076
FXUS61 KBUF 161821
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
221 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A frontal zone stalled just south of the area will bring another
period of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly late tonight
through the first half of Thursday.

2) A brief period of drier, cooler conditions is expected
Thursday night through Saturday morning.

3) Another period of unsettled weather develops late Saturday and
continues through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A frontal zone stalled just south of the area will
bring another period of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly
late tonight through the first half of Thursday.

An east-west oriented frontal zone will continue to sag slowly
southward towards the NY/PA border through this evening. Weak
convergence along the frontal zone will continue to produce a few
scattered showers or patchy drizzle through this evening, mainly
across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Overnight, a weak baroclinic wave will run east along the stalled
frontal zone, forcing the front to lift back north into southern
portions of Western and Central NY. The differential temperature
advection pattern forced by the frontal wave will tighten the
thermal structure across the boundary, with associated frontogenesis
and deformation supporting an area of showers moving from southwest
to northeast across the area late tonight through the first half of
Thursday. There may be just enough elevated instability to support a
few isolated thunderstorms, mainly across the Southern Tier and
Finger Lakes.

PWAT values will rise to near 2.0" along and south of the stalled
boundary, and the frontal zone laying out parallel to the mid level
flow also fits the conceptual model for locally heavy rainfall from
training heavy showers. Most of the recent CAMS guidance suggests
this potential is relatively higher across Ohio and PA, with a lower
risk extending into the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

The showers will gradually end from west to east Thursday afternoon
and evening, with mainly dry weather returning to Western NY by
early evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A brief period of drier, cooler conditions is
expected Thursday night through Saturday morning.

The frontal zone will accelerate southeast and away from the region
Thursday night as high pressure builds southeast across Ontario and
Quebec. This high will bring a return to dry weather Thursday night
through Saturday morning. Modest cold advection behind the front
will bring slightly below average temperatures to close out the
week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Another period of unsettled weather develops late
Saturday and continues through early next week.

Another Pacific origin shortwave will round the top of the large
ridge of the south central US over the weekend, with increasing
forcing and moisture transport spreading east across the Great Lakes
region. Based on latest model timing, first rain chances will arrive
in Western NY by Saturday afternoon, then spread east across the
remainder of the area Saturday night.

Several waves of low pressure are then forecast to move east over
the southern Great Lakes region through early next week. Model and
ensemble guidance begins to diverge on the placement and timing of
the frontal zone and various waves of low pressure by Sunday and
Monday. The pattern will need to be monitored for heavy rain risk,
given the elongated east-west frontal zone laying out parallel to
the mid level flow with ample moisture poised just south of the
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An east-west frontal zone will continue to sag slowly southward
towards the NY/PA border through this evening. A few scattered
showers and patchy drizzle will continue, mainly across the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes. Areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS will continue across
the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, while the
lower elevations of the lake plains and North Country improve to
mainly VFR.

Overnight, a wave of low pressure will ripple east down the stalled
frontal zone, forcing it to move back north into the southern
portions of Western and Central NY. Increased forcing for ascent and
moisture convergence associated with the frontal wave will produce
an area of showers moving from southwest to northeast across the
area very late tonight through the first half of Thursday. Pockets
of moderate to heavy rain will produce some VSBY restrictions, and
low stratus will expand late tonight through Thursday morning with
MVFR for lower elevations and IFR higher terrain. Some of the low
stratus may intersect the higher terrain with IFR VSBY in hilltop
fog/mountain obscuration.

The showers will taper off from west to east Thursday afternoon and
evening, with gradual improvement in CIGS later in the day.

Outlook...

Friday...MVFR CIGS early, improving to VFR.

Saturday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR late Saturday through
Saturday night with rain becoming likely.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR with rain likely.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers, mainly across the
Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal boundary will stall just south of the lower Great Lakes
through Thursday, with north to northeast winds in the 10-15 knot
range producing a light to moderate chop on both lakes. The front
will accelerate southeast and away from the area Thursday night
through Friday as high pressure builds southeast across Ontario and
Quebec, with northwest winds continuing to produce a light to
moderate chop. Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria through at least Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock