching for potential accumulations.

Dramatic height rises, perhaps 150 to 200 meters, are on tap for
Wednesday. There after uncertainty increases quite a bit for
Thursday as timing on another trough is quite different amongst
the various global model systems.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected across western and northcentral NY
tonight. A second cold front passes through western and northcentral
NY tonight and eventually settles across the Mid Atlantic region.
Meanwhile, high pressure will build east into the central Great
Lakes overnight. Winds will veer generally northwest and weaken
behind the boundary. A weak wave will ride northeast along the
aforementioned boundary later tonight as it crosses Pennsylvania,
just grazing the western Southern Tier potentially bring a couple
light showers to this area (KJHW), with a period of low VFR CIGS
(3-5 kft) possible.

Widespread VFR flight conditions and light winds expected Friday as
high pressure builds over the lower Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Friday night...Mainly VFR early, deteriorating to MVFR/IFR overnight
with showers becoming widespread.
Saturday and Sunday...Restrictions likely in scattered to numerous
rain showers.
Monday...Restrictions possible in scattered rain/snow showers.
Tuesday...Restrictions from snow showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to strong southwest/west winds veering northwest and
weakening late this evening into the early overnight in the wake of
a cold front passing southeast across the lower Great Lakes region.
This will keep Small Craft Advisory conditions in place on both
lakes into the early overnight over eastern Lake Ontario.

Gentle to moderate breezes Friday morning will continue to weaken
during the afternoon, as surface high pressure will track just to
the north of Lake Ontario.

As an area of low pressure approaches and moves just south of the
Lower Great lakes late Friday night and Saturday morning, an
easterly flow will freshen over the region. This will keep the
highest wave action in Canadian waters until around midday Saturday
when winds backing to the south southwest will target the eastern
third of Lake Ontario with potential Small Craft Advisory conditions
Saturday afternoon through the first half of Saturday night. Winds
and waves remain elevated (especially Lake Ontario) Sunday, however
should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels to close out the
weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Craven/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Craven
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Craven/JM/RSH