270
FXUS61 KBUF 302224
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
624 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes with this issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through Saturday.

2) A warming trend is expected Sunday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonal and mostly dry weather is expected through
Saturday.

A surface high will build across the eastern Great Lakes tonight.
Cool northwest flow aloft will continue to support some lake effect
and upslope clouds, but dry weather is expected. Lows will drop back
into the 30s in most areas, with some 20s across the North Country.

High pressure will crest over the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, with
dry weather, a return to sunshine, and near average temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A warming trend is expected Sunday through early
next week.

Surface high pressure will move east of the region Saturday night. A
southerly flow will support warmer weather Sunday with highs back in
the low 60s. High pressure will move off the east coast early next
week, while the westward extent remains across the Northeast. This
will support a warm, and dry period through at least Tuesday.

A deep trough is expected to move from the Plains to the Mississippi
Valley by mid-week. There remains high uncertainty in the evolution
of a surface low and how quick moisture returns to the eastern Great
Lakes region. Chances for showers begin to increase Wednesday with
the potential for unsettled weather to continue through the end of
the work week. Above normal temperatures are expected mid to
late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cool northwest flow will continue to support areas of lake effect
and upslope clouds tonight. CIGS in most areas will stay VFR, with
some spotty MVFR across higher terrain. High pressure will build
east across the Great Lakes overnight, then settle overhead
Saturday. Subsidence and drying will bring an end to lake effect and
upslope clouds with VFR prevailing.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northwesterlies will continue to produce Small Craft
Advisory conditions in the nearshore zones from Hamlin Beach
eastward through the first half of tonight before winds quickly
diminish late.

Surface high pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes
Saturday, then drift slowly east towards the northern Mid Atlantic
states by Sunday. This will bring light winds and flat wave action
through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Rainfall amounts Thursday evening were 0.10" or less in most
areas, with a few spotty 0.25" amounts. Another extended period
of dry weather and warming temperatures is expected this weekend
through the first half of next week. This will continue to
result in very dry fine fuels and leaf litter.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
FIRE WEATHER...Hitchcock