001
FXUS61 KBUF 030014
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
814 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms possible through
mid evening, otherwise dry weather and warm conditions expected
through Wednesday. A cold front will then bring widespread showers
and thunderstorms Thursday, before turning cooler and quite breezy
Friday with unsettled weather continuing into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Diurnally driven scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms
will linger through mid evening or so, before waning with the loss
of daytime heating. These will be mainly confined to the interior
Southern Tier and Genesee Valley. Otherwise, the weak upper-level
low responsible for this activity will slowly drift from
southeastern Ontario northward into southern Quebec by late this
evening into the early overnight, before getting absorbed by a much
larger upper low over the southern Canadian Prairies diving
southeast into the upper Great Lakes region on Wednesday.

Following any lingering shower activity through mid evening, weak
surface high pressure will bring a return to dry weather tonight.
Lows will mainly be in the low to mid 50s, with some of the higher
terrain dropping back into the upper 40s.

Surface high pressure will drift east across New England Wednesday,
before settling off the New England coast Wednesday night. This will
keep dry weather intact through the remainder of the period,
although a few showers ahead of an approaching cold front off to
the west may sneak into far western toward daybreak on Thursday.

Wednesday will be the warmest day of the next seven, with mid to
upper 70s area wide, and even some low 80s across the traditionally
warmest spots. A strengthening southerly flow and increasing cloud
cover ahead of the approaching cold front will keep Wednesday
night`s lows on the milder side with mainly mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Headed into Thursday, an anomalous sub-5400 m upper level low will
position itself over the upper Great Lakes and northern Ontario. As
the surface low begins to occlude, a cold front with the chance of
rain showers and gusty winds through early afternoon across western
NY and into the late afternoon and evening for north-central NY. A
secondary, potent shortwave will begin to round the base of the
trough Thursday night bringing strong southwest winds Friday across
Lake Erie into the Niagara Frontier as well as another round of
showers and storms Friday night.

Showers and Thunderstorms: Periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds
look to be the main hazards with these storms Thursday. A strong
flow pattern will be present with fairly moist vertical profiles
that may support vertical momentum transfer to the surface. The
overall environment will be less impressive with MLCAPE around 500
J/kg and meager mid-level lapse rates around 5-6 C/km. With a
progressive front and latest FFG from the local RFCs being high with
dry soils, flooding is not anticipated, but the potential for
multiple rounds of storms will need to be monitored with any pre-
frontal convection as well as storms closer to the frontal forcing.
Latest NBM probability of exceeding 0.5" of precipitation remains
high around 50-75%, but probabilities drastically drop off when
looking at a threshold of 1.0" across western NY. However. portions
of the Tug Hill and eastward show the greatest potential for
exceeding 1.0" of precipitation.

Gusty Winds: Ahead of Thursday`s cold front, southerly flow aloft
with tightening gradients will lead to gusty winds across much of
western NY. The greater concern looks to be with the secondary
shortwave passing through Friday with southwest winds extending up
Lake Erie into the Niagara Frontier. Latest NAEFS and EC guidance
shows wind speeds aloft exceeding the climatological 98th percentile
value for early September exceeding 50 kt. Deterministic EC and GFS
from the latest run shows a resultant 993 mb deepening over Lake
Huron as the shortwave passes through which would be suggestive of a
potential advisory level event across the area. Ensemble members are
still a little mixed with magnitude of the low and exact position as
it crosses through the central Great Lakes. While winds aloft have
been trending upward, one thing to consider is the potential for a
more westward track as the shortwave rounds the base of the trough
lifting farther north into Canada that may spare portions of the CWA
for seeing these stronger winds Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Large scale troughing will continue across the Great Lakes region
and northward as a surface low looks to be positioned east of James
Bay. Uncertainties remain with the low progression eastward with
Friday`s embedded shortwave and transition from the occluded low.
Additional showers will be located along the associated cold front
Saturday extending from northern NY southwest through the Finger
Lakes region. Lake enhanced showers will also be possible off Lakes
Erie and Ontario in the post-frontal flow with shallow ELs, but
still moist boundary layer through early Sunday. Height rises are
expected headed into Monday as high pressure and drier weather
arrive to start next week, but any warm up will be gradual and short-
lived as the overall troughing pattern will remain across the
northeast US.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Brief periods of very localized IFR VSBY possible through mid
evening or so within any heavier shower or storm that lingers across
the interior Southern Tier and Genesee Valley. VFR elsewhere.

Shower potential ends by mid evening or so with mainly VFR expected
tonight. Only exception will again be areas of typical Southern Tier
valley fog late tonight into the start of Wednesday morning,
bringing localized areas of IFR, however is not expected to directly
impact KJHW. High pressure drifts slowly east into New England on
Wednesday, but will keep widespread VFR flight conditions intact
through the day.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with showers and thunderstorms. Gusty winds also
possible with the cold front.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with lingering rain showers and
gusty winds.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Spotty lake induced showers east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal waves are expected through Wednesday as high
pressure drifts east and off the New England coastline.

A cold front will then cross the area between Thursday and Thursday
night...with increasing southerlies to southwesterlies expected out
ahead of the front later Wednesday night and Thursday...and fairly
brisk southwesterlies to westerlies following in its` wake Friday
into the weekend. Eastern portions of Lake Erie and western Lake
Ontario could see conditions reach low-end SCA criteria for a time
later Wednesday night into Thursday...with more widespread advisory-
level conditions then appearing more likely Friday into Saturday,
possibly lingering into Sunday on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...Brothers
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...AR/JM