475
FXUS61 KBUF 161051
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
651 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
today into tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible Monday.

2.) Dry weather likely Monday night and Tuesday.

3.) Another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms forecast for the midweek period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected today into tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible Monday.

A high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft continues to
exit E`ward this morning. In the wake of the ridge, cyclonic
W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs
impact Western and Central NY the rest of today through Monday.
At the surface, a primary low should wobble ENE`ward across
northern ON, James Bay, and northern QC today through early
Monday evening. Accordingly, a warm front should drift NE`ward
across our CWA late this morning through evening and usher-in a
warmer and more humid air mass originating over the Gulf. A cold
front should then sweep E`ward through our region tonight through
about midday Monday. Behind the cold front, a lake-aggregate trough
lingers over the eastern Great Lakes and vicinity, including our
CWA, as a ridge attempts to build from the Upper Midwest and
vicinity.

Fair weather is now expected to persist through daybreak in our
CWA. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
periods of heavy rainfall are expected late this morning through
tonight as weak to perhaps moderate CAPE, including elevated
CAPE, is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the warm front, low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the surface warm and cold fronts,
and as downshear gust fronts interact favorably with low-level
vertical wind shear amidst primarily moderate deep-layer bulk
shear. Cannot rule-out a severe storm or two capable of producing
damaging straight-line wind gusts this afternoon and early
evening, when diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer
amidst peeks of sunshine should yield appreciable boundary layer
CAPE and DCAPE near 500-700 J/kg per latest trends in higher-res
model soundings. Behind the cold front, isolated rain showers
should occur tonight into Monday since subtle shortwave troughs
and attendant surface trough axes will traverse Western and
Central NY generally from west to east. Low-level convergence
and moist ascent along the surface trough axes should release at
least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL. A few
thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and early evening,
when the same lifting mechanisms may release weak boundary layer
CAPE stemming from daytime warming. Showers and thunderstorms
on Monday should end by sunset, following the onset of boundary
layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling.

High temperatures should reach the mid 70`s to mid 80`s this
afternoon. The warmest highs are expected along the lake plains
and the middle and northern portions of the Genesee Valley. Lows
should reach mainly the upper 50`s to mid 60`s around daybreak
Monday. Late afternoon highs should reach the 70`s to lower 80`s
on Monday, behind the weak cold front.

Key Message 2...Dry weather likely Monday night and Tuesday.

High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft should build
from the western Great Lakes and vicinity Monday night through
Tuesday. Stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge is
expected to promote dry weather. Considerable clearing and weak
or calm surface winds accompanying the ridge should contribute
to lows reaching the 50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak Tuesday.
Steam fog should form in the river and lake valleys of the
Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario
Region during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning. Patchy
radiation fog should also form, especially inland from Lakes
Erie and Ontario, amidst lingering low-level moisture from the
expected rainfall. Fog will dissipate via the onset of diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer shortly after daybreak.
Highs are forecast to reach the 70`s to lower 80`s late Tuesday
afternoon.

Key Message 3...Another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms forecast for the midweek period.

The above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft exits E`ward
Tuesday night and allows a warm front to sweep N`ward through
Western and Central NY. Simultaneously, cyclonic W`erly flow
aloft becomes established over our area and embedded shortwave
disturbances traverse Western and Central NY. The cyclonic
W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should
continue to affect our area Wednesday through Wednesday night,
and a cold front should sweep E`ward through Western and
Central NY. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected after midnight Tuesday night through Wednesday night as
weak to perhaps moderate CAPE, included elevated CAPE, is
released by the following: moist isentropic ascent along the
upper-reaches of the warm front and ahead of shortwave trough
axes; low-level convergence and moist ascent along the surface
warm front, surface cold front, and surface trough axes
attendant to the shortwave troughs. Overnight lows should reach
mainly the mid 50`s to mid 60`s Tuesday night and be followed by
daytime highs in the 70`s on Wednesday. Overnight lows should
reach the upper 40`s to near 60F around daybreak Thursday as a
cooler air mass overspreads our region behind the cold front.
Latest trends in NWP model guidance suggest the cooler air mass
behind the cold front will be too dry to support a period of
lake-effect rain.

Fair weather is expected region-wide by this Thursday as a ridge
at the surface and aloft builds from the western Great Lakes
and vicinity, and is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence.
Highs should reach the 70`s in most of our CWA as a cooler air
mass lingers. However, highs may reach only the upper 60`s
along the higher hilltops of the Western Southern Tier and
higher points of the Tug Hill Plateau.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
W`erly to WNW`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect
Western and Central NY through 12Z/Mon. At the surface, a high
pressure ridge continues to exit E`ward and give way to troughing
across our area. A warm front should drift NE`ward across
Western and Central NY between ~12:30Z/Sun and ~02Z/Mon. A cold
front should enter Western NY from the west around 05Z/Mon and
near the eastern shore of Lake Ontario, KSYR, and KBGM by
12Z/Mon. Our regional surface winds will be near 5 to 10 knots
through the TAF period and are expected to trend E`erly to
SE`erly ahead of the warm front, SW`erly in the warm sector
(i.e. behind the warm front), and W`erly to NW`erly behind the
cold front.

Dry weather and VFR are likely this morning, although a few rain
showers with brief MVFR may impact the Western Southern Tier,
especially along/near the PA border. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through 12Z/Mon,
along and ahead of the surface fronts and ahead of the
disturbances aloft. Brief MVFR to LIFR are expected with showers
and thunderstorms. Some storms may produce brief/erratic
surface wind gusts up to 30 to 40 knots or so this afternoon and
early evening, especially in Western NY and the Finger Lakes.
Behind the surface cold front, widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings
and widespread mist with MVFR to IFR visibility are expected.

Outlook...

Monday...Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings likely, especially in
the morning. Isolated showers possible.

Monday Night through Tuesday...Dry weather and mainly VFR
expected. Overnight/early morning river valley fog with localized
MVFR to LIFR conditions possible across the Western Southern
Tier, Finger Lakes, and east of Lake Ontario.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Periodic showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions possible.

Thursday...Dry weather and VFR likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are
expected through this Thursday. A warm front should drift
NE`ward across eastern Lake Erie late this morning through
early afternoon and across Lake Ontario this evening. The warm
front passage will cause SE`erly winds to veer to SW`erly. A
cold front then sweeps eastward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario tonight and causes SW`erly winds to veer to NW`erly.

Behind the cold front, a trough lingers over the lakes on
Monday before a high pressure ridge builds from the Upper
Midwest and vicinity Monday night. Winds are expected to vary
between W`erly and N`erly. Note: periodic showers and
thunderstorms should impact Lakes Erie and Ontario this
afternoon through Monday. Showers and especially storms may
produce localized/brief strong winds and larger waves.

On Tuesday, the ridge axis should move E`ward across eastern
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and cause winds to back to SW`erly.
A cold front should sweep SE`ward across eastern Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario Wednesday through Wednesday night and cause SW`erly
winds to veer to NW`erly to N`erly. Behind the cold front, a
ridge should build from the western Great Lakes through Thursday
and be accompanied by mainly W`erly to N`erly winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka