428
FXUS61 KBUF 172322
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
722 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers this evening across the North Country,
then areas of fog overnight.

2) Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
is forecast for the midweek period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Scattered showers this evening across the North
Country, then areas of fog overnight.

A cold front is moving southeast and away from most of the area
early this evening. A mesoscale circulation continues to move slowly
east/southeast across the northeast end of Lake Ontario, and will
support a few more showers east of Lake Ontario this evening before
dissipating by late evening. Elsewhere, mainly dry weather will
prevail through the evening hours with diurnal cumulus gradually
fading away with the loss of daytime heating.

Clearing and light winds accompanying the ridge should contribute to
areas of fog overnight tonight, especially in the river valleys of
the Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario
Region. Patchy radiation fog should also form during the same time
period, especially inland from Lakes Erie and Ontario, amidst
lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall.

Key Message 2...Another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms is forecast for the midweek period.

High pressure will drift east by Tuesday night, allowing a warm
front to push into western New York. Cyclonic flow aloft becomes
established over our area and with a few embedded shortwave
disturbances moving through the region as a cold front makes it way
across the region Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected after midnight Tuesday night through
Wednesday as weak to perhaps moderate instability develops within
the warm sector ahead of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A small scale circulation will continue to drift east/southeast
across the eastern Lake Ontario region and produce a few more
showers and local MVFR this evening, with some of this impacting the
KART vicinity. Otherwise, the rest of the area will see VFR with
diurnal cumulus gradually dissipating with the loss of daytime
heating.

Overnight, dry weather will prevail as high pressure builds into the
eastern Great Lakes. Light winds and partial clearing along with
residual low level moisture will promote areas of fog overnight
through Tuesday morning, with areas of MVFR/IFR VSBY. The fog may be
more widespread than just a typical river valley fog night, with
fairly widespread IFR VSBY possible across many areas inland from
the immediate Great Lakes shorelines from about 07Z through 12Z.

The fog will burn off by mid morning Tuesday, leaving VFR to prevail
as high pressure remains over the eastern Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Areas of MVFR/local IFR with
showers and a few scattered thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night through Friday...Dry weather and mainly VFR,
although localized fog with IFR VSBY in/near river/lake valleys is
possible around daybreak on Thursday and Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR with a few scattered showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
West-northwest winds at 15 knots or less behind the passage of a
cold front will continue into this evening before becoming light
overnight. High pressure building over the eastern Great lakes
Tuesday will allow for mainly onshore breezes to develop. Southwest
winds should freshen ahead of a cold front Wednesday, with mainly
west-northwest winds developing behind the front Wednesday night
through Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...TMA