980
FXUS61 KBUF 190726
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
326 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will organize as it lifts across the central Great
Lakes overnight and into southern Quebec on Thursday. In the
process...it will finish pushing its warm front across our region
tonight...then will sweep its trailing cold front across our region
Thursday. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms to accompany
this system overnight and Thursday...with gusty winds also
developing during Thursday along and following the passage of the
cold front. More comfortable conditions will then settle into the
region for Thursday night and Friday...before heat and humidity
build this weekend through the start of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of late evening...the line of convection to our west (attendant
to a shortwave and the warm front attendant to low pressure
developing into the central Great Lakes) continues to make steady
northeastward progress...with the leading edge now across central
Lake Erie and northeastern Ohio. This line did produce a wind gust
to 49 knots at KBKL (just northeast of Cleveland) a little before
930 pm...however it will be pushing northeast into the progressively
less unstable environment over our area and should therefore tend to
weaken over time as the shorter-term guidance continues to suggest.
This being said... extrapolation still would bring this line into
Chautauqua county between 03z and 04z and then across portions of
the Niagara Frontier within the following couple of hours...and
given that it is still holding together fairly well have made some
adjustments to the very near term grids to account for all this.
Elsewhere leftover showers across the Finger Lakes and central NY
will continue to gradually wind down through the early overnight
hours...with the warm and humid conditions supporting lows mostly
between 65 and 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
In the wake of an exiting mid-level trough, heights will begin to
rise across the central United States. However, within the building
ridge, a few shortwave disturbances will ripple through the mid-
level flow across the Great Lakes. The first and weaker of the
shortwave disturbances will support showers and thunderstorms to
develop under northwest flow aloft Friday afternoon and into the
evening.

The second and more potent shortwave disturbance will ride the top
of the building ridge across the eastern half of the CONUS Saturday
and into Sunday, supporting another round of showers and
thunderstorms to pass across southern Canada and northern portions
of the forecast area, especially across the eastern Lake Ontario
region Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...Dangerous Heat Sunday Through Tuesday...

As alluded to previously in the short term section, a stout mid-
level ridge at 500 mb will build towards 600dm Sunday through
Tuesday, while slowly advancing east towards the East Coast. This
being said, expect a period of hot, humid and dry weather for the
end of the weekend and into the start of the new work week.
Temperatures climbing up into the mid 80s to mid 90s from Sunday
through Tuesday, along with dewpoint temperatures well into the 60s
and low 70s will support dangerous heat indices. Heat index values
will climb up into the mid 90s and towards 100 degrees in a few
locations. The warmest day of the heat wave will be Monday.

The next system will approach the region from the northwest as the
next frontal boundary sags southeastward from Canada, late Tuesday
through Wednesday, introducing the potential for showers and
thunderstorms for mid-week. With the introduction of the frontal
boundary, temperatures will begin to cool, however continue to
remain above normal for lat June. How far south the boundary sags
south will greatly impact how much relief from the heat the region
will experience.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS a few showers will remain around the region in a
muggy atmosphere...that will bring ceiling heights down to MVFR at
times across the Lake Plain, and higher elevations IFR.

A deepening area of low pressure will pass by to our west and north
today and this feature, combined with a 40 to 45 knot LLJ and slight
cold air advection will yield winds gusting to around 40 knots for
the shoreline of Lake Erie, including KBUF/KIAG and possibly
reaching well inland across KROC. A weaker jet east of Lake Ontario
will hold the wind gusts here into the upper 20 to mid 30 knot
range.

Showers and thunderstorms will again blossom today and this evening
ahead of a cold front. The axis of deeper moisture today will lie
more across CNY, and with better daytime heating thunderstorms will
have the best chance for heavy rain and gusty winds for areas east
of Lake Ontario, including the KART airfield.

The cold front will exit to our east this evening, bringing and end
to the thunderstorms, but some stratiform rain may linger east of
Lake Ontario with MVFR ceiling heights through the evening hours.

Later in the night, with cooling temperatures, but still moist lower
levels some fog and low stratus is likely for form (LIFR) for the
Southern Tier. Otherwise for the lower elevation TAF sites improving
conditions with VFR becoming more predominate.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure tracking across the central Great Lakes overnight will
bring increasing southwesterly winds late tonight and into Thursday
morning. Sustained southwest winds well over 15 knots will bring
advisory-level conditions to the Lower Great Lakes Thursday.

Winds will then veer to westerly and then northwesterly later
Thursday and Thursday night behind the passage of this system`s cold
front, with speeds remaining high enough to support waves of 4 feet
or greater on Lake Ontario deep into Thursday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ001>003-010-011-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
         evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
         this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM
         EDT Friday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
         Friday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...Brothers/JJR
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...JJR/Thomas