976
FXUS61 KBUF 121748
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
148 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
across western NY. A few storms may be severe with strong winds and
hail.

2) Mostly dry weather late this week with showers and thunderstorms
looking to return Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Message 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening across western NY. A few storms may be severe with
strong winds and hail.

Latest satellite and radar imagery showed widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing across the Niagara Frontier around
midday as well as across southwest ON ahead of enhanced northwest
flow moving into the region. Initial storms in Niagara Co quickly
dissipated over the lake modified air with southwest surface flow,
but additional storms have begun developing farther east along the
lake breeze boundary and subsequent outflows. Expecting an increase
in storm coverage through this afternoon, especially further
displaced from the lakes into the Finger Lakes region where
MLCAPE has grow 1000-1500 J/kg. Outside of shallow low-level
directional shear, hodographs are fairly unidirectional with
effective shear 35-40 kt. This will be supportive of organized
storm structures and splitting cells. Any discrete storms could
be capable of producing large hail (1-1.25 inch), but the messy
storm evolution will likely lead to strong winds and heavy
rainfall being the primary threat. PWATs are in the 1.3 to 1.5"
range, which is above-normal, but not excessively high. Looking
farther southwest into Chautauqua Co, considerable cloud cover
from upstream convection has overspread the western Southern
Tier. Additionally, forecast soundings suggest the area is
capped at the surface despite steep mid-level lapse rates near 7
degC/km. Any convection that develops mid-afternoon will likely
be elevated or delayed until this evening with additional
development in OH as the shortwave passes through.

Hi-res ensemble guidance (HREF/REFS) suggest storm potential will
continue into early this evening for the Niagara Frontier across to
the northern Finger Lakes region. The western Southern Tier may see
storms remain in the area through midnight. Lingering showers may
remain into early Thursday morning before turning mostly dry
throughout the remainder of the day as high pressure begins to build
into the upper Great Lakes.

Key Message 2...Mostly dry weather late this week with showers and
thunderstorms looking to return Sunday.

After mostly dry weather Friday and Saturday, a low pressure system
will track across northern Ontario early Sunday with a trailing cold
front that may bring the next round of showers and thunderstorms to
western and north-central NY. The timing of this low is still quite
uncertain owning to the ~50% PoPs lasting throughout much of the
day. While the severe convective environment appears better farther
south and west, latest model trends has begun to shift the axis of
greater instability north into the western Southern Tier.
Additionally, lingering upstream convection from Saturday night
across the Midwest will be another factor. Afterwards, high
pressure will build back into the Great Lakes with drier weather
for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak mid level shortwave passing through the northwest flow aloft
will interact with moderate instability and lake breeze boundaries
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
through early to mid evening. The best coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will be across Western NY and the Finger Lakes, with a
smaller secondary area crossing the Saint Lawrence Valley. Any
storms will be capable of brief/local IFR conditions, gusty winds,
and small hail. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR will prevail in most
areas with some MVFR CIGS across the higher terrain of the
western Southern Tier.

Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms in the early evening
will diminish and mostly end by late evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Overnight, areas of IFR in low stratus and fog will
develop across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, with some VLIFR
possible. Elsewhere, expect mainly VFR conditions for lower
elevations and east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday, a somewhat drier airmass will build into the eastern Great
Lakes and allow for mainly dry weather to prevail. A few scattered
showers and thunderstorms may develop across the Saint Lawrence
valley in the afternoon and early evening in closer proximity to a
deepening trough across Quebec. Areas of IFR in fog and low stratus
across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes will dissipate by mid to
late morning, with VFR elsewhere.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Local/brief
IFR possible in storms.

Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a few lingering scattered
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
An overall weak pressure gradient is expected to remain in place
through the remainder of the work week, with no more than mainly
light to gentle breezes expected, although a modest uptick in
northerly flow later Thursday night into Friday may bring some light
to moderate chop across Lake Ontario.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may
produce strong winds and locally higher waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Brothers/JM