Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
334 FXUS61 KBUF 200231 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 931 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fair weather and variable amounts of cloudiness will remain across our region through Thursday...before weak low pressure tracking across James Bay brings some light rain to our region late Thursday night and Friday. Progressively milder air out ahead of this system will give way to more seasonable temperatures later Friday and Friday night following the passage of its trailing cold front...with high pressure then building across our region this weekend and providing us with mainly dry weather and continued seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Over the past 2-3 hours a narrow swath of low stratus across the upper Saint Lawrence Valley has extended a bit further southwestward to the Watertown area...with surface obs/some webcams also suggesting that some embedded areas of fog are also found from the Watertown area northward across portions of Jefferson county. Expect this to linger roughly in place for at least another couple hours... before probably starting to thin out overnight as a very weak ESE (downslope) flow develops. Otherwise...surface high pressure will slide east across New York State and into western New England overnight while maintaining fair dry weather. At the same time...Weak warm air advection and a passing shortwave aloft will help to escort a swath of mid and high- level cloudiness across the area from west to east...with this generally helping to better limit radiational cooling compared to last night. Surface high pressure will then slip to the east during Thursday, with a light southerly flow in place across our region. With mid and upper level moisture temporarily thinning out following tonight`s shortwave and shot of warm advection...there should be a period of increased sunshine before the next system begins approaching later in the day. Otherwise our gradual warming trend will continue...with highs ranging from the upper 30s-mid 40s east of Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 40s in most other locations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A northern jet shortwave diving down a southern Hudson Bay closed low will swing a trough across southern Canada, clipping the Great Lakes region. A cold front, from an area of low pressure near southern Hudson Bay, will cross our region Friday afternoon and evening. Overall synoptic moisture is not great with this system, but this front will bring chances for rain showers, with the greatest chances east of Lake Ontario which will lie closer to the better lift associated with the trough to the north. While precipitation with the northern branch feature will taper off Friday night, a southern branch shortwave will bring another round of rain across the Ohio Valley Friday night and into Saturday. For now, this system appears to remain just to our south, but if models continue to trend northward with this feature...light rain will become possible for the southern portions of our region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will drop across our region Sunday and Monday with a period of mainly fair weather. There will be another shortwave passing across southern Canada Sunday night that may bring a little snow or rain to the North Country. The next region-wide system to impact us will arrive from the desert Southwest. A closed low will open up early in the week...reaching our region Tuesday and into Wednesday with mainly plain rain as daytime temperatures will run in the 40s...while overnight lows drop back into the mid to upper 30s. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A narrow swath of low stratus and embedded fog will continue to bring areas of IFR/LIFR from KART northeastward across portions of the North Country through about 05/06z...with this then expected to gradually break up through the balance of the night as a weak ESE/SE (downslope) flow develops. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as surface high pressure slowly drifts from our region out across New England. Outlook... Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday....Mainly VFR with a chance of a shower. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure passing across the Lower Great Lakes will maintain light winds and minimal waves tonight and Thursday. Winds will then gradually increase Thursday night as the pressure gradient begins to tighten between exiting high pressure to the east and a cold front approaching from the west. Winds will peak on Friday just ahead of the cold front...with the possibility for a period of small craft headlines across the central and eastern portions of Lake Ontario Friday through Friday evening. High pressure will then build across the Lower Great Lakes in the wake of the cold frontal passage...with no more than some light chop expected at times this weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR/Thomas NEAR TERM...JJR/Thomas SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...AR/JJR MARINE...JJR/Thomas