794
FXUS61 KBUF 202346
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
746 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Below normal temperatures will continue through most of the
upcoming week, with a few showers possible at times mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures will continue through most
of the upcoming week, with a few showers possible at times mid-week.

Surface high pressure over Ontario will build into the eastern Great
Lakes region today. Waves of low pressure will move along a surface
trough from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region through
tonight. Drier air will continue to spread from north to south
across the forecast area. Regional radar shows rain approaching from
southern Michigan to eastern Ohio this afternoon. As the high builds
in from the north, rain is expected to dive southeast into western
Pennsylvania through this evening. A few widely scattered showers
can`t be ruled out across the western Southern Tier, however
mostly dry weather is expected across the forecast area.

An elongated area of high pressure across Ontario and Quebec
Provinces will persist through much of the work week. An easterly
flow will support cool weather with daytime highs in the 60s, 50s
across the higher terrain. Monday and Tuesday are expected to be the
coolest days of the week. Weak troughing to zonal flow will set-up
across the region with a closed low over the mid-west through the
week. Subsidence and dry air will maintain mostly dry weather across
the region, however there are a few periods where a few showers may
move into western NY. Beginning late Monday, a shortwave trough is
expected to approach the region from the southwest. While isentropic
lift and deeper moisture is expected to stay south of the forecast
area, mid-high level moisture will support a few showers across the
Southern Tier. A weak 850mb low is expected to develop over the Ohio
Valley and remain nearly stationary mid-week. An easterly flow off
the Atlantic will create cloudy conditions across western NY, with
the potential for scattered showers near the NY/PA border. Outside
of the western Southern Tier, mostly dry weather is expected through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cyclonic W`erly to WNW`erly flow aloft, embedded disturbances,
and widespread mid-level to primarily upper-level cloudiness
generated by those disturbances affect Western and Central NY
through 00Z/Tues. At the surface, a ridge continues to build
into our area as the parent high pressure center wobbles E`ward
from northern ON to west-central QC. Our regional surface winds
trend NE`erly around 5 to 15 knots through the TAF period.

The aforementioned surface ridge is expected to be accompanied
by primarily dry weather and VFR visibility through the TAF
period. However, mid-level cloudiness associated with the
disturbances aloft may produce sprinkles across the Western
Southern Tier through ~02Z/Mon. N`erly to NE`erly mean low-level
flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air across the ~72F eastern
Great Lakes will allow isolated to widespread lake-effect and
upslope stratocumuli with bases near 1.5kft to 2kft AGL to
affect our region through ~15Z/Mon. The coverage of these low
clouds is expected to be greatest between ~08Z/Mon and ~15Z/Mon.
During late Monday morning through 00Z/Tues, scattered to
widespread low clouds with bases near 2.5fkt to 3.5kft AGL are
expected over western and central NY as diurnal destabilization
and associated convective mixing of the boundary layer allow
stratocumuli to evolve into cumuli.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday night...Periodic rain showers
with MVFR possible, especially across the Western Southern Tier.

Thursday and Friday...Dry weather and mainly VFR expected. Fog
possible in interior Western and Central NY at and around
daybreak Friday, especially in/near river and lake valleys.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will move south across Ontario and Quebec
tonight through mid-week. The pressure gradient will tighten and
northeasterly flow will increase creating small craft advisory
conditions from the Niagara River to the Saint Lawrence River late
tonight. As the flow veers more easterly, winds will diminish and
move offshore from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River and small
craft advisory conditions will lapse Monday night. A prolonged
period of steady easterly flow will support small craft conditions
from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay through Tuesday, and from the Niagara
River to Hamlin Beach through Wednesday.

Northeast winds will increase on the eastern end of Lake Erie later
tonight, with near SCA conditions developing late, especially from
Ripley to Dunkirk. Northeast winds will strengthen further Monday
with a period of SCA conditions likely through Tuesday afternoon or
evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through
     Wednesday evening for NYZ001-002.
     Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through
     Wednesday morning for NYZ003-004.
     Beach Hazards Statement from midnight EDT tonight through
     Monday evening for NYZ005-006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Monday
         for LOZ030-044-045.
         Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT
         Wednesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT
         Wednesday for LOZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...HSK/JM