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FXUS61 KBUF 071801
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
101 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing low pressure system will continue to bring light to
locally moderate snowfall to the region through the afternoon, which
will diminish through this evening and tonight. Colder air wrapping
in behind this sytem will make for a rather frigid but mostly dry
start to the workweek. Increasing temps will accompany increasing
winds and chances for snow and rain at times Tuesday into Wednesday.
Unsettled weather lingers Thursday through the end of the week with
persistent chances for snow, particularly east of the lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weak area of low pressure moving east across Lake Ontario this
afternoon will reach the Gulf of Maine this evening, then strengthen
slightly as it moves across Atlantic Canada tonight. Weak mid-level
height falls coupled with a thin plume of synoptic moisture and an
approaching cold frontal boundary will continue to produce light but
widespread snowfall across the eastern Great Lakes region. 850H
temps are cold enough out ahead of the front with the increasing
moisture such that some localized enhancement from the lakes is
likely east/northeast of the lakes. Overall coverage/intensity of
the snow should begin to wind down across WNY through the afternoon
hours as drier air begins to wrap back in behind the passing low. As
the flow becomes northwesterly and further cools with the front,
light lake enhanced/upslope snows or flurries may develop south of
the lakes through this evening. This activity may linger through
much of tonight across the southern Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes
region, and across the Tug/Western Dacks. DGZ moisture should be
sufficently depleted by this point such that additional amounts will
be very minor.

Forecasted snowfall amounts through this evening continue to be
highest east of Lake Ontario, particularly across the higher terrain
south and east of Watertown where an additional 3-4" may fall.
Surrounding areas may pick up another 2-3". Across WNY, totals will
overall be much lower, up to an inch or less for most places with 2-
3" possible across the higher terrain of Chautauqua, S. Erie, and N.
Cattataugus.

Expansive sfc high pressure building squarely over the Great Lakes
ahead of a mid-level ridge will bring mainly dry weather to the
forecast area Monday and Monday night. There may be a spot snow
shower near the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline Monday night as the
flow becomes southwesterly with the passing ridge. Otherwise, it
will be a cold start to the new workweek as 850H temps plummet to
either side of -17C behind the cold front. This will translate
to sfc high temps in the teens and low 20s Monday with single
digit lows in most areas Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A weakening area of low pressure will track well to the north
of the area on Tuesday. At the same time, a potent shortwave
trough and warm front extending southeast from the sfc low will
track across the region Tuesday afternoon/evening. This will
bring a swath of widespread snow showers to the region, starting
later Tuesday morning for the western zones, and by mid
afternoon for eastern zones. Lake enhanced snow will be possible
northeast of the lakes at the tale end of this system. Snowfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible with this system,
with some locally higher amounts for the Tug Hill area. Areas of
the Niagara Frontier may briefly mix with or change to rain on
Tuesday afternoon, resulting in lower snow amounts. Temperatures
on Tuesday rebound from Monday afternoon values, with highs
reaching the low to mid 30s for most areas, with some mid to
upper 20s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Gusty winds to around 35 mph are expected on Tuesday as a LLJ
nearing 50kts moves across the area south of Lake Ontario. While
winds with the LLJ are stronger, mixing these stronger winds to the
sfc doesn`t appear very favorable.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rather active/progressive pattern looks to continue through this
period with a veritable parade of shortwaves/attendant surface lows
continuing to cross our region...with Tuesday`s weak system quickly
being followed by another...stronger surface low Tuesday night and
Wednesday...with a couple more systems then following between Friday
and Saturday.

Diving more into the details...the snow showers from Tuesday`s
surface low/warm front will barely have a chance to exit our area
Tuesday evening...before more widespread pcpn associated with the
next surface low arrives for the second half of Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Operational runs of the GEM/GFS/ECWMF continue to
agree on the track of this next system and generally now take
it somewhere between a southern Georgian Bay-Ottawa Valley axis
and Lake Ontario...though it remains to be seen whether this
better consistency will last given both the still-somewhat
distant time frame and differences in track seen up through last
night. The exact track of the low will heavily influence just
how much of a warmup (and consequently the pcpn types) we`ll
see...as well as the potential for any stronger winds. A more
northern track would allow for a stronger warmup and more of a
changeover to plain rain for a time on Wednesday along with a
greater chance of stronger winds...while a more southerly track
would support colder temps/more snow and a lower wind potential.
For now have continued to lean toward recent
trends/continuity...which suggest snow Tuesday night changing to
a mix of mainly lower elevation rain and higher elevation
rain/snow during Wednesday.

In the wake of this system...a shot of colder air should then change
any lingering pcpn back to snow and bring at least some limited lake
effect snow potential to areas downwind of the lakes later Wednesday
night into Thursday. The next surface low then looks to pass by to
our south Friday while bringing the chance of a more general
snowfall...with even colder air and another weak system then
forecast to arrive for the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Variable flight conditions across the eastern Great Lakes region
this afternoon as a weak low pressure system moves east across Lake
Ontario and pushes a cold front southward. This system is bringing
light but widespread snowfall to the area with MVFR/IFR cigs and
vsbys. Embedded lake enhancement will cause localized LIFR or lower
vsbys east to northeast of the lakes this afternoon, especially off
Lake Ontario. This may impact KBUF through about 19z and KART
through 22z or 23z. Areas further inland from the lakes across the
Finger Lakes, Genesee Valley and Southern Tier may see more frequent
periods of VFR into this evening.

Winds will turn northwesterly behind the passing system later this
evening and tonight. VFR to MVFR lake clouds will likely develop
south of the lakes with a few light snow showers or flurries, though
overall coverage of snow should rapidly diminish. This activity may
persist through much of tonight between KROC and KFZY.

A more widespread improvement from MVFR/VFR to VFR with calming
winds is anticipated for Monday as high pressure builds over the
Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR to IFR with increasing chances for light snow,
possibly mixing with rain Tuesday night.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers. Breezy, with gusts
20-30kts in many areas. Gusts to 35kts possible at KBUF/KIAG.

Thursday...VFR, with MVFR/IFR in scattered to numerous snow showers.

Friday...MVFR/IFR east of the lakes with snow showers likely.
MVFR/VFR outside the main lake effect areas.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak passing low pressure system and subsequent cold frontal
passage will cause northwesterly winds to increase on the nearshore
waters this afternoon and remain elevated through tonight. Small
Craft Advisories will go into effect on both lakes and the lower
Niagara River as outlined below.

High pressure will build across the lakes Monday, then shift
southeast of the lakes Monday night. This will cause winds and
subsequent wave heights to diminish before turning offshore.

The offshore flow will increase and begin to turn southwesterly as
another weak system moves east of the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday,
which will then be followed by a more potent area of low pressure
and LLJ further south on Wednesday. This may bring low-end gales to
Lake Erie, with Wednesday being the more favorable setup between the
two days.

Westerly winds will subside below gales later Wednesday night into
Thursday, though remain elevated through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
         Monday for LOZ042>044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM EST
         Monday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP