996
FXUS61 KBUF 250817
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
417 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will return today and then last into
Wednesday. Along with it...there will be increasing chances of
showers and some thunderstorms, especially on Wednesday. Cooler less
humid conditions Thursday through Friday but dry weather. Active
weather makes a return Saturday as a cold front crosses the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quiet weather will be maintain area wide this morning. The axis of
the sfc ridge will exit off to our east today. Return southerly flow
is advertised to then pick up this afternoon with wind gusts up to
30 mph across Western NY. That said...a warm frontal segment is
advertised to cross the region which may introduce a shower or an
isolated thunderstorm. There is also some indication that the
remnants of the upstream convection (MCS) from overnight will
possibly make it into the region. HRRR and all hi-res guidance bring
it into Western NY but in a very weakened state. Eitherway...we
still can`t rule out some showers or a thunderstorm as this wave
works through the region. The best shot will be across the North
Country and St. Lawrence valley where higher PoPs have been placed.

Otherwise...highs today will be found mainly in the 80s, with the
warmer spots in the mid to upper 80s.

Tonight...the cold front will drop south into the region with
additional chances for some showers or a isolated thunderstorm. The
best chances will again be found again across the North Country
closer to the support from the upper-level jet. In terms of low
temps...we should see mercury reading fall back into the 60s by
sunrise Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Wednesday low pressure over northern Quebec and Labrador will
gradually pivot its trailing cold front southeastward across our
area. During the morning and very early afternoon hours...this
feature should be largely starved for much in the way of support...
and thus will probably only produce some scattered showers and
perhaps a couple of thunderstorms as it makes its way roughly to/
just south of the I-90 corridor. After that time...a wave of low
pressure will ripple northeastward along the boundary and slow its
southward progress through the balance of the day...while also
providing a notable uptick in moisture and large-scale ascent. This
should translate into showers and some storms becoming more numerous
to widespread across the Southern Tier and interior of the Finger
Lakes Region during the afternoon and early evening hours...while
more scattered pcpn should be found further north along the northern
periphery of the passing wave. Given continued uncertainty in the
timing/positioning of the frontal boundary...the amount of available
instability during this more active portion of Wednesday remains
rather questionable at this time. This being said...if sufficient
instability is realized can see at least a lower-end risk for an
isolated stronger storm or two across the Southern Tier given the
presence of sufficient shear...which lines up well with the Marginal
Risk for severe storms advertised by SPC in the latest Day 2
Convective Outlook. With PWATs also temporarily surging to around
1.5 inches...there will also be at least some threat for heavy
rainfall with any storms...with this risk again greatest across the
western Southern Tier which will lie closest to the track of the
passing wave. With respect to temperatures...these should range from
the mid 70s to lower 80s...with humid conditions out ahead of the
front becoming somewhat less so following the passage of the
boundary.

Wednesday night a shortwave trough will slide across our region
while escorting the initial wavy cold frontal boundary and any
deeper moisture/attendant threat for heavier rain off to our south
and east...resulting in a commensurate northwest-to-southeast
decrease in pcpn potential. In its wake...a much weaker and moisture-
starved secondary cold front will slide across our area later
Wednesday night and early Thursday...while possibly bringing a few
more widely scattered showers to the North Country and far eastern
Finger Lakes. Yet another shortwave will then dive across Southern
Ontario and Saint Lawrence Valley Thursday afternoon and evening...
and this in tandem with some weak diurnally-driven instability could
lead to a yet few more widely scattered showers across the North
Country. Otherwise generally dry and uneventful weather will
predominate across our region from the second half of Wednesday
night through Thursday...though the influx of cooler air and
developing upslope flow behind the passing fronts will probably lead
to at least some lower clouds hanging around into Thursday morning.
As for temps...the incoming cooler/drier airmass will bring about
much more comfortable conditions for Wednesday night and Thursday...
with lows Wednesday night generally between 55 and 60...and highs on
Thursday mostly ranging from the upper 60s across the higher terrain
to the lower 70s elsewhere.

Expansive Canadian high pressure will then build directly across our
area Thursday night...then will drift east into New England on
Friday. This will provide us with fair dry weather to close out the
work week. Excellent conditions for radiational cooling will allow
lows to settle into the mid-upper 40s across the interior Southern
Tier/North Country and to the lower-mid 50s elsewhere Thursday
night...with a developing southerly return flow on the backside of
the departing ridge then allowing highs to recover to the mid 70s
across the North Country and the upper 70s-lower 80s elsewhere on
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quasi-zonal flow remains in place through this period...with another
mid-level trough and elongated attendant wave of low pressure (along
with its associated warm and cold fronts) still looking to pass
across the area this weekend. While the usual differences in timing
persist amongst the medium range guidance...in general a loose
consensus continues to suggest that pcpn chances will begin to
return later Friday night and then ramp up during Saturday...with
the best likelihood for showers/storms still looking to come
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening in tandem with the approach
and passage of the primary cold front. Depending upon its timing...a
trailing secondary cold frontal boundary could then keep the chances
for some showers around into Sunday...before dry weather returns
Sunday night and Monday. Otherwise...warmer and more humid
conditions out ahead of this system will once again give way to
cooler and more comfortable weather on its backside.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR expected to remain across all area terminals today. South
to southwest winds pick up today across far western terminals to
include KBUF, KIAG, and KJHW. Winds up to 30 knots will be possible.
There is also the chance of some showers as remnants of the upstream
MCS crosses the region. With it...ceilings will begin to lower, with
some MVFR Cigs by this evening.

Tonight...a mix of VFR/MVFR Cigs will be found across most area
terminals. Lower Cigs (IFR) may materialize across the S. Tier to
include KJHW, along with some patchy fog producing lower vsbys.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers most area terminals.
Showers and a chance of thunderstorm across the Southern Tier.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...Localized restrictions with shower likely and a chance of
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A south to southwest wind flow picks up across Lake Erie and the
western end of Lake Ontario today. Waves will be offshore, but a
period of Small Craft conditions will develop this afternoon into
the evening. SCAs have been issue for Lake Erie beginning at 16Z
though 03Z this evening. There will also be a chance of some
showers, this as a pair of fronts cross the region through tonight.
Winds will also remain elevated on area lakes tonight producing
light to moderate chop on both lakes.

Lighter winds and wave action is expected Wednesday but there may be
better coverage of shower and storm for Lake Erie.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening
         for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JM/JJR
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR