172
FXUS61 KBUF 311745
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
145 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes with this issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and dry weather through tonight.

2) Well above normal temperatures are likely from Sunday
through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool and dry weather through tonight.

Surface high pressure will dominate across the region through
tonight. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s across
western NY and the upper 30s to low 40s across north-central NY this
evening. Overnight low temperatures will fall to the 30s, and the
upper 20s across the higher terrain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well above normal temperatures are likely from Sunday
through the end of the week.

The pattern becomes amplified across the CONUS with a deep trough
across the Plains and a ridge building across the east next week.
Surface high pressure will persist across the eastern seaboard and
maintain mostly dry weather through Wednesday. Warm air advection
will strengthen across the region through mid-week. A few showers
can`t be ruled out on the leading edge of the warm-air advection
Tuesday. The warmest days are expected to be Tuesday and Wednesday
with daytime highs in the mid 60s to low 70s on Tuesday, and the
upper 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday. This setup translates to an
unusual event for the region in early November according to the
ECMWF EFI. South winds will increase through mid-week. Gusty winds
are possible on Wednesday.

A narrow corridor of deep moisture ahead of the upper level trough
axis will slowly work it`s way across the region Wednesday night
through Thursday. A shortwave trough coupled with a cold front will
support unsettled weather across the region Thursday through Friday.
There remains high uncertainty in rainfall amounts late in the
week. Temperatuers will remain above normal through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will slide south and
east to the Mid-Atlantic through tonight. SCT-BKN030-040 this
afternoon will erode this evening leaving SCT-BKN250 through much of
tonight. Some southern tier valley fog is possible late tonight, but
increasing upper level cloud cover should keep coverage to a minimum.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, with late night/early morning
valley fog possible.

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible in scattered
rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge overhead drifts slowly east and southeast towards
the Mid-Atlantic states Sunday. This will bring light winds and flat
wave action through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another extended period of dry weather and warming temperatures
is expected beginning Sunday and lasting through the first half
of next week. This will continue to result in very dry fine
fuels and leaf litter.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...AR/HSK
FIRE WEATHER...AR