030
FXUS61 KBUF 160752
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
352 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
today into tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible Monday.

2.) Dry weather likely Monday night and Tuesday.

3.) Another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms forecast for the midweek period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected today into tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible Monday.

A high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft continues to
exit E`ward this morning. In the wake of the ridge, cyclonic
W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs
impact Western and Central NY the rest of today through Monday.
At the surface, a primary low should wobble ENE`ward across
northern ON, James Bay, and northern QC today through early
Monday evening. Accordingly, a warm front should drift NE`ward
across our CWA this afternoon through evening and usher-in a
warmer and more humid air mass originating over the Gulf. A cold
front should then sweep E`ward through our region tonight
through about midday Monday. Behind the cold front, a lake-aggregate
trough lingers over the eastern Great Lakes and vicinity,
including our CWA, as a ridge attempts to build from the Upper
Midwest and vicinity.

Fair weather is now expected to persist through daybreak in our
CWA. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
periods of heavy rainfall are expected late this morning through
tonight as weak to perhaps moderate CAPE, including elevated
CAPE, is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the warm front, low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the surface warm and cold fronts,
and as downshear gust fronts interact favorably with low-level
vertical wind shear amidst primarily moderate deep-layer bulk
shear. Cannot rule-out a severe storm or two capable of producing
damaging straight-line wind gusts this afternoon and early
evening, when diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer
amidst peeks of sunshine should yield appreciable boundary layer
CAPE and DCAPE near 500-700 J/kg per latest trends in higher-res
model soundings. Behind the cold front, isolated rain showers
should occur tonight into Monday since subtle shortwave troughs
and attendant surface trough axes will traverse Western and
Central NY generally from west to east. Low-level convergence
and moist ascent along the surface trough axes should release at
least weak potential instability in the lowest ~1 km AGL. A few
thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and early evening,
when the same lifting mechanisms may release weak boundary layer
CAPE stemming from daytime warming. Showers and thunderstorms
on Monday should end by sunset, following the onset of boundary
layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling.

High temperatures should reach the mid 70`s to mid 80`s this
afternoon. The warmest highs are expected along the lake plains
and the middle and northern portions of the Genesee Valley. Lows
should reach mainly the upper 50`s to mid 60`s around daybreak
Monday. Late afternoon highs should reach the 70`s to lower 80`s
on Monday, behind the weak cold front.

Key Message 2...Dry weather likely Monday night and Tuesday.

High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft should build
from the western Great Lakes and vicinity Monday night through
Tuesday. Stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge is
expected to promote dry weather. Considerable clearing and weak
or calm surface winds accompanying the ridge should contribute
to lows reaching the 50`s to lower 60`s around daybreak Tuesday.
Steam fog should form in the river and lake valleys of the
Western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and Eastern Lake Ontario
Region during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning. Patchy
radiation fog should also form, especially inland from Lakes
Erie and Ontario, amidst lingering low-level moisture from the
expected rainfall. Fog will dissipate via the onset of diurnal
convective mixing of the boundary layer shortly after daybreak.
Highs are forecast to reach the 70`s to lower 80`s late Tuesday
afternoon.

Key Message 3...Another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms forecast for the midweek period.

The above-mentioned ridge at the surface and aloft exits E`ward
Tuesday night and allows a warm front to sweep N`ward through
Western and Central NY. Simultaneously, cyclonic W`erly flow
aloft becomes established over our area and embedded shortwave
disturbances traverse Western and Central NY. The cyclonic
W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should
continue to affect our area Wednesday through Wednesday night,
and a cold front should sweep E`ward through Western and
Central NY. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected after midnight Tuesday night through Wednesday night as
weak to perhaps moderate CAPE, included elevated CAPE, is
released by the following: moist isentropic ascent along the
upper-reaches of the warm front and ahead of shortwave trough
axes; low-level convergence and moist ascent along the surface
warm front, surface cold front, and surface trough axes
attendant to the shortwave troughs. Overnight lows should reach
mainly the mid 50`s to mid 60`s Tuesday night and be followed by
daytime highs in the 70`s on Wednesday. Overnight lows should
reach the upper 40`s to near 60F around daybreak Thursday as a
cooler air mass overspreads our region behind the cold front.
Latest trends in NWP model guidance suggest the cooler air mass
behind the cold front will be too dry to support a period of
lake-effect rain.

Fair weather is expected region-wide by this Thursday as a ridge
at the surface and aloft builds from the western Great Lakes
and vicinity, and is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence.
Highs should reach the 70`s in most of our CWA as a cooler air
mass lingers. However, highs may reach only the upper 60`s
along the higher hilltops of the Western Southern Tier and
higher points of the Tug Hill Plateau.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will slide east into New England tonight, before
sliding off the New England coast Sunday morning. This will maintain
widespread VFR conditions through at least daybreak Sunday.

A warm front will then slowly approach western NY Sunday morning,
which will bring low VFR/MVFR conditions into the western Southern
Tier (KJHW) during the morning hours, while VFR flight conditions
persist across the remainder of western and north-central NY through
at midday or so. A surface wave will develop along the warm front,
as it ever so slowly progresses eastward into western NY Sunday
afternoon. This will bring deteriorating flight conditions through
the second half of Sunday, with low VFR to MVFR developing from
south to north across the remainder of the area south Lake Ontario
through the afternoon hours. Scattered showers and storms will also
develop Sunday with localized MVFR/IFR with any stronger storm,
especially during the afternoon.

Warm front moves through the North Country early Sunday evening
with MVFR conditions expected to finally develop there (KART),
while IFR starts to impact the higher terrain areas (KJHW).
Brief flight reductions in showers and storms will also continue
across the area into Sunday evening in advance of an
approaching cold front.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse
conditions expected.

Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance for isolated rain showers.

Monday Night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Overnight/early morning
river valley fog possible supporting localized MVFR to LIFR
conditions across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes and eastern Lake
Ontario region.

Wednesday...MVFR conditions possible with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are
expected through this Thursday. A warm front should drift
NE`ward across eastern Lake Erie late this morning through
early afternoon and across Lake Ontario this evening. The warm
front passage will cause SE`erly winds to veer to SW`erly. A
cold front then sweeps eastward across eastern Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario tonight and causes SW`erly winds to veer to NW`erly.

Behind the cold front, a trough lingers over the lakes on
Monday before a high pressure ridge builds from the Upper
Midwest and vicinity Monday night. Winds are expected to vary
between W`erly and N`erly. Note: periodic showers and
thunderstorms should impact Lakes Erie and Ontario this
afternoon through Monday. Showers and especially storms may
produce localized/brief strong winds and larger waves.

On Tuesday, the ridge axis should move E`ward across eastern
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and cause winds to back to SW`erly.
A cold front should sweep SE`ward across eastern Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario Wednesday through Wednesday night and cause SW`erly
winds to veer to NW`erly to N`erly. Behind the cold front, a
ridge should build from the western Great Lakes through Thursday
and be accompanied by mainly W`erly to N`erly winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jaszka
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Jaszka