Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
549 FXUS61 KBUF 012247 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 647 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with this forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather is expected to return this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather is expected to return this weekend. A large ridge will remain overhead through much of the work week maintaining warm and dry conditions. The ridge is expected to break down later in the week, allowing northern stream shortwave troughs to approach the Great Lakes region. By the weekend, a deep southerly flow will likely move into the Ohio Valley and the eastern Great Lakes region. While confidence is low regarding the timing of large scale forcing, daytime heating and increasing moisture will likely support showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. The chance for precipitation is higher inland from the Great Lakes. Ensemble Mean PWATS are forecast to be above 1.00", which is around the 75th percentile for early June. Any activity could produce heavy downpours. An upper level trough may set-up across the region into early next week and support continued chances for precipitation. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue to prevail through Tuesday and beyond. Strong high pressure surface and aloft over James Bay will gradually drift south towards the Great Lakes through Tuesday night. Mainly clear skies will prevail, with just Few/Sct diurnal cumulus with VFR bases each afternoon and some high/thin cirrus at times. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday...VFR. Friday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers. Saturday...Mainly VFR, with MVFR/IFR in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Heavy downpours are possible. && .MARINE... High pressure will settle across the eastern Great Lakes region through mid-week with light winds and gentle waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HSK AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...HSK