Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
010 FXUS61 KBUF 300709 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 309 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only minor changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above average temperatures through late week, with a warm front bringing the chance for some scattered light showers later tonight into Thursday, before a cold front generates a round of beneficial rain showers Thursday night into the day on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Above average temperatures through late week, with a warm front bringing the chance for some scattered light showers later tonight into Thursday, before a cold front generates a round of beneficial rain showers Thursday night into the day on Friday. Any lingering fog/low clouds will mix out this morning, with dry and seasonably warm weather today. A warm front will lift across western NY late tonight into Thursday morning, then into the North Country Thursday afternoon. Enhanced forcing on the nose of a 30-40 knot LLJ combined with increasing moisture advection will bring growing chances for some scattered showers during the second half of tonight into Thursday morning from the Finger Lakes westward, shifting northeast into the North Country by the midday/afternoon hours. Strong WAA pattern will limit mixing potential of the stronger winds off the deck, however at least partial mixing along with a tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front will elevate southwesterly flow. This will be especially true northeast of the Lakes, where winds could gust 25-30 mph, possibly 35 mph northeast of Lake Erie. A sharper trough will then dig across the upper Great Lakes forcing the aforementioned cold front southeast through western and northcentral NY late Thursday night into Friday morning. While PWAT values will be nearing the 100th percentile for this time of year, along with a stout 35-45 knot LLJ, showers will be mainly anafrontal and thus not be able to take advantage of the more plentiful moisture and much stronger forcing ahead of the front. While there will be the likelihood for a period of beneficial showers, the heavy rainfall/flooding threat will be near zero. Although some timing discrepancies remain, the main window for more persistent showers will be late Thursday night through midday/early afternoon Friday just behind the cold front, with dry weather and temperatures returning to near normal readings for the first half of the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lingering MVFR/low VFR stratus across the portions of the North Country and Southern Tier will continue to break up/exit our region through 07z. This being said...our clear/clearing skies coupled with light winds and the rather moist boundary layer will allow areas of fog to quickly develop overnight...particularly across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier (including KJHW)...Finger Lakes...and North Country. Some fog also appears likely to develop across the lower elevations from at least KART to KFZY...and may also become possible around KIAG/KROC later on tonight. Otherwise general VFR conditions are expected. Once we get into the daylight hours...any fog should largely dissipate by 13-14z with increasing daytime heating and mixing. This will allow for a return to VFR conditions areawide...albeit under increasing/gradually lowering high and mid-level clouds through the rest of the day. Cloud cover will then continue to thicken/lower through the VFR range from west to east tonight in advance of an approaching warm front. Later on in the night...the encroaching warm front may begin to generate some showers/possible MVFR across far western New York. Outlook... Thursday...A chance of showers/MVFR crossing the area from west to east in association with a passing warm front...otherwise VFR. Thursday night and Friday...Deterioration to MVFR/IFR with showers developing in association with a cold frontal passage...followed by some possible improvement later Friday across far WNY. Saturday...Mainly VFR. Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers/MVFR late in the day/Sunday evening. && .MARINE... Southerly breezes will be 10 knots or less today with waves mainly less than one foot. Pressure gradient will slowly tighten tonight through Thursday well ahead of an approaching cold front, with moderate to perhaps even fresh south-southwesterly breezes bringing near-SCA conditons on Thursday, with potential for some low-end SCA conditions on portions of the Lakes. Winds veer westerly and decrease to around 10-12 knots Thursday night into Friday morning, before veering northwesterly and increasing, bringing a period of near-SCA conditions from Hamlin Beach to near the Saint Lawrence River later Friday afternoon and Friday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...JJR MARINE...JM