152
FXUS61 KBUF 281142
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
642 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air flowing across the open waters of the lower Great Lakes
will continue to support localized heavy lake effect snow east and
southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario through tonight, along with
brisk winds that will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Lake snows will weaken later tonight into Saturday morning as
transient high pressure crosses the area bringing a brief period of
mainly dry weather on Saturday, before another area of low pressure
brings a round of light rain and snow later Saturday night and
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...

A deep upper level trough resides across the Great Lakes region and
Northeast this morning. Cool, moist cyclonic flow will continue to
move across the relatively warm lakes and heavy lake effect snow
will remain focused east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. A cold
front/surface trough axis will move through the forecast area this
morning. Winds will veer and focus lake effect snow southeast of the
Lakes today into tonight. Breezy conditions will continue across the
region as low pressure slowly moves across northern Quebec. West-
northwest wind gusts will increase behind the wind shift, however
magnitude will be less than the recent wind event. Wind gusts will
average 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 40mph near the lakeshores.
Surface high pressure will approach the region from the south
tonight and snow showers will diminish in coverage and intensity
through Saturday.

Off Lake Erie... A strong upstream connection to Lake Huron is
apparent on regional radar this morning. Multi-band lake effect
snow will continue south of Buffalo and the western Southern
Tier through this evening. Snowfall rates will average 1-2" per
hour, especially across the higher terrain where temperatures
remain below freezing today. Additional localized snow
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches is expected across southern
Erie, Wyoming and the western Southern Tier through tonight. A
Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect until 1AM tonight.
Outside of the warning area, snow showers are possible and may
produce minor accumulations of a dusting to two inches today.
Snow showers diminish in coverage and intensity tonight and come
to an end Saturday morning.

Off Lake Ontario...A semi-organized lake effect snow band
extends from the southern lakeshore into Oswego and Lewis
counties this morning. As winds veer, the main axis of the lake
band will settle across Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southern
Oswego counties through tonight. An upstream connection to
Georgian Bay will enhance the band today, with thunder possible
near the lakeshore and snowfall rates around 1-2"/hour. The edge
of the band will likely brush the southern shore of Lake Ontario
from Orleans to Monroe at times today and may produce a few
inches of snow. Upslope snow showers will continue on the Tug
Hill. Snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches are possible
southeast of Lake Ontario, with 6 to 12" on the Tug Hill. Mostly
dry weather is expected across the Saint Lawrence Valley
through Saturday. The lake effect band will diminish tonight
through Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Another low pressure system advances northeast towards the central
Great Lakes Saturday night, then passes by to our west and northwest
on Sunday. Warm frontal precipitation will overspread the Lower Lakes
Saturday night bringing some widespread light accumulating snow to
the area. It will then potentially transition over to a mix of rain-
snow Sunday, especially for lower elevations as boundary layer temps
rise into the mid-upper 30s to low 40s.

In terms of snowfall amounts...1-3" possible across most of the
area, with the potential for 3-5" for the higher terrain of the Tug
Hill.

The sfc low exits northeast off into southwest Quebec by Sunday
evening with CAA behind the cold front dropping H850 T`s down to
-10C to -13C overnight.

Lake effect wise...it looks like we will have a `narrow` window for
accumulating snows Sunday evening. Wind flow quickly veers to the
west and then west-northwest directing any lake snows east and
southeast of the lakes. High pressure rapidly building in and also a
drier airmass advecting into the region will then begin to limit
snowfall accumulations Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake snows east and southeast of the lakes will end early Monday
morning. Transitory surface high slides overhead Monday afternoon
bringing a very brief period of quiet weather.

A shortwave cutting across the nations mid-section and gulf moisture
will potentially work in concert to spawn a coastal low Monday night
through Tuesday. However...model certainty still remains high as
some guidance show the low further off the coast, but the
possibility for the northwestern precipitation shield to cross the
area is still present. This system exits off to our northeast
Wednesday, with a brief break ahead of the next cold front which
brings in a much colder airmass to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Heavy lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario through this evening. A mix of MVFR/IFR flight conditions
are expected within the lake effect snow activity, with LIFR in the
heavier snow bands/showers. An organized single band off Lake
Ontario will slowly drift south through the morning hours. The band
will persist southeast of Lake Ontario with snowfall rates of
1-2"hr. TAF sites should be sparred from the most intense bands
today, however snow showers may brush KROC at times. Multi-
bands off Lake Erie will mainly impact areas south of KBUF
including KJHW today. A few bands from upstream lakes may move
into KIAG and KBUF today, however confidence is low of IFR or
below. Outside of lake effect snow, VFR conditions are expected.

Westerly winds will continue to diminish early this morning. Winds
will increase Friday, with gusts 25 to 35 knots. The higher gusts
will be near the lakeshores, especially at KROC.

Lake effect snow will diminish in coverage and intensity
tonight. MVFR conditions are expected to persist east of the
Lakes, with VFR outside of lake clouds.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Heavier lake
effect snow with IFR/LIFR southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Saturday...Lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes with
local MVFR/IFR early, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Sunday...MVFR with a rain/wet snow mix. Very windy.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in limited lake effect snow east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A deep area of low pressure will slowly move east across Quebec
today, producing an extended period of gales on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions will be found on the
Niagara River. Winds will diminish below gales on Lake Erie late
this morning and on Lake Ontario tonight, then winds will quickly
drop off Saturday as high pressure builds into the eastern Great
Lakes.

Another strong low pressure system is forecast to move across the
central Great Lakes Sunday. This may bring another round of gales to
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ004>006.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ007-
     008-012-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/JM
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK/JM