111
FXUS61 KBUF 141845
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
245 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will exit tonight with any showers or isolated
thunderstorms ending late this afternoon. Dry weather expected
tonight and Tuesday behind the front, though there will be some
fog late tonight. Heat and humidity return by mid week with
scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak cold front continuing to move through the region this afternoon
and should exit south and east of the area by late this afternoon or
early this evening. Lingering moisture and building instability will
support some showers or an isolated thunderstorm through late
afternoon, mainly along convergence boundaries and interior sections
of the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes. Some hazy skies may
exist with smoke particles filtering in from the northwest.

Behind the cold front, weak surface ridging builds into the region
tonight. Skies should gradually clear out from the northwest.
Light winds and lingering low level moisture will likely lead to
areas of fog late tonight into early Tuesday, especially across
the western Southern Tier and southeast of Lake Ontario.

Dry weather will last through Tuesday. Heat and humidity will
start to build back into the region with high temperatures
reaching the mid to upper 80s with the warmest heat index
values reaching the lower 90s, along the lake plains, Genesee
Valley and Finger Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough lifting northeast out of northern Illinois and
Indiana into the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Thursday,
will support weak surface wave to travel north out of the Ohio
Valley and across New York State and into New England Wednesday and
into Thursday. This being said, associated ascent and moisture will
advect into the forecast area resulting in a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. The best chance for activity will lie from the
western Southern Tier towards the Finger Lakes during peak diurnal
heating, so mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours. Ahead
of the thunderstorm potential, a hot and humid airmass will remain
overhead of the region Wednesday supporting heat indices in the mid
90s and approaching 100 at times, especially across the lake plains,
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. While increasing cloud cover
may suppress heating, there continues to be medium confidence that
upper 90s heat indices will be reached.


The aforementioned shortwave trough will merge with the longwave
trough passing across the northern Plains and into the Upper Great
Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Then Thursday, the
longwave trough will trudge east across the central Great Lakes
towards the eastern Great Lakes. As a result, a surface cold front
will approach the region from the northwest Wednesday night and
Thursday, before crossing the region Thursday night. Timing of these
features continue to have some discrepancies. However with the
discrepancies, showers and thunderstorms will be possible due to the
warm muggy airmass already in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Longwave troughing will be in the midst of crossing the eastern
Great Lakes and Northeast Friday before zonal flow briefly graces
the region Saturday. Troughing will then return to the Great Lakes
and New England Sunday and Monday.

A cold front associated with the first longwave trough will cross
the area Friday, supporting continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Additionally, the passage of the front will provide
some relief to the heat and humidity.

Aforementioned zonal flow will support surface high pressure to
settle in across the Great Lakes for the start of the weekend. The
surface high will then exit east towards the Atlantic coast Sunday
as troughing moves back into the Great Lakes supporting the next
surface low to track from the central Great Lakes and across New
England through Monday. As a result, the potential for showers and
thunderstorms return to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low end VFR or patchy MVFR ceilings will continue this afternoon as
a weak cold front continues to push through the region. Skies will
gradually clear out from northwest to southeast through this
evening. Any thunderstorms through this afternoon will be isolated
with little confidence if any will impact any TAF site.

HRRR/RAP smoke model suggesting some potential for smoke/haze to
bring in some possible vsby restrictions or obscuration. This is
currently happening this afternoon at a few sites (KIAG and
KART). There is low confidence on how long this will last into
tonight.

VFR will prevail tonight, however areas of fog will develop in a low
level moist environment with clearing skies and light winds. The
greatest confidence in IFR conditions is at the KJHW terminal.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions are expected on the lower Great Lakes through the
Tuesday with winds variable under 10 knots. Could see a more
predominately southerly flow behind the passage of a warm front
Wednesday, but winds should remain below 10 knots.

Next chance for increased winds will be Thursday behind a passing
cold front with southwesterly winds pickup up to 15 knots with waves
getting into the 2-3 foot range at times. There will be greater
potential for thunderstorms during this time, so winds and waves
could be higher in those instances.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>007-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA