847
FXUS61 KBUF 120000
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
700 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue tonight, becoming a more concentrated
single band as a southwest flow aligns through the night. Through
early Wednesday morning a few inches of wet snow is likely in
the Buffalo and Niagara Falls Metro areas, as well as Watertown
and communities to the north before warming through the day
changes falling snow over to a cold rain. Mid to late week
warming will change the bulk of the precipitation back to plain
rain as unsettled weather ends just before the start of the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow will increase tonight ahead of a shortwave trough
diving through the Great Lakes region. A developing southwest flow
should consolidate a singular plume of snow off Lake Erie, near
Buffalo later this evening and then lift towards Niagara and Orleans
counties through the night. Lake snows east of Lake Ontario near the
Tug will lift northward as well towards northern Jefferson late
tonight.

A brief period of wet, moderate snow will accumulate before a
southerly flow/warm air advection warms the boundary layer
sufficiently for a change over from snow to plain rain Wednesday
morning. A winter weather advisory will be in place northeast of
both lakes to account for this snow activity.

As the shortwave trough passes Wednesday morning the band of lake
effect snow/rain is expected to drop southward of both lakes with a
cold rain for lower terrain, while higher peaks east of both lakes
may still see a little snow mix in with the rain through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the larger and persistent trough over the region starts to shift
east, a shortwave trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes
on Thursday morning. This will cause showers to continue across much
of the area, especially east/southeast of both Lake Erie & Ontario
with lake enhancement/effect expected.  Precipitation will linger
for most of the day on Thursday, with some tapering off of showers
for areas south of Lake Ontario by the late afternoon. With slightly
warmer temperatures compared to earlier in the week, most of the
precipitation is expected to fall as rain. Mixing with and changing
to snow is expected across the higher elevations for Thursday.
Snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected for areas of the
higher terrain, especially across the Tug Hill.

Rain and snow showers will remain primarily east of Lake Ontario
Thursday night into Friday, with a few showers possible south of
the lake. Showers will slowly taper off from west to east as the
lingering trough over the region finally pushes east, and ridging
builds into the area. Any remaining showers will either dissipate or
push east of the area by late Friday evening. Additional snowfall on
Thursday night and Friday should be limited to the higher terrain
east of Lake Ontario and amount to around an inch.

Temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the mid 30s to mid
40s from the higher terrain to the lower elevations respectively,
for both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An amplified pattern to start this period will be impinged upon by
the northern branch of the jet stream, allowing the next storm
system to bear down upon our region by the close of the weekend.

While the weekend will start dry with surface high pressure nearby,
a southerly, mild flow combined with Pacific moisture from the west
will bring light rain across our region Saturday night and Sunday,
followed by a cold front/mid level shortwave trough later Sunday
that will maintain chances for showers through Sunday night through
Monday. As temperatures aloft Monday cool lake enhanced rain and
snow will become possible.

A southern stream closed low over the desert southwest early in the
weekend will open up and advance south of our region Tuesday...with
downstream ridging/dry air likely to end the lake response Monday
night and into Tuesday. However there is still a lot of uncertainty
temporally and spatially with this closed low...lending to a lot of
uncertainty to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Backing winds will develop singular lake plume northeast of the
lakes tonight into Wednesday morning, with the snowband lifting past
KBUF towards KIAG, and also lifting past KART. A mid level shortwave
trough, reflected at the surface will send these snowbands back
southward, including KBUF/KROC and KART just before 12Z, while
warming in the mid layers will change falling snow over to rain,
first off Lake Erie just past 12Z, and later around 15Z east of
Lake Ontario. Expect IFR and lower visibilities and ceiling
heights within these bands of lake effect, with MVFR to VFR
flight conditions outside the bands.

Visibilities will improve Wednesday with predominately rain for the
TAF sites, though a deck of low end MVFR to IFR ceiling heights will
remain.

Southwest winds on Wednesday, especially on the periphery of these
lake effect bands will gust into the low 20 knot range.

Outlook...

Thursday...Areas of MVFR with rain and snow showers likely,
especially southeast and east of the lakes.

Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for rain and snow showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly mixing with
freezing rain east of Lake Ontario at onset.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface low over Quebec will continue to deepen through tonight as
is slowly wobbles to Newfoundland Canada. This will allow for gusty
winds to continue on the lower Great Lakes, with winds backing to
southwesterly tonight and Wednesday. This southwest flow up Lake
Erie may reach gale force, for which a gale warning is in effect
through late tonight. Otherwise small craft advisories will be in
place.

Waves are expected to remain 4 feet and greater through Thursday
evening on the eastern Great Lakes, and not until Friday when
surface high pressure approaches the lower Great Lakes will winds
and waves fall below small craft conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ001-
     002-010.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Thomas/TMA