540
FXUS61 KBUF 241737
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
137 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers east of Lake Ontario will end early this evening,
otherwise clearing skies and cooler conditions are expected tonight.
Warm and humid conditions will return Tuesday and especially
Wednesday when a pair of frontal passages will support showers
and potentially strong thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The center of a 998 mb low located along the Maine coast continuing
to support wrap around moisture, with a scattered coverage of
showers east of Lake Ontario this afternoon. This activity has
been trending downward and expect this activity to wind down
between 22Z and 00Z. Cloud cover and lacking instability should
limit any thunderstorm development across the North Country
this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will begin to build east into the lower Great
Lakes tonight. Clearing skies and light winds will support good
radiational cooling and support overnight low temperatures in the
50s, along with the potential for some Southern Tier valley fog
and perhaps some fog east of Lake Ontario where rain lingered
today.

Surface high pressure will slide across and then east of the region
Tuesday, with a southerly return flow developing. Some minor height
rises aloft within general flat ridging will bring about a warm
advective flow, sending temperatures back into the lower to mid
80s, although humidity levels should remain on the comfortable
side with dewpoints staying below 60F for the most part.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The brief cool down ends Tuesday with a return to summer warmth
and humidity. A warm front is advertised to work through the
region Tuesday afternoon and evening. While coverage will
`likely` be limited...we still can`t rule out a shower or
isolated thunderstorm. A better chance of showers and
thunderstorms looks to arrives Wednesday with the cold front.
Right now...guidance focuses storm activity well inland from the
lakes across the S. Tier, Finger Lakes region, and ENE into
North Central NY. Otherwise...highs both days will be found in
the 80s with dwpts climbing well into the 60s.

Behind the cold frontal passage Wednesday night a much cooler and
drier airmass will flood into the Lower Lakes by Thursday. Highs on
Thursday will only be in the upper 60s across the higher terrain to
low/mid 70s elsewhere.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure slides overhead Thursday night and then moves off to
our east on Friday. Return flow on the western peripheral of the
ridge will once again pump in a much warmer airmass as we head into
the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also
increase beginning Friday night with the warm front, and then again
with the cold front on Saturday. Highs Friday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s, then even warm Saturday with solid 80s to near 90F
in spots.

A cool down begins to take place behind the cold front Saturday
night but we still could see some showers on Sunday. Dry weather
returns areawide by Monday as an expansive surface high builds into
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The passage of the cold front by Wednesday night will again bring in
another much more refreshing airmass into western and north central
New York for the latter part of the work week. This should
result in dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs lower to
mid 70s Thursday, then as the airmass starts to modify with
surface high moving east of our area Friday will see high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dew points in the 50s
will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late June.

Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances will
return as we head into the weekend as the next frontal system
approaches from the west. Depending upon the timing of the frontal
passage Saturday should be the more uncomfortable of the two weekend
days with highs well into the 80s and higher humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Moisture wrapping around an eastern Maine low keeping some
scattered showers in across the eastern Lake Ontario region this
afternoon, but restrictions at KART look to have ended with
CIGS improving to VFR. Elsewhere SKC-SCT040 for all other
terminals this afternoon. Northwest winds at 10 to 15 knots will
diminish by late afternoon.

High pressure building in tonight with mainly SKC across the region.
Some patchy fog is possible in the Southern Tier valleys and east of
Lake Ontario. Restrictions are possible at both KJHW and KART after
06z.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories include all of the Lake Ontario nearshore
waters due to northwesterly flow through much of today. Winds and
waves will begin to subside this evening as high pressure moves into
the Ohio Valley today through Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ001>003-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...EAJ/TMA