189
FXUS61 KBUF 041104
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
604 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near record warmth today with dry weather continuing through late
afternoon.

2) Showers return tonight, with unsettled weather and cooler
temperatures lasting through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record warmth today with dry weather continuing
through late afternoon.

A mid-level ridge will continue to build east across the Atlantic
seaboard through mid-week, supporting surface high pressure to
persist off the eastern Atlantic. Overall this will support a
continuation of dry weather through late this afternoon with periods
of mid/high clouds drifting across the region.

A belt of 25-30 knot southerly flow in the boundary layer will bring
some increase in winds today, most notably along the lee slopes of
the Chautauqua Ridge this morning where downslope winds may gust to
30 mph at times.

As the upper ridge builds further north Wednesday, 850mb
temperatures will continue to rise, peaking between +14C to +15C.
The anomalous warmth aloft will combine with some filtered sunshine,
mechanical mixing from the southerly breeze, and downslope
compressional warming to boost temperatures into the mid to upper
70s across lower elevations. See Climate section for more
information regarding record temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers return tonight, with unsettled weather and
cooler temperatures lasting through next weekend.

Deep troughing and associated closed low will move into the Great
Lakes for the later half of the work week. A deep southerly flow
originating from the Gulf and southern Atlantic Ocean will support a
plume of moisture into the eastern Great Lakes region tonight into
Thursday morning. This deep moisture combined with forcing from the
surface to 500mb due to a passing cold front will support widespread
showers across the region, and provide some modest relief to the
recent dry spell. Rainfall amounts will not be overly impressive
however given the fast motion of the system and narrow axis of
moisture. Most areas will see 0.25" or less of rain tonight.

In the wake of the cold front, expect gusty southwest winds
northeast of Lake Erie with gusts of 25 to 35 mph impacting much of
the Niagara Frontier on Thursday.

The trough will move overhead Friday and persist into the weekend,
possibly evolving into a slow moving mid level low by late Friday
through Saturday over the eastern Great Lakes. The trough and
associated forcing and moisture will support a chance of showers
Friday into the weekend. Ongoing cold advection will also bring a
notable downward trend in temperatures, with highs this weekend back
to near average after the exceptional warmth this week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 12Z, VFR conditions will persist through this afternoon area
wide, despite a few areas of mid to high level clouds advecting
across the area this morning beneath the warm sector. An approaching
cold front this afternoon and evening will support clouds to thicken
and lower around 00Z from west to east.

With the passing cold front tonight, clouds will continue to lower
to MVFR and higher terrain IFR, along will supporting widespread
showers. The potential for showers will then persist overnight into
Thursday morning.


Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of a few showers.

Saturday through Sunday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely at
times.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will deepen as it moves to Wisconsin today, before
crossing the upper Great Lakes tonight and reaching Quebec Thursday.
Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes
tonight through early Thursday morning. Southerly winds will run in
the 10-15 knot range today with a light to moderate chop in offshore
waters on both lakes.

South winds will increase further tonight, then become southwest
Thursday behind the cold front. This may bring a period of Small
Craft Advisory conditions, with the best chance on Lake Erie. Winds
will diminish Thursday night through Friday as the low over Quebec
elongates and weakens.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A long stretch of very dry weather continues across the region,
with minimal rainfall over the past three weeks, leaving fine
fuels and leaf litter very dry across the region.

Dry weather will continue today along with near record warmth.
A southerly breeze will increase into the 10 to 20 mph range
with some higher gusts. Afternoon minimum relative humidity may
drop into the 40 to 45 percent range.

A cold front will then cross the region tonight, bringing a
period of beneficial rain to the region. Rainfall amounts will
be light, with 0.25" or less in most areas. Another system will
cross the eastern Great Lakes late Friday through the weekend
with additional rain chances, along with cooler temperatures and
higher relative humidity.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Unusually warm weather across western and north-central New York
is expected today. Forecast temperatures are expected to be
around 20 degrees above normal for part of the first week of
November. Here is a list of record high temperatures, record
high minimum temperatures, and normals for today.

                 Record High Temperatures(F)

                        Buffalo     Rochester    Watertown

Wednesday, November 4   74(2022)    78(2015)     73(2015)
Normal                  52          54           51

              Record Warm Minimum Temperatures(F)

                        Buffalo     Rochester    Watertown

Wednesday, November 4   57(1935)    58(1987)     56(1987)
Normal                  38          38           33

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EAL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAL/Hitchcock
FIRE WEATHER...EAL/Hitchcock
CLIMATE...EAL/HSK